Slog News & Arts

Line Out

Music & Nightlife

« Gotcha, Suckers!!! | Big Sister Is Watching »

Sunday, October 12, 2008

That Didn’t Work…

posted by on October 12 at 16:05 PM

Next!

With just three weeks to go before polling day, the Republican presidential candidate is instead reportedly considering rolling out a range of measures on the economy this week. Mr McCain will target middle class voters, seeking to convince them that he can lead them out of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

After spending a week in a largely fruitless effort to hinder Mr Obama’s rise in the polls by attacking him on character issues, Mr McCain and his running mate Sarah Palin noticeably cooled their rhetoric over the weekend…

…Having earlier asked voters “Who is Barack Obama?” and demanded that the full story be told about his association with the former domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, Mr McCain softened his tone at a rally in Davenport, Iowa, on Saturday.

“Which candidate’s experience in government and in life makes him a more reliable leader for our country and commander in chief for our troops?” Mr McCain asked. “In short: Who’s ready to lead?”

A Reuters-CSPAN-Zogby tracking poll released on Sunday gave Mr Obama its largest lead so far, of six points. Other surveys have the Democrat ahead by up nine or ten points.

“He’s getting 19 per cent support among conservatives and 35 support among born-again or evangelical voters, which is pretty substantial. I wonder if the McCain campaign ought to be raising some red flags,” said pollster John Zogby.


Red flags? How about some white flags.

RSS icon Comments

1

I thought the Republicans had targeted the middle class voters long ago... for destruction.

Posted by just wondering | October 12, 2008 4:18 PM
2

Is this really a horse race as the media seems to want you to think of it. Look at 538. McCain has less than a 10 percent change of winning. Yes, "anything can happen", but:

"Only 23 days left, and Obama's lead is still secure. Importantly, he is at 280 "solid" electoral votes, which means he leads states worth 280 electoral votes by 7.0% or more.
Why is 7.0% an important number? According to a study I performed back in June that tested the methodlology I am currently using, a look at the 42 Senate, Governor and Presidential swing state campaigns decided by 10.0% or less since 2004 revealed that no final-week polling average had ever been off by more than 7.0%. In fact, only one average was off by more than 5.75% (the 2004 Kentucky Senate race), and only four were off by more than 4.2%. So, when a simple, statewide polling mean in a general election shows someone ahead by 7.0% or more, you can take it to the bank. A lead of this size will always hold up on Election Day.
The reason I choose 2.5% as the cut-off point for states to be either "Leaning" toward one party or to be "Toss-ups," is that the study showed that only 11 of the 42 elections in question had polling averages that were off by more than 2.5%. Since the error could turn in either direction, a lead of 2.6% or more indicates a 73 in 84 chance of victory, or roughly 85%. So, it is a good shot, but not a complete lock. The average error in the study was 2.0%, indicating that a state is still a toss-up at a margin of 2.0%.
I point this out to indicate just how solid Obama's lead is right now. With 280 electoral votes at 7.3% or greater, I would estimate his chances at victory to be well over 99%. State by state details in the extended entry."

Posted by hal | October 12, 2008 4:28 PM
3

If this is going to be the McCain strategy this week, the Obama campaign really needs to publicize something like this table which was in Parade magazine this weekend.

I think seeing something concrete like this would combat pretty much anything McCain could do to "target middle class voters."

Posted by Julie in Chicago | October 12, 2008 4:31 PM
4

@2. I think you're absolutely right.

I was at a campaign event this weekend, and David Plouffe (Obama's campaign manager) was talking about the states that the campaign considers to be solid Obama (WA, OR, CA, IL, MI, ME, NY, ME, VT, RI, CT, MA, NJ, DE, MD, HI) and the states that they consider to be Lean Obama (NM, MN, IA, WI, PA, VA, NH).

The Solid Obama states are 207 electoral votes, and the Lean Obama states are 70 electoral votes. That means that without winning a single battleground state Obama will win the election (they could even lose an IA, NM, or NH and still win). Though, of course, if Pennsylvania goes to McCain, then there is some catch-up that would need to be done.

He also said that the states the campaign considers battleground states are NV, MT, CO, MO, IN, OH, NC, and FL, and that they are considering making a play for some of the Lean McCain states like Georgia (other Lean McCains were ND, WV, GA, SC, AR, LA, MS).

Anyways, his speech was like a soothing balm on my psyche... Much better than Pollzac, or whatever it was that Eli was prescribing.

Posted by Julie in Chicago | October 12, 2008 4:42 PM
5

The McCain campaign needs to return to Republican core values to win this election. Namely, voter fraud.

Posted by flamingbanjo | October 12, 2008 4:47 PM
6

For a bunch of guys are are so sure of victory, the Obama campaigners seem to be leaving a lot of skid marks in their briefs.

We continue to ask: Who Is Barack Obama?

Where did he come from?

Who put him up to this?

And why?

All America can say is, Barry, We Hardly Know Ye!

Posted by John Bailo | October 12, 2008 4:56 PM
7

I like cheese

Posted by hal | October 12, 2008 4:58 PM
8

Bailo, Dear, I'm not sure any of us know the answers to the questions you ask if they're about McCain. Who is he? Where did he come from? Why is he acting so surprised he's gotten this far? Who is that silly lady from Alaska that keeps following him around? And why? As I've mentioned in the past I Know exactly who Barak Obama is, that's easy and a no brainer. But this McCain fellow, well golly gosh, he's something no one can figure out.

Posted by Sargon Bighorn | October 12, 2008 5:07 PM
9

From the way McCain's campaign strategy has been going, I'd say he's a "maverick"...if you define "maverick" as "batshit unpredictable" and "incapable of dealing with two things at once".

Posted by Tiktok | October 12, 2008 5:17 PM
10

Who is John Bailo?

Is John Bailo a pedophile? Google seems to agree.

Can anyone definitely prove John Bailo is a pedophile?

Posted by whatwhat | October 12, 2008 5:37 PM
11

@10 I don't know but if we're are talking about John A Bailo he had his ford repoed in 04 in King county Superior Court

Posted by wl | October 12, 2008 5:53 PM
12

@2,4: McCain, meet anvil! I certainly wouldn't mind a rout of the 1964 or 1984 variety, and pushing the endgame as far as it might go seems like a good strategy for a 50-state strategy to support Democrat nationwide...

Posted by demo kid | October 12, 2008 5:59 PM
13

John Bailo has also been canvassing the NY Times "the Caucus" blog posts with his anti-Obama dreck. Who is this Bailo joker anyway?

Posted by Adam | October 12, 2008 6:11 PM
14

@10: With County records, I can show a John A. Bailo once had a Federal Tax Lien... probably a different one, because we all know nobody votes Republican unless she or he earns at least $250,000/year or has a net worth of over $2million.

Posted by just wondering | October 12, 2008 6:11 PM
15

Obama is in, it's over, he's the figheter for the middle class, folks like Bailo are reduced to pathetic "questions"....they can't even defend McCain or explain what the hell he is running on now...
To answer your questions John Boy, we are electing him so he can convert all you Christians by force to Islam, and install a Leninist dictatorship.

Those G-7 meetings this weekend?

All part of the World Socialist Plot.

dont' you get it John Boy?

Posted by PC/SecterMuslimCommie#129,345,444bywayofultradeepcoverHRCdisguise | October 12, 2008 7:20 PM
16


For many, it wasn't his middle name, or secret talks with Arab leaders...but these shoes, found under the master bed at the Obama household, that first sparked fear in the American family about Barcks's loyalties:

http://www.dkimages.com/discover/previews/1547/11721093.JPG

Posted by John Bailo | October 12, 2008 7:22 PM
17

PC made the point that group think and the so yes yes yes --- neither dynamics opens the door to self reconstruct or better ideas.

I have enjoyed the comments from outsider PC.

AND MORE harm than good? That is just plain group think at its worst.

The best device in life to think well is someone who offers a robust challenge. To the point of friendly loud and personal.

PC makes this blog work better. Other, it is a stroke fest that wins no elections.

And after all is said and done, the sense is that it will be close AND not decided in Seattle - wish we could do that - but it will be decided in very hard fought battles in swing states - where attracting the middle and undecided is always the goal.

Go Obama. Remember the best reason to vote Obama - Mc Cain is a warmonger.

Posted by Adam | October 12, 2008 7:29 PM
18


Look at what the New York Times is saying about Barack Obama! Everyone is asking:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/obama-knocks-on-doors-in-ohio/#comment-627014

Who Is Barack Obama??

Posted by John Bailo | October 12, 2008 7:30 PM
19

@#18: Some people just don't *want* to get it, apparently. Like the man in the comment string you linked to says: If you don't know who Obama is by now, "you are either hopelessly partisan or willfully ignorant. It’s all out there". So come on and confess. Which is it? Are you hopelessly partisan, or are you being willfully ignorant? Your comments here on Slog certainly add nothing substantive to the discussions you join.

Posted by Calpete | October 12, 2008 7:46 PM
20

Um, Bailo? That's not "everyone". That's you, in two different places.

Posted by wench | October 12, 2008 8:01 PM
21

@18, @19, @20...

Can we get some comment moderation over here on this Slog?

Posted by elenchos | October 12, 2008 8:32 PM
22

Obama is a weasel who is in the back pocket of the Agribusiness Lobby. He's brought and paid for and they manipulate his strings.

Does this affect you, a city or exurbian dweller in the Puget Sound?

Yes it does...because land is the ultimate unequalizer. Obama and his buddies are driving the price of land in this country sky high. It's already way over priced because every spare acre is used for wasteful agricultural practices, the type that funds Obama. They are environmentally destructive. Far more destructive than what is called suburban "sprawl"...yet these practices are the bedrock of what keeps Obama afloat.

Obama and his Corn buddies make houses more expensive everywhere, they make food more expensive everywhere, they cause more health problems by filling our food supply with undigestable products -- more than any "health care plan" would ever restore.

Dig deep...and you'll find that the person making you sick, taking your money and making you poorer is Barack Obama and his backers.

My friends, if you think Barack Obama is anything more than a false facade for more taxes, and higher prices and less value...then you're sadly mistaken.

http://you-read-it-here-first.com/viewtopic.php?t=3215&sid=5ff3902752fd3bd58bfe6659a1375a5e

Posted by John Bailo | October 12, 2008 9:41 PM
23

i like john bailo linking to his own comment on nyt. "look what everyone's asking!"

troll.

Posted by skye | October 12, 2008 10:09 PM
24

Hal, you also swore up-and-down the AE-35 unit was going to go critical within 48 hours. Then, when we brought it in and tested it - and didn't find anything wrong with it - you claimed "human error" was to blame.

Then you FUCKING KILLED Hunter, Kimball, Kaminski, AND Poole!

So, now you expect us to forget all that and trust you again?

I think not.

Posted by Dave Bowman | October 12, 2008 10:33 PM
25

Bailo, I am NOT ONE OF YOUR FRIENDS.

Posted by Madashell | October 12, 2008 11:13 PM
26

Oh, coming back to the topic of skid marks: I love the smell of my own...

Posted by John Bailo | October 12, 2008 11:15 PM
27


He hadn't a chance. He wore glasses.

-- Bent (1997)

Posted by John Bailo | October 12, 2008 11:27 PM
28

I agree with elenchos. This is getting ridiculous - can't you just put the same system in place that you have on comments for your articles, so we can at least flag "off-topic, spam, false, or abusive" comments?

Posted by Julie in Chicago | October 13, 2008 8:27 AM

Comments Closed

Comments are closed on this post.