How did we (MN) go from being a firmly blue state to a battleground state? Too scary...

@1: Hockey, annoying accents, drinking lots of six packs.

Of these states, only Minnesota is outside the margin of suppression (+/-10%).

Margin of error, please?

A few points aren't exactly TOAST numbers, though clearly something starting to burn in the McCain/Palin appliance.

Now I understand Charles next post...lighten up people! This is fucking GREAT news! Do a little dance! Sing a little song! WE'RE AHEAD IN THE POLLS!!!

how are these polls being conducted? i feel like this election is going to have radically different voter turnouts than maybe any other election in history with black, latino, and young voters playing a major, and positive, factor in obama's favor. my skepticism remains that these three groups are being accurately polled.

3.5 to 4%

If McCain is toast, is Sarah Palin the butter?

I agree with Douglas...polling is not keeping pace with modern technology or recent trends towards the young and minorities. I think some results on November 4th are going to surprise a lot of people.

McCain buttered his own toast...Palin is like a gratuitous dollop of Nutella.

If this keeps up (may or may not) we can at least be thinking about the possibility that a poll-driven sense of inevitability for a big national Obama victory might keep a lot of Rossi voters home (with similar effects on many races around the country).

new Rasmussen polls from TX and MS have Obama behind 9 and 8 points respectively...and the Senate races in both states are getting tight which is sad news for the Republican incumbents.

Kerry lost huge in those states, so for Obama to be pulling within margin of error distance with little or no campaigning in those states is amazing.

I love playing with the map here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

If you give Obama the states where he currently has a 5% lead or more, plus MN and NH, he wins. Even if McCain takes FL, OH, VA, IN, MO, NC AND NV!

If Obama loses PA, he can still win if he takes OH or FL or VA + NC.

Fnarf @8,

Close, but not as close as Russia. Palin is chipped moose meat, to be spread on top of McCain's toast, then served at high school cafeterias all across this great land of ours once President "America's Heartbeat" Palin revives Reaganomics for a new generation.

In other words, chipped moose meat on toast will soon be the new ketchup. People get ready!

Didn't we discuss this earlier?


Bradley Effect

I liked the online CNN electoral map discussion today - got to watch it at Bulldog News during my coffee break.

But, yeah, why are we baby blue? We should be DARK DARK BLUE!

@15
I see your Bradley Effect and I raise you a nobody-under-35-has-a-landline.

I'd love to pop the champagne cork as much as anyone, but I'm crossing every cross-able body part (fingers, toes, eyes, etc) until the election is called for Obama on the front page of all of the 11/5 papers.

Then again, come to think of it, I may not really believe it until 1/20/09.