Presumably this reflects the post-debate bounce? The same poll says that undecideds are only 6% of the electorate now… Which is good news for Obama.

The rational part of my brain is excited by this, but the irrational part is trying to get me to be worried because Obama's win percentage on fivethirtyeight.com has slipped from 95.8% to 93.1% over the past week. Which is ridiculous of course, but, I will be incapable of not worrying until November 5th.

So what's the margin of theft? Let's call it the "Mugabe Margin" -- the point at which election theft becomes so flagrant that nobody in the world believes it was legit.

That's what she said.

You didn't provide a link, but it so happens that clicking on the graphic takes you to the Gallup poll.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls has it narrower with Obama up about 5.

I heard it said that Reagan was down by about 10 points two weeks out in 1980.

Nevertheless, the race will tighten up as they always do and expect it to too close to call as we enter November.

the anti-robo call bounce.

@2: Yes, and of couse the margin of theft is only applicable when Republicans win, but never Democrats. Nixon realized that in 1960 when he graciously decided not to contest shenanigans going on in the Chicago count.

@4. You heard wrong:

A post-election summary of polls by then-CBS News pollster Warren Mitofsky shows that at no point over the final two weeks did Carter have a lead bigger than three percentage points.

Also, in 1980, the only debate between Carter and Reagan was on October 28th. Reagan clearly won that debate, and most people believe that that is what caused him to surge ahead. McCain doesn’t have that kind of chance with only two weeks to go…

This does not matter at all. Give us updates on electoral math, if you're going to give us anything. Right now the Times map shows Obama over the threshold (barely) with only sure and leaning states, needing NONE of the toss-up states. I want to know about changes in that electoral count. This crap is meaningless.

Like I said several weeks ago here, time is not Obama's friend at this point. If you look at trending in most polls, you will see that McCain is moving. Obama has stalled. Is it going to continue like that? Hard to say, but the last week doesn't bode well for Obama.

That said, has anyone seen the garage door on John in Cap Hill that was painted yesterday to look like the Obama "Hope" poster? It is awesome.

There are really two reliable pole numbers in the field - Zogby type poles with Obama up about 4-5, and registered voter poles which have Obama up 10-12.
Zogby type poles use a likely voter modelt that more or less discounts minorities, excludes all new voters over 21 and only includes young new voters if they now details like where their poling place is.
Zogby himself has said he would not be surprised if the actual voter turnout was higher for those traditionally exlcuded and discounted groups, but he has not history to base that on, so he's stuck using his best model.
It really boils down to whether the masses seemingly excited by the prospect of an Obama presidency will actually turn out to vote for him. If youth, new voter and minority turnouts are above average or even way above average, then the 10-12 percent margin is the one we'll see. If history repeats itself and the young, minorities and newly registered voters don't bother to show up at the polls, then it's going to more like the Zogby numbers at 4-5%.

@6: If election fraud has taken place it stand to reason that the party in office is the perpetrator. Questions surrounding the validity of the last two presidential elections have been documented here and elsewhere. It's only a Google search away, if you care. Start with "Palast Florida."

As for 1960, I've come to believe that Nixon didn't contest the highly dubious Illinois results that put Kennedy in office because it would have exposed his own less successful attempts to stuff ballot boxes in rural Illinois -- his efforts could not compete with Daley's Chicago machine. There, you see, I just admitted to Democratic vote fraud.

You may now proceed to argue that Nixon's subsequent unblemished record for honesty and transparency in government proves he would never attempt such a thing himself.

Loose lips sink ships
So come aboard for a pleasure trip
It's high tide so let's ride
The moon is risin' and so am I
I'm gonna get it up
Never gonna let it up
Cruisin' on the seven seas
A pirate of my lovin' needs
I'll never go down
Never go down
So let's get it up
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Let's get it up, right to the top
Let's get it up, right now

Loose wires cause fires
Gettin' tangled in my desires, so
Screw 'em up and plug 'em in
Then switch it on and start all over again
I'm gonna get it up
Never gonna let it up, no
Tickin' like a time bomb, oh yeah
Blowin' out the fuse box
I'll never go down
Never go down, so
Let's get it up, let's get it up, get it up
Let's get it up, right up to the top
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Get it up, c'mon ang

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Get it up, get it up, get it up
Right up