Slog - Comments on "It's Over" http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over Peggy Noonan says so. But if these new state polls hold up, you won't have to take the Republican operative's word for it: OHIO: Obama 47, McCain 45 MINNESOTA: Obama 53, McCain 41 IOWA: Obama 55, McCain 40 It's never been about what Peggy Noonan thinks about Sarah Palin and narratives (no matter how delicious her caught-on-mic criticism of McCain's VP pick). Nor has it ever been about what the national tracking polls say. It has always been—and will continued to be—about a handful of swing states, which way those states tip on Nov. 4, and how that alters the... Copyright 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:45:17 -0800 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 15:58:01 -0800 http://www.movabletype.org/?v=3.34 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Comment by michael strangeways yes, but let's not get the party hats out just yet...a lotta shit can happen in the next 61 days.

]]> michael strangeways http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121491 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121491 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:47:04 -0800 Comment by Will in Seattle This is one of those rare times when Peggy Noonan is right.

Just seeing the unreality cloak of RNC operatives refusing to answer direct questions by CNBC reporters - conservative reporters - tells me they've blown off their base.

It's not just nobody buying their stuff. It's nobody buys their message anymore.

And they're headed for the cliff at an ever accelerating speed, in a game of hardball chicken with their own reflection in the sun-reflecting window.

]]> Will in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121493 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121493 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:47:16 -0800 Comment by Cato the Younger Younger I would not get cocky at all...there is something strange happening in the GOP and frankly, this election is not over until Obama has taken the oath of office on January 20 2009

]]> Cato the Younger Younger http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121504 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121504 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:49:34 -0800 Comment by ahava I agree -- it ain't over til it's over and we've seen the Rs pull a lot of stunts to win. There is still time for some swift-boat maneuver to happen.

That said, ya gotta love those numbers and the fact that there doesn't even seem to be a republican message, except war is good and isn't Sarah Palin a breath of fresh air...

]]> ahava http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121519 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121519 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:52:50 -0800 Comment by Queen_of_Sleaze I agree @3... I will be unable to sleep soundt until Bush has been put out to pasture (or preferably put down) and Obama is behind that desk in the oval office.

]]> Queen_of_Sleaze http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121525 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121525 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:54:07 -0800 Comment by Jonathan Golob Eli: Agreed.

]]> Jonathan Golob http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121527 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121527 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:54:36 -0800 Comment by daniel The results when people get into their private booths will be 5-10% different from the poll results the day before.

]]> daniel http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121534 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121534 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:56:59 -0800 Comment by cmaceachen I'm expecting an October Surprise. Honestly, I'm getting scared.

]]> cmaceachen http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121572 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121572 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:06:42 -0800 Comment by chops the clown car of scandal continues!!

the enquirer is always right...right?

]]> chops http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121593 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121593 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:10:55 -0800 Comment by chops ergh. link stripped:

AFFAIR!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/09/03/politics/fromtheroad/entry4413030.shtml

]]> chops http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121600 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121600 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:12:56 -0800 Comment by Gomez That it's become about the swing states says it all about how politically polarized this country has chosen to become... both major parties.

Bill Clinton carried most of those Southern and Midwestern states in both his election victories. He didn't need no fucking swing states.

]]> Gomez http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121602 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121602 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:13:22 -0800 Comment by irl Everyone knows Bam-bi is gonna win.. . .
That's why McCain and especially Palin are the sacrafical lambs. No one with half a brain wants to run as the VP with McCain.

]]> irl http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121612 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121612 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:15:39 -0800 Comment by Jonathan Golob Gomez--

Let's not forget the effect of Perot in 1992. Yes, Clinton won a far wider array of states than Bush in 2000. But, he rarely won over 50% of the votes in any given state.

I'm waiting to see how Palin performs tonight and in the near future. Most of the state-by-state statistical models give Obama a fair chance (1/4) of a Clinton-style blowout in the electoral college--even when projecting a tight race in the overall popular vote.

]]> Jonathan Golob http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121633 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121633 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:23:02 -0800 Comment by It's Mark Mitchell It's been uniquely satisfying this week to watch the old guard with the their faint smell of adult diapers shitting themselves with horror.

But I'm with everyone else. It ain't over until it's over.

]]> It's Mark Mitchell http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121636 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121636 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:23:20 -0800 Comment by flamingbanjo I would like to see Obama going in to Election Day with at least a fifteen-point margin -- I figure that's about how much it would have to be for an election theft to be too implausible to sell. So there's still a lot of work to be done.

Certain animals are at their most dangerous when cornered, and I count elephants among that group.

]]> flamingbanjo http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121646 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121646 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:26:07 -0800 Comment by lorax Sorry, but a 2-point lead in Ohio is not comfortable enough for me to sleep soundly at night.

]]> lorax http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121678 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121678 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:33:13 -0800 Comment by Will in Seattle @3 and @8 sadly tied for the win.

Dangerous animals should be put down.

]]> Will in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121680 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121680 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:33:49 -0800 Comment by Fnarf The biggest thing in Obama's favor right now is the Republican crackup. You have three wings in the GOP; the old-school ones who only really care about money (the only ones with a lick of common sense), the evangelicals, and the libertarians. They're all pulling away from each other right now. Bush united the three, but McCain has to resort to a desperate measure (Palin) to try to hold the first two together, but she's going to drive away a ton of the first group. The third group goes off into the weeds with Bob Barr. A dream result would have the GOP become 100% evangelical -- basically a minor party. It could be thirty or forty years before the sensible ones can take control again.

]]> Fnarf http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121684 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121684 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:35:13 -0800 Comment by LMSW At the risk of being broken record, once again I say "It all comes down to Ohio." I'll feel better when there is a 10 point lead in Ohio for Obama.

]]> LMSW http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121685 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121685 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:35:32 -0800 Comment by LMSW *a broken record.

]]> LMSW http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121707 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121707 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:42:29 -0800 Comment by Original Monique @11: I think we'll go the way of Europe and break up into more easily managed bits. But I doubt I'll see it in my lifetime. I'd love to be apart of a country that consisted of Oregon, Washington, California, and maybe Nevada.

]]> Original Monique http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121710 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121710 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:43:05 -0800 Comment by whatevernevermind The October Surprise will be Iran. Dutch espionage operatives have stopped their efforts to sabotage Iranian nuclear plants because the US will be bombing them soon according to this:

The Jerusalem Post summarizes the De Telegraaf article as saying that "the Dutch operation had been 'extremely successful,' and had been stopped because the US military was planning to hit targets that were 'connected with the Dutch espionage action.' The impending air-strike on Iran was to be carried out by unmanned aircraft 'within weeks,' the report claimed, quoting 'well placed' sources."

http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/diarypage.php?did=8982

]]> whatevernevermind http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121718 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121718 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:45:13 -0800 Comment by Will in Seattle @18 - most of the Libertarians are breaking windows downtown in riots against the RNC convention, Fnarf.

At least, the ones with guts.

Although I've had two group invites from some who think she's keen and are willing to sell out their beliefs for a quick shot at destroying America with another four years of Failure and Incompetence.

]]> Will in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121724 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121724 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:46:15 -0800 Comment by Sad Comment Like I said before, these polls are nothing that Diebold can't fix.

]]> Sad Comment http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121790 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121790 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 16:03:03 -0800 Comment by Gomez Still, we don't know that all of the Perot voters, had Perot not run, would've voted Republican otherwise. It's just assumed that most of Perot's base were disgruntled Republicans.

I think Clinton's would've exceeded 50% in several states easily without Perot, let alone still won most of those states.

]]> Gomez http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121917 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121917 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 16:28:15 -0800 Comment by max solomon 15 percentage points in Iowa? who knew they had they bizniss strate?

]]> max solomon http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121948 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1121948 2008 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 16:34:29 -0800 Comment by Jen I'm going Agnostic on this one. I'm going to pray this is true and still vote for Obama in Florida.

]]> Jen http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1125336 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1125336 2008 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 15:10:50 -0800 Comment by Jennifer in Chicago Dear God, please let this be true...

]]> Jennifer in Chicago http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1125455 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1125455 2008 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 15:56:31 -0800 Comment by Jennifer in Chicago I'm going Agnostic on this one. I'm going to pray it's true and convince all my relatives in Florida to vote for Obama.

]]> Jennifer in Chicago http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1125462 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/its_over#c1125462 2008 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 15:58:01 -0800