Unlike in 2004, where democrats and republicans were about equal in voter registrations, democrats have a HUGE lead in this year's registered voters. A high turnout, just purely by the math, makes for an Obama victory.

Palin’s qualifications to be president rank as voters’ top concern about McCain’s candidacy - ahead of continuing President Bush’s policies, enacting economic policies that only benefit the rich and keeping too high of a troop presence in Iraq.".

News update: Americans Not as Dumb as Initially Feared

your enthusiasm information is a bit off. From Pollster.com:

"...Even in polls taken just before the 2004 election there wasn’t much difference: 67 percent of Bush voters said they supported him strongly, compared with just 49 percent of Kerry voters. And while 37 percent of likely Republican voters said they would be “excited” by a Bush win, just 24 percent of likely Democratic voters said they would be “excited” by a Kerry victory."

Your point is still spot-on. People celebrating as if an Obama victory is a sure-thing are morons, but that doesn't mean we don't have to recognize that Obama does have a few things going for him.

Jesus I don't want that used-car salesman Rossi as our governor.

I think this is wrong. I think early voting is great, but they should keep the ballots sealed until the election. Like mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots can arrive to election offices a week or so before the actual election, but they are not counted before the election. Or in cases where they are counted, the results aren't revealed until the polls close on election night.

When we hear numbers like this, some people may assume that Obama is 20% ahead, and their vote won't matter. So they might not bother showing up at all. This is very disenfranchising, and will wreak havoc on down-ballot races and issues.

I can understand why the pollsters and the candidates would love this data. But I think it should be kept under wraps until voting booths close on election night.

I don't comment much on polls for one reason: polls can say anything you want them to. I could commission a poll tomorrow that would show a majority of voters want Hugo Chavez for president of the USA. They're not worth a thing unless you look at the internals. Then, maybe, you can find out the real story.

So as you said: let's not get complacent. Well, that's not what you said. But it's what you meant.

Without a margin of error these polls mean zilch!