Yes! "involuntarily Kegel" is my new favorite buzz phrase!

No need to vote, Democrats.

It's all locked up.

Heh.

I think I need to admit to myself that I'm going to suffer some wild mood swings between now and Nov. 4. This Gallup poll has my stomach churning, when just moments ago, I was giddy about Quinnipiac's having Obama up by 14 points in Ohio. I'm a nervous wreck.

#3

Don't let politics get you down.

Go the McCain way.

Country First!

@2 ... very sadly ... for the win.

Vote early.

Vote often.

Um, Dominic? That's called statistical noise. Polls meander randomly from day to day. Look at the trends and the averages over time.

FiveThirtyEight.com is a great antidote to poll anxiety.

We need monthly moving averages for the pussies at the stranger who can't handle a little volatility.

A little poll anxiety isn't necessarily a bad thing if it drives turnout. I'm just a little worried that the Republican strategy at this point is to act like they're conceding, because they know that low turnout is the only thing they have left to hope for.

elections always tighten towards the end of the race. if a 6-point race is troubling you, you'll be kegeling the shit out of yourself over the next couple weeks [not necessarly a bad thing, for reasons i won't get into here].

The negative shit works. It just does. Don't believe anyone who tells you otherwise. Seen it over and over and over again.

Willie Horton. Sex predators. Terrorists. Gay marriage. Fear is the biggest motivator, and the Republicans know how to use it. It's all they have.

I'll add to what @6 said and add that you should read this specifically regarding "likely voters".

I'll just add that kegels are good for you regardless of whether or not they are voluntary.

The "socialist" crap is gaining traction...make no mistake. Some people are just too stupid and gullible to live.

Elections do not always tighten towards the end of the race, and this election is not necessarily tightening because a three day trend shows the numbers getting slightly closer. Will everyone please stop making up election analysis based upon observations from the last two cycles, and what sounds like it might be true.

And read fivethirtyeight.com exclusively. Only go to RealClearPolitics or Electoral-vote to control your giddiness when it gets out of hand.

Actually, RealClearPolitics has one slightly useful function in this case: Proving that the race has not tightened at all this month. Go to the National Averages page, and look at the squiggly line graph that shows the range between the two candidates polling averages. You can see that between 10.10 and 10.17 was just statistical noise, and that Obama has been sitting at about 6.5 this whole month. If it weren't for that Pew Poll, he'd be there now.

Don't get worried, (A) go get on a plane to NV or OH and volunteer your ass, or (B) start planning what you are going to do to stay involved after the elction and ensure we totally get everything passed.

Good story in NYT today about Wooster Ohio, GOP office somnolent, Obama/Dems has 100 people (Woosert Ohio!!!) including several folks from other states.

Action is the only way to take charge of history and be the change you want.

Unity

If the unthinkable happens, I say boycott all shopping for the holidays.

@13, RCP at this point is if anything more clear than 538 that Obama's lead is unsurmountable.

Kicked in another $50 to Obama/Biden today.

Polls don't elect, votes do.

So hope that:

1) the electronic voting machine registers correctly (see Virginia this month)
2) the ballot makes it to the post office (see Seattle this week)
3) the polling station lines aren't insanely long due to manipulation of available voting machines
4) the polling station has a correct list of names that haven't illegally purged people (see Florida 2000, and current lawsuits around the US) and has enough ballots for an expected record turnout
5) the racist hecklers don't deter people from voting (see North Carolina this month)

and whatever things we can't anticipate (who expected police roadblocks in Florida in 2000?)

This one comes down to turnout and successful resistance to voter suppression. It's not the polls, stupid. It's the votes.

Don't fret, get your ballot into one of the ballot collection boxes today. And bug your friends and neighbors to get theirs in too. The pukes can only steal it if it's close.

I have a sphincter loosening exercise for you. Go to one of those online maps that allow you to tally the Electoral College vote by selecting which way states are going to go. There's one at CNN, here:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Take for granted that Obama will win WA and make it blue. Figure that McCain will win AZ and make it red. McCain pulled out of NM and CO? Ok, they're blue. Use a variety of polling maps, like those at fivethirtyeight, to help you pick. You'll find it very difficult to come up with plausible scenario that has McCain winning, plus its good prep for election night in getting familiar with the decisive states.

Just dropped off my ballot - didn't need some rogue mail carrier disenfranchising my ass.

The overall poll averages have had this race at 6-8 points for weeks. The ones that show it at 10-14 points are assuming optimistic turnout for Obama. Those that have it at 5 or less (though none give McCain a lead) are assuming turnout at 2004 levels. Bottom line: unless something big happens, and if the election were held today, Obama wins. Easily.

If you want to worry about the election, worry about Gregoire, Burner, Prop 8 in California, and Prop 1/Mass Transit Now here. The most recent polls are looking up for all of these, but the averages for at least Gregoire, Burner, and Prop. 8 are very worrisome.

@21, the clickable map at 270towin.com is much better than CNN's. But you're right; even if McCain sweeps the toss-up states, he still loses. He needs to pick off a blue state or two, which ain't gonna happen. FL? Doesn't matter. OH? Doesn't matter. CO? Doesn't matter.

What does matter is humiliating John McCain so badly that the Repubs become even more deranged than they are now, and the party breaks apart. Ideally, we want them to run Sarah Palin in 2012, which would be an opportunity for a never-happened-before 538-0 sweep for Obama's second term, and 70 seats in the senate. Only then will the Republicans be forced to reform themselves and act like human beings.

The second you get the nerve up - VOTE.

Either early or by absentee ballot.

BUT DO IT.

You'll be glad you did - for one thing, those annoying robocalls tend to end when you do that, cause they know you've voted already.

and, like Chris @22, I dropped off my ballot in person at one of the dropoff places for absentee ballots - this one was in the U Dist, think it's 4536 University Ave or something like that.

Fnarf @24, McCain needs more than a blue state or two.  To come up with a McCain win on RCP's map, I had to give him not only all of the toss up states, but also every one of the "leaning Obama" states except for NM.