Slog - Comments on Life Support

Comment by StC

StC — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 18:31:01 -0800

This is great, but it is because of shenanigans that the only number to watch on 548 is the LANDSLIDE statistic in the column on the right.

That is the percentage chance of a Democrat actually winning.

Comment by kinaidos

kinaidos — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 18:32:02 -0800

And for those still worried about the GWU and AP outlying poles, just research around a bit and you'll see plenty of accounts of how their age weighting is messed up and their sampling is inadequate (because it's turning out samples of those under 35 too small to be used).
Now the question is if there will be a bandwagon effect. The undecided number is still significant. Either we end up with some folks bolting to Nader and company, figuring that the outcome is already a given, or we likely end up with a lot of people who kind of want to vote for Obama, but don't want to do it unless he's likely to win.

Comment by Fnarf

Fnarf — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 19:12:57 -0800

Remember that the histogram is quantum, not continuous. Some electoral vote totals are more likely than others just because of how the states shake out, while other numbers are virtually impossible to achieve even if higher ones are more likely. The blip at 280 just means that the probabilities for that particular state combination has taken a jump upwards.

Comment by Julie in Chicago

Julie in Chicago — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 19:14:31 -0800

96.3%!! That's the highest it's been, I do believe.

Comment by Bellevue Ave

Bellevue Ave — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 19:23:20 -0800

What a bunch of concern trolls at the stranger. Have any of them ever faced adversity and triumphed?

Comment by Fnarf

Fnarf — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 19:25:45 -0800

No, Bellevue, I have only faced adversity and fallen down and died, over and over and over again. But thanks for asking.

Comment by Bellevue Ave

Bellevue Ave — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 19:32:30 -0800

Fnarf, you aren't worried about what histrograms show because you know what it actually means. And you don't work for the stranger...yet.

Comment by 4f...sake

4f...sake — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 19:45:12 -0800

I will slog as soon as I can see my screen. OMG Barack Obama's voice, OMG!

Comment by hal

hal — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 19:53:10 -0800

96.3% and you are worried? Boy, your glass is always half empty, huh...

And @8, get used to it. Like when the losing team finally wins. All I know is if the roles were reversed, Republicans would be sipping champagne, not figuring out exactly how the election will be stolen, andtheresnothingwecandoaboutsoImmovingtocananda!!!!

Comment by elenchos

elenchos — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 20:15:19 -0800

Didn't Brendan Kiley kick a gas huffing habit? And I think he broke his foot that one time. Oh, and what about DJ Fucking In The Streets. Remember when they wouldn't print his name on a flyer? I could go on.

Tons of adversity, overcoming of. Tons.

Mostly though, this is about the heartbreak of Gore and Kerry losing to monkeyface.

Comment by Catalina Vel-DuRay

Catalina Vel-DuRay — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 20:29:54 -0800

I have triumphed over wanting both wall ovens AND exposed beams in my home, but only getting wall ovens.

Comment by Gordon

Gordon — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 21:57:10 -0800

the audio from the slide show of the Richmond campaign stop ... it deafening.

It is amazing the difference in attitudes and sound between Obama rallies and McCain rallies ... the former inspiring hope, the latter hate and fear.

Comment by Gordon

Gordon — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 21:59:56 -0800

listen to the crowd as Obama comes on stage

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGX2lqvQlnc

Comment by clintonsarmy

clintonsarmy — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 23:18:25 -0800

We won't support spine-less NO-Bama and will re-defeat him in November !! Go Hillary 2012 !!!

Comment by disintegrator

disintegrator — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 04:38:35 -0800

Oh clintonsarmy... You used to have relevance...

Comment by Lord Basil

Lord Basil — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 07:13:04 -0800

You just wait and see what happens if Obama wins. There will be as fierce an opposition to high taxes, universal health care, and surrender in the War on Terror as you've ever seen.

Loyal Americans will sweep the Marxists out of power in '10, and will undo Barack Hussein Osama's pro-Muslim policies, and will likely impeach him, as well the deputies in the Democrat Party who supported him.

Two years of darkness will lead to a thousand years of the American Shining City on a Hill!

Comment by Ziggity

Ziggity — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 07:50:19 -0800

@17: And lemme guess . . . this will all be organized through blog comments and message boards?

Comment by Smade

Smade — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 09:07:29 -0800

I've been assured that all the conservatives are moving to North Idaho after the election and are going to build 20 foot high wall around the state until a Republican is elected president again.

Comment by Schweighsr

Schweighsr — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 09:46:56 -0800

Just get out and Vote!

Comment by inkweary

inkweary — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 10:19:28 -0800

The New York Times is not quite as optimistic as Real clear Politics about the elctoral outcome although they still give Obama a big advantage. The contend there are more stes in play. for comparison both are appended.
Here is NYT
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html

This electoral map was posted yesterday on slog from Real Clear

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/