Slog - Comments on Re: Worry http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry I am the last person in the world to begrudge people their election anxiety, but looking at some of the electoral college vote prediction sites that I frequent, I don't see as much cause for Obama-related alarm. At least not today. Here's the current Real Clear Politics map. It's close, but Obama wins: FiveThirtyEight and ElectoralVote agree: If the election were held today, Obama would be the victor (and, according to their models, by an even larger margin than RCP is showing). The key phrase, of course, being: If the election were held today. Which it will not be.... Copyright 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 13:59:09 -0800 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 17:24:01 -0800 http://www.movabletype.org/?v=3.34 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Comment by did I miss it? No comment on Chopp's plan for the viaduct?

]]> did I miss it? http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150516 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150516 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:02:33 -0800 Comment by john Can I just drink a bunch of jack and eat some pills and wake up on Nov 5th?

This election is killing me.

]]> john http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150522 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150522 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:06:07 -0800 Comment by Bellevue Ave well lookie here, a map that doesn't have obama winning ohio or florida yet still winning the election. and people mocked me for pointing this out.

]]> Bellevue Ave http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150524 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150524 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:08:10 -0800 Comment by Ziggity What a fine-lookin' republic.

]]> Ziggity http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150531 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150531 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:10:19 -0800 Comment by Medina Thanks for the reality check, Eli. People are freaking out over nothing. The math is substantially in Obama's favor.

McCain has a chance to win, but only an increasingly small one. Everything has to go his way, and then he still needs luck.

Obama wins, McCain is done. It's a mathematical certainty.

]]> Medina http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150536 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150536 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:13:30 -0800 Comment by Aislinn @3: But it does show him winning Colorado, which is totally iffy.

]]> Aislinn http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150537 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150537 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:13:33 -0800 Comment by Andrew Taylor See:

http://millerparkseattle.blogspot.com/2008/09/presidential-election-plausible.html

]]> Andrew Taylor http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150539 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150539 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:14:35 -0800 Comment by keshmeshi @6,

No, it's not. Obama is even doing well in Virginia and Florida. In 40 days or so, that map will have much more blue on it.

]]> keshmeshi http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150549 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150549 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:23:46 -0800 Comment by Mike of Renton @6 Obama winning Colorado is a lot less iffy than his losing Virginia. Both 538 and EV have VA blue.

]]> Mike of Renton http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150550 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150550 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:25:50 -0800 Comment by Greg Ah, but the election will be held after McCain and Palin totally flame out in the debates.

]]> Greg http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150552 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150552 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:26:52 -0800 Comment by PopTart @6 I agree with Aislinn, Colorado still seems like a toss-up. But I find it hard to believe Obama won't win Virginia.

If it remains this close, I think it will stay up in the air, even on November 5th, because attorneys for both sides are already lining up the vote challenges.

Of course, McCain could drop dead, we could learn a shocking secret about one of the candidates (though God knows what anyone would find shocking at this point), or Bush/Cheney could pull an October surprise out of their asses and that could completely change the game.

]]> PopTart http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150556 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150556 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:29:43 -0800 Comment by mcbush And take away New Hampshire- which has always liked McCain, and gave Hillary that primary surprise-- and you come out with 269-269....

Also bear in mind, undecideds will definitely favor McCain....

Hope our anxieties are leading to donations and volunteer efforts...

If Obama doesn't take a commanding lead after the debates we're in trouble.

]]> mcbush http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150569 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150569 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:40:26 -0800 Comment by distrust Another key phrase: if the vote count is fair.

See http://stealingamericathemovie.org/

]]> distrust http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150570 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150570 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:41:48 -0800 Comment by Julie in Chicago 8 electoral votes? This map makes me feel neither better nor worse.

]]> Julie in Chicago http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150571 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150571 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:42:04 -0800 Comment by Original Monique @Poptart: I have family in Virginia and recently visted there. Trust me, it could easily go McCain.

If it isn't already leaning that way.

]]> Original Monique http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150575 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150575 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:46:27 -0800 Comment by cressona mcbush @12:
And take away New Hampshire- which has always liked McCain, and gave Hillary that primary surprise-- and you come out with 269-269....

I've been meaning to mention the distinct possibility of an electoral college tie. As you say, mcbush, take NH off the blue column in that RCP map and you get 269 apiece. Take NH and VA off the Electoral Vote map and you get 269.

The thing is, though, even this "worse" case scenario gives an indication of Obama's cushion. Because an electoral college tie goes to the House of Representatives, and the House is Dem-controlled. See: Pelosi, Nancy.

Which means, Obama could lose NH, VA, OH, FL, and NV and still win the election. Actually, I'm pretty darn confident in Colorado and New Mexico.

Does this mean I'm confident on the whole? Well, not enough to rest easy. On that front, I'm with john @2. An Obama victory would be just so historic that, until it actually happens, you have a hard time believing it will happen. And though I don't put much credence in the Bradley effect, I do put some credence in the general fearfulness of the American people to take any kind of leap.

]]> cressona http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150583 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150583 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:53:32 -0800 Comment by Andy Niable While I'm going to keep this map in mind, I'm going to continue to WORK like he's coming up short. We need more than a close-win if we want any sort of mandate for an Obama administration. That means more votes, more states, and more down-ticket Dem wins to increase majorities in both houses of Congress.

]]> Andy Niable http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150603 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150603 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:17:02 -0800 Comment by Mikki @3: You were probably being cocky/snotty when you pointed it out. Seriously though, people need to relax and save the crazy meltdowns for after the election. Clearheaded people get better results, and if people are actually trying to accomplish something here then that would be helpful.

]]> Mikki http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150609 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150609 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:21:05 -0800 Comment by treacle I'm with @13 there: Assuming no dirty tricks from the GOP. Like the last two elections. Just ask investigative reporter Greg Palast.

]]> treacle http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150613 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150613 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:27:41 -0800 Comment by michael strangeways uh, what numbers are you looking at and where? Colorado has been polling similar to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan for Obama and the numbers have been consistent.

Chill.

Despite the narrow margins, Minnesota and Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania WILL stay blue. Ohio is a big question mark, but Obama CAN win without it.

The race in Virginia is VERY tight and Obama has been making consistent gains in Florida and North Carolina and surprisingly, in Indiana and West Virginia.

But it is spooky that little New Hampshire or Nevada could decide the race.

]]> michael strangeways http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150635 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150635 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:42:23 -0800 Comment by michael strangeways ElectoralVote.com has a pretty map but I don't find it reliable.

Pollster.com is a better choice as a source but people should look at several sites to get the best overall picture.

]]> michael strangeways http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150645 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150645 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:50:47 -0800 Comment by mcbush dearest cressona,
could you imagine the house dems "stealing" a tied electoral map decision? kiss mandate goodbye. kiss 2010 mid-term goodbye...
just sayin'...
and again, i stress the undecideds. figure them to go at least 60% McCain, if not 70 or 80, because as we all know, the first thing people need in a president is trust. and that last thing white americans do is trust a black man....
so, that gives mccain at least a 1 point cushion, if not 2. a recipe for disaster in a close election...

hope these cell phone unable to reach youth voters are gonna be out there....
in the voice of clay davis- "shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit"

]]> mcbush http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150661 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150661 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:59:38 -0800 Comment by kerri harrop Every time I see maps like this, I am thankful to live on the West Coast all over again.

]]> kerri harrop http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150762 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/re_worry#c1150762 2008 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 17:24:01 -0800