*SLAP* Snap out of it!
Step away from the polls, Dan . . .
Don't worry, it'll switch again tonight because, apparently, McCain has declared that he already won the debate.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/images/26Sep_Friday_WSJ.JPG
Dan, just have your boyfriend fuck away the fear. It works for me every time.
It's the margin of error. We have a 50/50 split and each poll is just a couple points off.
Or: A close race sells more advertising space, so the polls are giving the corporations which own the polling companies the results they want.
I was all hung up on gallup for a while too, but now I go to fivethirtyeight.com and find beautiful statistics and rational discussion that makes it impossible for a single poll to bother me.
Of course, you've heard all of this before.
I think you like the pain.
Dan, those numbers aren't real, what are they, +- 3% at best? So these little-day-to-day movements mean nothing.
The polls are as unstable as the stock market. The "undecideds" are spinning in the wind. When one considers how firm the "decideds" of both parties are in their convictions it is surprising that there can still be so many people who still have not made up their own. The control of our government is literlly based on how these people will feel at the moment they fill out their ballots.
Low res is making me crazy.
Funny, it's making me angry, so angry I can't even articulate it anymore.
My sister sent me this yesterday, normally I'd say it's a bit over the top, but lately I've been wishing I could say the same thing to every idiot I see.
Check it out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWxTQbfsEA8
Dear Dan, please don't let this make you crazy. Polls are statistically inaccurate in predicting how people will vote on election day. Case in point is the youth vote, as most people under age 30 do not vote in elections regardless of what they say when polled. This election hinges on the youth vote.
@7 There's no poll that will give you "real" numbers (at least the way you seem to want them). All polls are +/- something (unless it's a census). If you ever read of a survey that doesn't have a +/- then the author simply isn't being honest with you.
Why are you bothering with that poll at all?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
It's all you need to know (and then some, and then some more, and then you start going blind). They poll all polls, and correct for roughly sixteen billion variables including cell phones, youth vote, poll bias, historical poll accuracy, state polling, etc., etc., etc.
Remember: It's the electoral college that matters. Obama knows how the rules work and if the primaries were any indication he knows how to make them work for him.
And right now it looks like he's got Michigan, Pennsylvania and possibly North Carolina in the bag. Along with the whole West Coast and Eastern Seaboard. The fact is that Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Texas and all those other states just can't make up for those.
So keep an eye on that site and you can know whether or not you actually need to panic (hint: If he starts losing Pennsylvania and Michigan it is time to panic).
I think it's all pretty simple. The basic contour of the race is, it's a toss up; like most northern urban liberals Obama loses a certain segment of the white working class vote -- call 'em the Bubba vote, whatev-- and btw it's not racist cuz they don't like to vote for WHITE urban northern liberals either -- and unless the Democratic candidate talks economics and does so in a direct short way making a connection, the Democrat loses.
This is repeated over and over and the inability to recognize this is kind of amazing. But anyway, the problem facing Obama is until he becomes the leader who can explain why this mess happened, who is to blame for greed and corruption, how he's going to change it, how his plans will bring the average family and all those WalMart moms better times, and why McCain is corrupt dirty devil, then he's at risk of losing.
I say at risk because hey, a two point lead is a lead. And hey, he's got this huge economic meltdown to work with? This helps the Democrat. Pretty steep price to pay. But when you listen to the Obama surrogates wailing and moaning about McCain flip flopped now he's going to the debate all I can think is: there goes another chance for Democrats to explain the economic betterment that they stand for.
And yes, Obama is way too wordy. He pauses like 6 times in one sentence and he has subordinate clauses and shit all over the place. He's not very quotable in sound bites and his message doesn't get out all that well.
When Clinton says the issue isn't you are you for, it's who is for you, that's a nice clean sound bite that gets across. IT's an example of good communication. Most Democrats are really bad at this and our amen chorus actually loves candidates who are all cerebral and shit. why you can read posts celebrating the fact that they get more nobel laureates endorsing them and shit like that -- as if that meant anything in a democratic election! What a silly, silly idea. Anyway I think you get the gist.
It isn't that he's a couple points up one day and a couple points down another day.
What really makes me crazy is watching McCain and Palin completely implode. She is batshit crazy and dumb as a stump. He lurches from one Hail Mary to another, and looks like a doddering idiot when he read a teleprompter. Both of them have pissed off the press and lied so often and so consistently that we barely even pay attention. They have to work to draw more than a few hundred people to an event.
Obama is smart, articulate, a great speaker, and draws rock star crowds. He's appeared calm and reassuring during this "financial crisis", while McCain looks like he's ready to panic himself.
Why, oh why, isn't Obama 40 points ahead in the polls, instead of 3? THAT'S what is making me crazy.
Me too.
All they need is to gin up the polls enough before the election to make the theft of the election credible.
I don't think you're understanding the concept of "margin of error". Its impossible to tell the true opinion of the entire country based on a subset within the moe. Thus these fluctuations of a few points are random and completely expected. Ask Golob about it.
don't bother with any of the polls. waste of time. no sense in feeling crazy about it.
Could be worse. Could be pit bulls.
What is interesting about those numbers is that the total is getting larger. Undecideds are deciding. That's good news.
@10: Couldn't have said it better.
You're not seeing any movement. What you're seeing is the statistical equivalent of those little lights that pop behind your closed eyelids when you press your palms over your face.
Savage would be a horrible trader.
ProTip: Use a three or four frame non-anti-aliased zoom for teh funneh.
But the real question of course, is this: with McCain's campaign seriously imploding, why aren't we seeing any movement in the polls? Are people really that inflexible once they've decided on a candidate? Or are all of the polls crap?
@22: I don't get any little lights. Should I be worried?
Somebody needs to take more Pollzac.
Dan,
I am so with you. My obsession with this election is ruining my life. I'll be glad when November 4th is in the past and we can all look back at this time as a hilarious comedy.
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