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Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Obama’s Biggest Lead Yet

posted by on October 8 at 10:12 AM

Up by 11 points, according to today’s Gallup daily tracking poll:


Says Gallup: “These results, based on Oct. 5-7 polling, are the best for Obama during the campaign, both in terms of his share of the vote and the size of his lead over McCain.”

These results don’t take into account last night’s debate, which CNN says Obama won by a 24-point margin. But these results do suggest that Palin’s Ayers smear campaign over the weekend has not only failed to stick, it’s slipped like Jello nailed to a wall—and they’re actually helping Obama. Thus, I would like to offer a very cautious, “Fuck yeah!”

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The link for the "24-point margin" is not working.

Posted by Alice | October 8, 2008 10:28 AM

Where was Kerry and Gore at this point in their run's? (I have not been able to find that).

But seriously, I am ALMOST willing to say, we got the White House now let's pick up some more Senate seats and get over 60...almost I said.

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger | October 8, 2008 10:28 AM

Now, all we need is for people who said they'd vote to actually show up. Seriously.

I don't think the Republicans are out of fresh election-stealing ideas yet.

Posted by bearseatbeats | October 8, 2008 10:32 AM

Alice @ 1) Fixed, my dear!

Posted by Dominic Holden | October 8, 2008 10:32 AM

Missed opportunity for "Obama goes up to 11" joke.

Posted by Dr. Savage Mudede | October 8, 2008 10:35 AM

Two words, people: Bradley Effect.

This thing is not won yet.
I echo @3's fearful skepticism.

Posted by Lenny | October 8, 2008 10:38 AM

Meanwhile, a lot of other polls narrowed recently. None of the important ones, of course, but it is a little odd.

Posted by Chris in Tampa | October 8, 2008 10:38 AM

Complain about election stealing all you want people, but stop fucking harping on the Bradley Effect. It's gone, it's irrelevant, it's dead. Pay attention.

Posted by Chris in Tampa | October 8, 2008 10:41 AM

A childhood friend of mine in Pennsylvania, who has voted Republican his entire life and who has been undecided until now, just posted today on Facebook that he's voting for Obama. Hope, faith, and work like hell to make sure this happens. Kinda hate the Electoral College right now. Doing what I can in Seattle feels lame.

Posted by Suze | October 8, 2008 10:44 AM

The definition of a "likely voter" excludes the cell-phone-only childless twentysomethings who always threaten to participate in every election but never do. Gallup and the others would look like rubes if they fell for the old "young people are going to vote this time" trick.

In other words, Obama is winning without our fickle narcissistic youth. If they do show up (spoiler: they won't) then he will win by more, that's all.

Posted by elenchos | October 8, 2008 10:44 AM

@9: yeah, seriously. I wish I could still vote in Colorado- I voted absentee in Colorado in the last election, for all the good it did. My little sister is volunteering for the campaign in Denver, although she can't vote yet, and she's dragged my mom (who never does that kind of thing) into it as well. I wish I could donate my vote to her.

Posted by Abby | October 8, 2008 10:51 AM
12 has a cool link for "this day in 2004"

For example, you can look at October 8th 2004 including their analysis and an electoral map. It's not exactly what you were looking for but it provides a nice (and inspiring) contrast.

Posted by Sir Learnsalot | October 8, 2008 10:52 AM

e, I actually have some hope that they kids will in fact show up this year. They sure the fuck showed up at my caucus, swamping the old farts & I who were caucusing for Hils.

But there are 27 news cycles between now and the election. I still think the R's will trot out some white girlfriend of Obama's from his youth, just to try to shake free NC, OH, PA, and MI...

Posted by Big Sven | October 8, 2008 10:52 AM

Has anyone out there ever actually nailed jello to the wall? If not, I would like to suggest it as a task for the Stranger intern.

Posted by Gurldoggie | October 8, 2008 11:00 AM

@14: I think it could be done, if you added Knox gelatin. You know, the old Knox Blocks. Get on it, Stranger.

Maybe you could spell out FUCK, YES! We still have weeks to get through, but I am feeling real optimistic.

Posted by kerri harrop | October 8, 2008 11:08 AM

i would imagine anyone who is college age right now and about to enter an ever-shrinking work force are probably much more concerned about the economy and the future of our country than most people think. they may not all make it to the polls, but many of them will.

one other thing to bear in mind, the statistical models used by pollsters rely on past election turnouts to make their projections. if young voters turn out at a slightly higher percentage than past elections, you're looking at a landslide.

Posted by brandon | October 8, 2008 11:09 AM

We didn't have jell-o or hammers in the Hanoi Hilton!

Posted by John McCain | October 8, 2008 11:15 AM

@14, this guy says no:

This guy says sort of:

(all found at Metafilter)

Posted by Fnarf | October 8, 2008 11:18 AM

I'm cautiously optimistic, but won't really breathe freely until McCain concedes.

Posted by itsmarkmitchell | October 8, 2008 11:20 AM

@ 8, re: Bradley Effect

Uh, no, actually. It's not dead. It's not irrelevant.

AFTER the election, when That One is innaugurated... only then will it be irrelevant.

And even then, it won't be dead.

Posted by natopotato | October 8, 2008 11:21 AM

Someone with the access to data should look at whether there's been any election where someone with a 52-41 lead at this late a date in the election has not won.

Posted by Deric in LA | October 8, 2008 11:24 AM

When it comes to nailing Jell-O to the wall, does McCain speak from experience? If so, someone needs to evaluate him for delirium. Maybe he's throwing his lunch tray at the wall as well.

Posted by Madashell | October 8, 2008 11:31 AM

This is really great news, but I feel like we can't get relaxed. We need to pound this home, no matter how large the lead, until defeat is official.

Posted by Jen | October 8, 2008 11:33 AM

Count me with the skeptics. Not that news like this isn't exciting, but I just can't shake that nagging feeling. Something is going to happen. Or nothing happens and Obama loses anyway.

I'm certain this is all neurosis from elections past.

Bottom line: I hope 10 is right. I hope.

Posted by Mike in MO | October 8, 2008 3:23 PM

the map at has the blue states for Obama at EXACTLY the same as Gore's final result in 2000, i.e., if McCain takes all the current 'swing' states (within 5% in polls) then the final result will be identical on a state by state basis (2 better for McCain in the electoral count)!

that would be beyond heartbreaking and, unfortunately looks ominously possible.

I dearly hope the current pitch to buy out peoples mortgages and refi them at current house values doesn't catch on, I thought it was the one 'big seller' McCain had at the debate... essentially a HUGE bribe to everyone who paid too much for a house!

Posted by interesting | October 8, 2008 5:25 PM

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