Slog - Comments on Re: Toast http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast More battleground state polls, further supporting the toast theory from earlier today: FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47 MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43 MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48 NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47 VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44... Copyright 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 13:55:11 -0800 Thu, 02 Oct 2008 00:59:56 -0800 http://www.movabletype.org/?v=3.34 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Comment by Old_Mama_Chips How did we (MN) go from being a firmly blue state to a battleground state? Too scary...

]]> Old_Mama_Chips http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1156811 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1156811 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 14:00:15 -0800 Comment by SippinALatte @1: Hockey, annoying accents, drinking lots of six packs.

]]> SippinALatte http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1156931 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1156931 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 14:18:59 -0800 Comment by DOUG. Of these states, only Minnesota is outside the margin of suppression (+/-10%).

]]> DOUG. http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1156993 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1156993 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 14:32:45 -0800 Comment by Andy Niable Margin of error, please?

A few points aren't exactly TOAST numbers, though clearly something starting to burn in the McCain/Palin appliance.

]]> Andy Niable http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157174 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157174 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:02:58 -0800 Comment by michael strangeways Now I understand Charles next post...lighten up people! This is fucking GREAT news! Do a little dance! Sing a little song! WE'RE AHEAD IN THE POLLS!!!

]]> michael strangeways http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157196 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157196 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:05:55 -0800 Comment by douglas how are these polls being conducted? i feel like this election is going to have radically different voter turnouts than maybe any other election in history with black, latino, and young voters playing a major, and positive, factor in obama's favor. my skepticism remains that these three groups are being accurately polled.

]]> douglas http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157275 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157275 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:21:38 -0800 Comment by Bellevue Ave 3.5 to 4%

]]> Bellevue Ave http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157336 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157336 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:31:29 -0800 Comment by Fnarf If McCain is toast, is Sarah Palin the butter?

]]> Fnarf http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157352 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157352 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:34:34 -0800 Comment by michael strangeways I agree with Douglas...polling is not keeping pace with modern technology or recent trends towards the young and minorities. I think some results on November 4th are going to surprise a lot of people.

]]> michael strangeways http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157417 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157417 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:46:29 -0800 Comment by threnody McCain buttered his own toast...Palin is like a gratuitous dollop of Nutella.

]]> threnody http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157426 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157426 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:47:56 -0800 Comment by Barak G If this keeps up (may or may not) we can at least be thinking about the possibility that a poll-driven sense of inevitability for a big national Obama victory might keep a lot of Rossi voters home (with similar effects on many races around the country).

]]> Barak G http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157467 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157467 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:56:59 -0800 Comment by michael strangeways new Rasmussen polls from TX and MS have Obama behind 9 and 8 points respectively...and the Senate races in both states are getting tight which is sad news for the Republican incumbents.

Kerry lost huge in those states, so for Obama to be pulling within margin of error distance with little or no campaigning in those states is amazing.

]]> michael strangeways http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157564 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157564 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:18:22 -0800 Comment by banjoboy I love playing with the map here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

If you give Obama the states where he currently has a 5% lead or more, plus MN and NH, he wins. Even if McCain takes FL, OH, VA, IN, MO, NC AND NV!

If Obama loses PA, he can still win if he takes OH or FL or VA + NC.

]]> banjoboy http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157639 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157639 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:35:36 -0800 Comment by Jeff Stevens Fnarf @8,

Close, but not as close as Russia. Palin is chipped moose meat, to be spread on top of McCain's toast, then served at high school cafeterias all across this great land of ours once President "America's Heartbeat" Palin revives Reaganomics for a new generation.

In other words, chipped moose meat on toast will soon be the new ketchup. People get ready!

]]> Jeff Stevens http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157903 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1157903 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:14:32 -0800 Comment by Eddy968 Didn't we discuss this earlier?


Bradley Effect

]]> Eddy968 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1158149 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1158149 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 20:33:07 -0800 Comment by Will in Seattle I liked the online CNN electoral map discussion today - got to watch it at Bulldog News during my coffee break.

But, yeah, why are we baby blue? We should be DARK DARK BLUE!

]]> Will in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1158299 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1158299 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 22:11:14 -0800 Comment by threnody @15
I see your Bradley Effect and I raise you a nobody-under-35-has-a-landline.

]]> threnody http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1158337 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1158337 2008 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 22:44:00 -0800 Comment by Mr. X I'd love to pop the champagne cork as much as anyone, but I'm crossing every cross-able body part (fingers, toes, eyes, etc) until the election is called for Obama on the front page of all of the 11/5 papers.

Then again, come to think of it, I may not really believe it until 1/20/09.

]]> Mr. X http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1158424 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/re_toast#c1158424 2008 Thu, 02 Oct 2008 00:59:56 -0800