Do you think I've got it right, shub, about Obama and the nuances of the racism in those parts? You're from that area (northern N.C.?) and I'm sure know it better than I do.

1) There are some incorrect assumptions out there that the Bradley Effect has subsided. The Bradley Effect happens in racially mixed areas when a Africian American is running against a Caucasian. Scholars who are saying it's subsiding are often looking at predominately African-American cities where African-Americans are getting elected with margins similar to their polling and saying, "look no Bradley effect."

There are not very many examples of racially mixed electorates electing African American officeholders to use to measure the Bradley Effect. (There IS Illinois!...but can't really do a Bradley Effect measure there because Obama didn't run against a white guy)

2. There is a reverse Bradley in the deep south. Apparently some people in places where there is a lot of race hatred are likely to say that they WON'T vote for the African-American, but then do!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27108465#27108465

Please.

Thanks for the analysis and anecdotes, Brendan. They were illuminating.

Otherwise an excellent post. Makes me wonder if the the white folk in the semi-rural SC neighborhood i grew up in still refer to their black neighbors as slaves (as they did way back in the 1980s)

Now that I think about it though, maybe it's not quite so unexpected after all, given that dyed-in-the-wool beliefs about race don't so much change as die off with their owners. In that respect I guess I really should consider it progress, of a sort.

The other day, my cognitively dissonant, racist Dad mentioned to me that he's getting an annoying amount of email from the Obama campaign asking him to donate *more*, implying that he's donated to Obama already. This from the guy that used to get Christmas cards from the Quayles and Bushes for donating to them! WTF? My brain hurts.

Certainly, there are reasons to say New Hampshire was an outlier and the total collapse resulted from something besides race—an more humble, approachable Clinton, for instance—but race-induced reluctance in the voting booth could be an equally plausible explanation.

Race is, clearly, a factor in American politics. In this "post-racial" day and age, Obama is still the only black American in the U.S. Senate, and the most prominent black politician of his generation.

He's achieved the success he has because he has distanced himself from race. As this post indicates, Obama has erased all connection to the racial history of this country to transcend race and open himself to broader voter base. He has avoided contact with recognized African American leaders and racial issues that have "receded from national prominence (largely because the Democrats have refused to discuss them)." His opponents have tried their best to mark him as a member of the black community formed by the descendants of American slavery; he has done a better job of marking himself as "Other."

I don't know if he's done enough to win the votes of bigots, casual racists, or independents gun shy about voting for someone they suspect isn't post-racial at heart. But I know Obama got a lot of momentum and support from caucus states, to many for me to feel comfortable predicting his future electoral success.

It took a devastating economic crisis to open up an Obama lead that by what Americans say are their policy positions should be much larger. Given his opponent, the issues, and the times, I find it hard to believe race isn't playing a prominent role.

I guess what I'm saying is I don't share Brendan's optimism.

And by that standard, you're better off Dead than Red.

I'm making a sincere effort to follow you here, but I really don't see how straight-ticket voting changes the fact that at the end of the day one candidate gets more votes than the other. Are you saying that people who are in the tank for one side or another--nothing wrong with that, it's what politics is about--somehow don't really count as part of a majority? Or is what you're saying that majorities in recent Presidential elections are so slim that they always fall within the margin of error inherent in the system, so to speak?

The Founders had doubts about direct popular election of a President; that's why they established the Electoral College. They were afraid of the demagoguery that campaigns for direct election of a President would bring. You seem to have some echo of their sentiments here.

If Obama wanted to distance himself from race he would have gone to work for corporate America instead of community organzing in the hood.

If he wanted to distance himself from race he would have married and fathered children with a white woman and not a black one.

Obama is where he is act because he understands "race" and how it is played out in the US.

He had to deal with race on both sides of lines. He was a mixed kid raised by white people that made him "black" by default among whites and "white" by default among blacks.

American racial politics shaped and refined him.

Jessie J, Rev.Al and Farrakan aren't going to disappear because Obama is on the scene. To suggest they would makes Obama seem more like a race puppet for whites than a US president for all citizens.

Why aren't these names household words btw? Because they belong to black men who rose to the top in the banking and restaurant businesses respectively. Money and food are about as colour-blind as you can get. A dollar spends just the same in a black or white person's hands, and you don't have to be black or white to know a decent pizza when you see one.

Back in April, just as I was getting ready to head for the airport and home, after a family visit, my dad asked me if I really thought Obama could win election as President.

"Well, if he sells himself as a capable politician who just happens to be Black, yes." He shook his head, disbelieving, then.

He shakes his head about it a lot less now, but it's still a major thing for him to digest. For his three children, though, who span the complete political spectrum, it's just not an issue. And that says a lot.