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RSS icon Comments on 538's Final Projection

1

How accurate has this site been in past elections?

Posted by Wonder | November 4, 2008 11:58 AM
2

Looked to me like they were predicting 349-ish electoral votes.  In fact, I see it here in the quoted text.

Posted by lostboy | November 4, 2008 12:07 PM
3

Sorry, it's going to be around 380 to 381, actually.

But still, it was nice seeing someone do a reasonable statistical analysis ...

Posted by Will in Seattle | November 4, 2008 12:14 PM
4

fivethirtyeight.com has only been around for a few months. But Nate Silver has had a lot of success predicting baseball outcomes in the past...

Posted by leek | November 4, 2008 12:20 PM
5

Did you not even read what you posted? They're predicting 348.6 for Obama, not 353.

Posted by Seattle Mike | November 4, 2008 12:23 PM
6

Shouldn't maybe Golob be the one passing judgment on scientific methodology? I mean I'm not saying Dominic isn't qualified… ok, so actually I am.

Posted by Jason Petersen | November 4, 2008 12:26 PM
7

Considering the malfeasance of the touch screen voting machine companies (vote flipping,broken machines,etc, Republican SOS disenfranchisement of voters and republican hentchmen on the ground, I believe that if Obama is allowed to win, he'll get between 270 and 280.

Posted by neo-realist | November 4, 2008 12:32 PM
8

"Nate Silver has had a lot of success predicting baseball outcomes in the past..."

That doesn't make me feel much better.

Posted by Wonder | November 4, 2008 12:34 PM
9

Yeah, baseball outcomes aren't determined by touch-screen machines.

Posted by Greg | November 4, 2008 12:42 PM
10

@ 6) Agreed. Scientific methodology ain't my thing, but I'm not doing that. I'm posting the numbers from 538.

@ 2 and 5) In the final count, it's impossible to win a fraction of an electoral vote, or win a state a certain percent of the time. That's why I went with the integer 538 provided based on total electoral votes of states they foresee Obama winning, which add up to 353 electoral votes.

Posted by Dominic Holden | November 4, 2008 12:47 PM
11

Hey, I'm just suggesting that his methodology has some support, not that there's not voter fraud out there. Never MIND then!

Posted by leek | November 4, 2008 1:27 PM

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