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Tuesday, October 21, 2008


posted by on October 21 at 9:30 AM

McCain is reportedly giving up on Colorado and New Mexico.

Which leaves him with what options to get to 270 electoral college votes?

Not many, and all of them seem to count on Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania? Where McCain is down by at least 10 points? And which hasn’t gone to a Republican in like 20 years. Really?

I mean, there’s still two weeks until the election, anything can happen, two weeks is a lifetime in politics, yadda yadda yadda, but (and with apologies to those who fear jinxes and such) if some special McCain-saving thing doesn’t happen, and if the “lifetime” of this next two weeks doesn’t turn out to be long enough, then simple math tells you where this is all most likely going.

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McSame is toast, hot, buttery, fresh-from-the-toaster, toast.

Not that I wouldn't put any Election Day shenanigans past the GOP, but they're going to have to disenfranchise one Hell of a lot of voters, or program a whole bunch of Diebold voting machines to "malfunction" to even have a chance of pulling this off now.

Buh-bye Sarah. It was nice having you around for a few laughs, but it's time to go back to Juneau.

Posted by COMTE | October 21, 2008 9:35 AM

It means they know exactly what state they are rigging. Perhaps not Pen., but the private assuredness of a plan seems to be there within the campaign amazingly enough.

Posted by Non | October 21, 2008 9:35 AM

What about the purging of voters from the rolls in Colorado? Is it possible that the McCain camp feels secure enough about all the Dem voters who won't be able to vote that they don't need to campaign in Colorado any more?

If not that, it's just going to be fucking Ohio and Florida again. There's no way they can steal enough votes in Pennsylvania.

Posted by Perfectly Disgraceful | October 21, 2008 9:40 AM

In PA, everything depends on turnout in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. If they turn out in big numbers, McCain doesn't have a chance (both cities are about 80% Democratic, and they almost always vote that way). If, however, turnout is light in the cities, the middle of the state is majority Republican, and it could be enough to swing the vote toward McCain.

Posted by Sheryl | October 21, 2008 9:43 AM

@2 - I'd tend to agree. 2000 especially showed how unscrupulous the GOP is about pulling out all the stops of disenfranchisement; I'm sure they've got something up their sleeves. Fortunately, I'm also hearing reports that Obama has an army of lawyers at the ready.

Once this is all over and the Dems are in control, can we PLEASE work on some basic election reform? Like a national registration system, same-day registration and/or early voting, and national ballot design standards? It's just a mess and costs all of us millions of dollars of legal fees and stress.

Posted by David | October 21, 2008 9:43 AM

My dad is working his ass off in the Lehigh Valley (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton). My old high school friends, who I used to tussle with over the first Gulf War and the Clinton / Bush race, are for the most part solidly in Obama's corner. Despite the ugly video from the Palin hate rally at Lehigh's Stabler Arena, I think you're going to see more of PA go for Obama than just the urban areas.

I'm still not feeling like this is a lock, but if the Rs pull this out, it will only be thanks to some serious election shenanigans, at which point... I don't know what I would do. I really don't.

Posted by Suze | October 21, 2008 9:54 AM

Not only Pennsylvania, but Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and I think Missouri.

Posted by w7ngman | October 21, 2008 9:55 AM

david@5. couldn't agree more. what basic claim can we have of living in a democratic society when this kind of shit is allowed to go on? seriously, we had eight years to address the problem and very little effort was made by the dems to fix it. i'd like to see obama outlaw those diebold machines as his first act in office, then move on to all the other reforms immediately thereafter.

Posted by ellarosa | October 21, 2008 10:01 AM

Ayup Obama's got it, as been sayin'.

But also:

the election is just the start of the next phase of getting everything passed. We don't "win" in a real sense till Congress passees the changes pres. Obama wants.

@5 I think the voting systems/definition of who is a qualified voter etc. is state by state as per US constitution -- not sure if we can have a federal law as you suggest -- yet another dumb 18th cent. relic blocking progress (this whole concept of "states" which means states can do weird shit to disenfranchise folks) -- did you know there is not even a right to vote for US citizens in the USA constitution? Because it's perfectly legal for about 600,000 of them in DC to have no real rep. in Congress?

Did you also know that liberals all over the USA like here don't give a shit?

Like right here on Sloig folks are worried about GOP shenanigans harming the franchise yet you hardly here one peep about DC residents not being able to vote.

Werid, huh? How'd you like it if you couldn't vote for Senator? Why are we like the only nation in the world with this weird it's-okay-to-disenfranchise-the-capitol concept, I do believe folks in Paris, Moscow and London are allowed to vote for those parliaments. Well then of course those cities are not majority African American, maybe that's got something to do with it here. OR just hte jealousy of folks in other states, who gives a shit if someone else has not vote for Senator at all, we go bananas over
the subtle disenfranchisement shenanigans yet if the disenfanchisement is right there in the US constituition some how it's a-okay. Fuck those folks in DC, seems to be the overall attitude. Guess they're not real Americans, even to liberals everywhere, cuz I never hear all us liberals everywhere else even talking about that disenfranchisement.

Very weird, huh?

Meanwhile Obama doing great w his army of lawyers stopping the Ohio mess in the making....did you know he already had a pre transition "planning" meeting with 120 staffers divided into about 20 issue groups? I.e., he's already starting up the machienry of the "transition" a/k/a governing.

Very smart. Thank you Obama.


Posted by PC | October 21, 2008 10:03 AM

Martyred glory Republicans. TPM blog: Watching the hecklers in North Carolina on Sunday. Once again, they don't need a reason to heckle, they're just fucking cry baby victims.

Posted by 4f...sake | October 21, 2008 10:04 AM

I've been volunteering for Obama in rural Western Pennsylvania.

Obama taking PA does depend on large voter turn-out in the Philly and Pittsburgh areas. When people say "Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east and Alabama in the middle," the aren't kidding.

Still, there are more young people and more black people working for Obama (even in the sticks) than I've seen working for recent Democratic presidential candidates. I just hope people in the cities don't take anything for granted to show up to vote.

Posted by Laurie Mann | October 21, 2008 10:09 AM

Something tells me that Obama's visit to his grandmother is going to be an accidental blessing in terms of helping to break through prejudice. We all know what it's like to have a family member be ill, and many know what it's like to feel it necessary to drop everything to be close to them. If McCain continues to throw mud during this delicate time, it will NOT be good for him. Particularly if they attempt to bring up stuff like Reverand Wright again.

Posted by Zelbinian | October 21, 2008 10:10 AM

I'm more worried about the 51st state formerly known as Diebold (now ironically rechristened "Premier Election Solutions")

Posted by Andy Niable | October 21, 2008 10:37 AM

Uh, PC, count me as a liberal who wants to see election reform.

I think election reform is one that the whole electorate - liberal and conservative - could get behind. The problem is getting elected officials of either party to do anything about it. Why would they want to change the system that got them into power?

Posted by David | October 21, 2008 10:45 AM

It's really grim for McCain, folks. He can win with Pennsylvania only if he also takes Ohio and Florida. He can only give up one of VA and NC, but only if he takes NV, MO, and IN.

Posted by w7ngman | October 21, 2008 10:46 AM

Look for a huge effort in PA, and then if polls tighten from 9% to 4 or 5%, McCain to ply it up in hopes that NV, OH, and VA shake loose. A Hail Mary worthy of Terry Bradshaw, but that's what McCain does, right?

Posted by Big Sven | October 21, 2008 10:47 AM

I agree that this means nothing for Obama unless he gets Congress to rally around him after January.

History lesson: after FDR won in 1932 he refused to work with Hoover and Congress during the transition (at that point was 4 months long) as the banking crisis exploded. The political reason were two fold, first Hoover wanted to push legislation that would kill any New Deal programs FDR wanted AND more importantly FDR wanted to start his administration with huge legistlative wins right from the start without having to give ANY credit to the GOP.

Obama is being handed an oddly similar hand starting in November and if he does play this hand like Roosevelt let's not bitch about it. Obama will have political capital after November but let's pray he knows how to play it politically to his advantage.

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger | October 21, 2008 10:48 AM


I'm not too worried about Obama knowing how to play politics.

I'm also not too worried about turnout. Not that every Obama supporter is like me, but I was thrilled to vote for him, so much so that I mailed my ballot two days after I received it. Enough people are excited about him that I don't predict low turnout in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Posted by keshmeshi | October 21, 2008 10:52 AM

It is all in the Phillies' hands, the Phillies winning the world series will make Philadelphia the happiest place on earth and people will turn out in huge numbers to vote, if the Phillies lose, than people will be gloomy and depressed like we were in 93 when that bastard joe carter hit one in the skydome off of wild thing that still has not landed.

So everyone should be joining me in yelling GO PHILLIES!! Tampa is a republican strong hold so yall better not be cheering for them. ;)

Posted by SeMe | October 21, 2008 11:18 AM

McCain's only hope at this point is for Bush to throw his support to Obama.

Posted by Jim Demetre | October 21, 2008 11:53 AM

Remember. Vote early. Vote often.

And don't get cocky.

Posted by Will in Seattle | October 21, 2008 12:56 PM

The hair plug possum was right over the weekend. Achmadinejad in Iran, Putin in Russia, al qaeda, or whomever else wants to see this country disappear from the map will test Barack Hussein Osama's mettle by launching a pre-emptive attack against us. Those backward people would never dare a brave patriot like John McCain or Sarah Palin.

If there is another 9/11 if Barack Hussein Osama is "elected," then you Marxist sympathizers will be proven traitors - no better than Hanoi Jane Fonda - and you will have blood on your hands.

You will be collaborating with the enemy.

And you know what happened to people who collaborated with the Nazis...

Posted by Lord Basil | October 21, 2008 1:15 PM

Tampa is blue just like 99% of other cities.

It's just devoid of any culture or redeeming aspects, so it's not very blue.

Posted by Chris in Tampa | October 21, 2008 1:32 PM

Obama doesn't need FL, NC, OH, or MO. With VA and PA seemingly in the bag for Obama, McCain can take every other battleground, including CO and NV, and he'll still lose. And the latest polls show Obama +10, +6 in VA, +12, +8 in PA.

Posted by Fnarf | October 21, 2008 1:51 PM

something I've been wondering for a while. Is it "the sticks"? Or "the styx"?

Posted by Mike in MO | October 21, 2008 3:33 PM

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