Slog - Comments on Nail Biting, Fretting, Etc. http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc At this point in the election season, I know that the only thing that matters is the electoral map. And the map says Obama is leading by a wide margin--nay, a gaping chasm. But I'll be damned if this morning's poll of likely voters from Gallup--the same firm that showed Obama ahead by 10 points only two days ago--doesn't cause me to involuntarily Kegel.... Copyright 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:44:15 -0800 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 17:24:42 -0800 http://www.movabletype.org/?v=3.34 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Comment by Nay Yes! "involuntarily Kegel" is my new favorite buzz phrase!

]]> Nay http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181561 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181561 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:46:17 -0800 Comment by John Bailo
No need to vote, Democrats.

It's all locked up.

Heh.

]]> John Bailo http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181563 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181563 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:47:13 -0800 Comment by LDP in Cincinnati I think I need to admit to myself that I'm going to suffer some wild mood swings between now and Nov. 4. This Gallup poll has my stomach churning, when just moments ago, I was giddy about Quinnipiac's having Obama up by 14 points in Ohio. I'm a nervous wreck.

]]> LDP in Cincinnati http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181567 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181567 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:49:52 -0800 Comment by John Bailo #3

Don't let politics get you down.

Go the McCain way.

Country First!

]]> John Bailo http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181569 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181569 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:51:40 -0800 Comment by Will in Seattle @2 ... very sadly ... for the win.

Vote early.

Vote often.

]]> Will in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181575 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181575 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:54:49 -0800 Comment by Jay Andrew Allen Um, Dominic? That's called statistical noise. Polls meander randomly from day to day. Look at the trends and the averages over time.

FiveThirtyEight.com is a great antidote to poll anxiety.

]]> Jay Andrew Allen http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181581 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181581 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:57:28 -0800 Comment by Bellevue Ave We need monthly moving averages for the pussies at the stranger who can't handle a little volatility.

]]> Bellevue Ave http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181588 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181588 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:59:25 -0800 Comment by Fnarf A little poll anxiety isn't necessarily a bad thing if it drives turnout. I'm just a little worried that the Republican strategy at this point is to act like they're conceding, because they know that low turnout is the only thing they have left to hope for.

]]> Fnarf http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181590 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181590 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:01:16 -0800 Comment by brandon elections always tighten towards the end of the race. if a 6-point race is troubling you, you'll be kegeling the shit out of yourself over the next couple weeks [not necessarly a bad thing, for reasons i won't get into here].

]]> brandon http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181603 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181603 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:12:55 -0800 Comment by palin sucks The negative shit works. It just does. Don't believe anyone who tells you otherwise. Seen it over and over and over again.

Willie Horton. Sex predators. Terrorists. Gay marriage. Fear is the biggest motivator, and the Republicans know how to use it. It's all they have.

]]> palin sucks http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181609 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181609 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:16:02 -0800 Comment by Mike in Renton I'll add to what @6 said and add that you should read this specifically regarding "likely voters".

I'll just add that kegels are good for you regardless of whether or not they are voluntary.

]]> Mike in Renton http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181627 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181627 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:30:36 -0800 Comment by Matthew The "socialist" crap is gaining traction...make no mistake. Some people are just too stupid and gullible to live.

]]> Matthew http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181629 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181629 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:31:34 -0800 Comment by Chris in Tampa Elections do not always tighten towards the end of the race, and this election is not necessarily tightening because a three day trend shows the numbers getting slightly closer. Will everyone please stop making up election analysis based upon observations from the last two cycles, and what sounds like it might be true.

And read fivethirtyeight.com exclusively. Only go to RealClearPolitics or Electoral-vote to control your giddiness when it gets out of hand.

]]> Chris in Tampa http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181630 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181630 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:33:20 -0800 Comment by Chris in Tampa Actually, RealClearPolitics has one slightly useful function in this case: Proving that the race has not tightened at all this month. Go to the National Averages page, and look at the squiggly line graph that shows the range between the two candidates polling averages. You can see that between 10.10 and 10.17 was just statistical noise, and that Obama has been sitting at about 6.5 this whole month. If it weren't for that Pew Poll, he'd be there now.

]]> Chris in Tampa http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181641 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181641 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:40:03 -0800 Comment by PC Don't get worried, (A) go get on a plane to NV or OH and volunteer your ass, or (B) start planning what you are going to do to stay involved after the elction and ensure we totally get everything passed.

Good story in NYT today about Wooster Ohio, GOP office somnolent, Obama/Dems has 100 people (Woosert Ohio!!!) including several folks from other states.

Action is the only way to take charge of history and be the change you want.

Unity

]]> PC http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181673 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181673 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:57:11 -0800 Comment by Vince If the unthinkable happens, I say boycott all shopping for the holidays.

]]> Vince http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181675 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181675 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:58:27 -0800 Comment by Fnarf @13, RCP at this point is if anything more clear than 538 that Obama's lead is unsurmountable.

]]> Fnarf http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181680 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181680 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 12:00:19 -0800 Comment by kebabs Kicked in another $50 to Obama/Biden today.

]]> kebabs http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181684 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181684 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 12:01:44 -0800 Comment by Andy Niable Polls don't elect, votes do.

So hope that:

1) the electronic voting machine registers correctly (see Virginia this month)
2) the ballot makes it to the post office (see Seattle this week)
3) the polling station lines aren't insanely long due to manipulation of available voting machines
4) the polling station has a correct list of names that haven't illegally purged people (see Florida 2000, and current lawsuits around the US) and has enough ballots for an expected record turnout
5) the racist hecklers don't deter people from voting (see North Carolina this month)

and whatever things we can't anticipate (who expected police roadblocks in Florida in 2000?)

This one comes down to turnout and successful resistance to voter suppression. It's not the polls, stupid. It's the votes.

]]> Andy Niable http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181690 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181690 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 12:03:41 -0800 Comment by Geni Don't fret, get your ballot into one of the ballot collection boxes today. And bug your friends and neighbors to get theirs in too. The pukes can only steal it if it's close.

]]> Geni http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181775 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181775 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 12:50:27 -0800 Comment by blank12357 I have a sphincter loosening exercise for you. Go to one of those online maps that allow you to tally the Electoral College vote by selecting which way states are going to go. There's one at CNN, here:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Take for granted that Obama will win WA and make it blue. Figure that McCain will win AZ and make it red. McCain pulled out of NM and CO? Ok, they're blue. Use a variety of polling maps, like those at fivethirtyeight, to help you pick. You'll find it very difficult to come up with plausible scenario that has McCain winning, plus its good prep for election night in getting familiar with the decisive states.

]]> blank12357 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181790 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181790 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 12:59:17 -0800 Comment by Chris Just dropped off my ballot - didn't need some rogue mail carrier disenfranchising my ass.

]]> Chris http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181804 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181804 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 13:09:14 -0800 Comment by Cascadian The overall poll averages have had this race at 6-8 points for weeks. The ones that show it at 10-14 points are assuming optimistic turnout for Obama. Those that have it at 5 or less (though none give McCain a lead) are assuming turnout at 2004 levels. Bottom line: unless something big happens, and if the election were held today, Obama wins. Easily.

If you want to worry about the election, worry about Gregoire, Burner, Prop 8 in California, and Prop 1/Mass Transit Now here. The most recent polls are looking up for all of these, but the averages for at least Gregoire, Burner, and Prop. 8 are very worrisome.

]]> Cascadian http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181816 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181816 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 13:18:13 -0800 Comment by Fnarf @21, the clickable map at 270towin.com is much better than CNN's. But you're right; even if McCain sweeps the toss-up states, he still loses. He needs to pick off a blue state or two, which ain't gonna happen. FL? Doesn't matter. OH? Doesn't matter. CO? Doesn't matter.

What does matter is humiliating John McCain so badly that the Repubs become even more deranged than they are now, and the party breaks apart. Ideally, we want them to run Sarah Palin in 2012, which would be an opportunity for a never-happened-before 538-0 sweep for Obama's second term, and 70 seats in the senate. Only then will the Republicans be forced to reform themselves and act like human beings.

]]> Fnarf http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181901 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181901 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:03:59 -0800 Comment by Will in Seattle The second you get the nerve up - VOTE.

Either early or by absentee ballot.

BUT DO IT.

You'll be glad you did - for one thing, those annoying robocalls tend to end when you do that, cause they know you've voted already.

]]> Will in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181920 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181920 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:11:52 -0800 Comment by Will in Seattle and, like Chris @22, I dropped off my ballot in person at one of the dropoff places for absentee ballots - this one was in the U Dist, think it's 4536 University Ave or something like that.

]]> Will in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181923 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1181923 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:14:17 -0800 Comment by lostboy Fnarf @24, McCain needs more than a blue state or two.  To come up with a McCain win on RCP's map, I had to give him not only all of the toss up states, but also every one of the "leaning Obama" states except for NM.

]]> lostboy http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1182167 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/nail_biting_fretting_etc#c1182167 2008 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 17:24:42 -0800