No comment on Chopp's plan for the viaduct?

Can I just drink a bunch of jack and eat some pills and wake up on Nov 5th?

This election is killing me.

well lookie here, a map that doesn't have obama winning ohio or florida yet still winning the election. and people mocked me for pointing this out.

What a fine-lookin' republic.

Thanks for the reality check, Eli. People are freaking out over nothing. The math is substantially in Obama's favor.

McCain has a chance to win, but only an increasingly small one. Everything has to go his way, and then he still needs luck.

Obama wins, McCain is done. It's a mathematical certainty.

@3: But it does show him winning Colorado, which is totally iffy.

See:

http://millerparkseattle.blogspot.com/2008/09/presidential-election-plausible.html

@6,

No, it's not. Obama is even doing well in Virginia and Florida. In 40 days or so, that map will have much more blue on it.

@6 Obama winning Colorado is a lot less iffy than his losing Virginia. Both 538 and EV have VA blue.

Ah, but the election will be held after McCain and Palin totally flame out in the debates.

@6 I agree with Aislinn, Colorado still seems like a toss-up. But I find it hard to believe Obama won't win Virginia.

If it remains this close, I think it will stay up in the air, even on November 5th, because attorneys for both sides are already lining up the vote challenges.

Of course, McCain could drop dead, we could learn a shocking secret about one of the candidates (though God knows what anyone would find shocking at this point), or Bush/Cheney could pull an October surprise out of their asses and that could completely change the game.

And take away New Hampshire- which has always liked McCain, and gave Hillary that primary surprise-- and you come out with 269-269....

Also bear in mind, undecideds will definitely favor McCain....

Hope our anxieties are leading to donations and volunteer efforts...

If Obama doesn't take a commanding lead after the debates we're in trouble.

Another key phrase: if the vote count is fair.

See http://stealingamericathemovie.org/

8 electoral votes? This map makes me feel neither better nor worse.

@Poptart: I have family in Virginia and recently visted there. Trust me, it could easily go McCain.

If it isn't already leaning that way.

mcbush @12:

And take away New Hampshire- which has always liked McCain, and gave Hillary that primary surprise-- and you come out with 269-269....

I've been meaning to mention the distinct possibility of an electoral college tie. As you say, mcbush, take NH off the blue column in that RCP map and you get 269 apiece. Take NH and VA off the Electoral Vote map and you get 269.

The thing is, though, even this "worse" case scenario gives an indication of Obama's cushion. Because an electoral college tie goes to the House of Representatives, and the House is Dem-controlled. See: Pelosi, Nancy.

Which means, Obama could lose NH, VA, OH, FL, and NV and still win the election. Actually, I'm pretty darn confident in Colorado and New Mexico.

Does this mean I'm confident on the whole? Well, not enough to rest easy. On that front, I'm with john @2. An Obama victory would be just so historic that, until it actually happens, you have a hard time believing it will happen. And though I don't put much credence in the Bradley effect, I do put some credence in the general fearfulness of the American people to take any kind of leap.

While I'm going to keep this map in mind, I'm going to continue to WORK like he's coming up short. We need more than a close-win if we want any sort of mandate for an Obama administration. That means more votes, more states, and more down-ticket Dem wins to increase majorities in both houses of Congress.

@3: You were probably being cocky/snotty when you pointed it out. Seriously though, people need to relax and save the crazy meltdowns for after the election. Clearheaded people get better results, and if people are actually trying to accomplish something here then that would be helpful.

I'm with @13 there: Assuming no dirty tricks from the GOP. Like the last two elections. Just ask investigative reporter Greg Palast.

uh, what numbers are you looking at and where? Colorado has been polling similar to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan for Obama and the numbers have been consistent.

Chill.

Despite the narrow margins, Minnesota and Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania WILL stay blue. Ohio is a big question mark, but Obama CAN win without it.

The race in Virginia is VERY tight and Obama has been making consistent gains in Florida and North Carolina and surprisingly, in Indiana and West Virginia.

But it is spooky that little New Hampshire or Nevada could decide the race.

ElectoralVote.com has a pretty map but I don't find it reliable.

Pollster.com is a better choice as a source but people should look at several sites to get the best overall picture.

dearest cressona,
could you imagine the house dems "stealing" a tied electoral map decision? kiss mandate goodbye. kiss 2010 mid-term goodbye...
just sayin'...
and again, i stress the undecideds. figure them to go at least 60% McCain, if not 70 or 80, because as we all know, the first thing people need in a president is trust. and that last thing white americans do is trust a black man....
so, that gives mccain at least a 1 point cushion, if not 2. a recipe for disaster in a close election...

hope these cell phone unable to reach youth voters are gonna be out there....
in the voice of clay davis- "shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit"

Every time I see maps like this, I am thankful to live on the West Coast all over again.