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Wednesday, September 3, 2008

“It’s Over”

posted by on September 3 at 14:45 PM

Peggy Noonan says so. But if these new state polls hold up, you won’t have to take the Republican operative’s word for it:

OHIO: Obama 47, McCain 45

MINNESOTA: Obama 53, McCain 41

IOWA: Obama 55, McCain 40

It’s never been about what Peggy Noonan thinks about Sarah Palin and narratives (no matter how delicious her caught-on-mic criticism of McCain’s VP pick). Nor has it ever been about what the national tracking polls say. It has always been—and will continued to be—about a handful of swing states, which way those states tip on Nov. 4, and how that alters the electoral math.

So do the math using the results of these new state polls. If Obama wins all of the above states, and all of the states that are currently considered safely in his column or leaning his way, then that’s it, game over, he has more than 270 electoral votes and the Democrats have the White House.

(And, I might add, in this scenario Obama wins the White House without taking one Southern state or Florida.)

RSS icon Comments

1

yes, but let's not get the party hats out just yet...a lotta shit can happen in the next 61 days.

Posted by michael strangeways | September 3, 2008 2:47 PM
2

This is one of those rare times when Peggy Noonan is right.

Just seeing the unreality cloak of RNC operatives refusing to answer direct questions by CNBC reporters - conservative reporters - tells me they've blown off their base.

It's not just nobody buying their stuff. It's nobody buys their message anymore.

And they're headed for the cliff at an ever accelerating speed, in a game of hardball chicken with their own reflection in the sun-reflecting window.

Posted by Will in Seattle | September 3, 2008 2:47 PM
3

I would not get cocky at all...there is something strange happening in the GOP and frankly, this election is not over until Obama has taken the oath of office on January 20 2009

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger | September 3, 2008 2:49 PM
4

I agree -- it ain't over til it's over and we've seen the Rs pull a lot of stunts to win. There is still time for some swift-boat maneuver to happen.

That said, ya gotta love those numbers and the fact that there doesn't even seem to be a republican message, except war is good and isn't Sarah Palin a breath of fresh air...

Posted by ahava | September 3, 2008 2:52 PM
5

I agree @3... I will be unable to sleep soundt until Bush has been put out to pasture (or preferably put down) and Obama is behind that desk in the oval office.

Posted by Queen_of_Sleaze | September 3, 2008 2:54 PM
6

Eli: Agreed.

Posted by Jonathan Golob | September 3, 2008 2:54 PM
7

The results when people get into their private booths will be 5-10% different from the poll results the day before.

Posted by daniel | September 3, 2008 2:56 PM
8

I'm expecting an October Surprise. Honestly, I'm getting scared.

Posted by cmaceachen | September 3, 2008 3:06 PM
9

the clown car of scandal continues!!

the enquirer is always right...right?

Posted by chops | September 3, 2008 3:10 PM
10
Posted by chops | September 3, 2008 3:12 PM
11

That it's become about the swing states says it all about how politically polarized this country has chosen to become... both major parties.

Bill Clinton carried most of those Southern and Midwestern states in both his election victories. He didn't need no fucking swing states.

Posted by Gomez | September 3, 2008 3:13 PM
12

Everyone knows Bam-bi is gonna win.. . .
That's why McCain and especially Palin are the sacrafical lambs. No one with half a brain wants to run as the VP with McCain.

Posted by irl | September 3, 2008 3:15 PM
13

Gomez--

Let's not forget the effect of Perot in 1992. Yes, Clinton won a far wider array of states than Bush in 2000. But, he rarely won over 50% of the votes in any given state.

I'm waiting to see how Palin performs tonight and in the near future. Most of the state-by-state statistical models give Obama a fair chance (1/4) of a Clinton-style blowout in the electoral college--even when projecting a tight race in the overall popular vote.

Posted by Jonathan Golob | September 3, 2008 3:23 PM
14

It's been uniquely satisfying this week to watch the old guard with the their faint smell of adult diapers shitting themselves with horror.

But I'm with everyone else. It ain't over until it's over.

Posted by It's Mark Mitchell | September 3, 2008 3:23 PM
15

I would like to see Obama going in to Election Day with at least a fifteen-point margin -- I figure that's about how much it would have to be for an election theft to be too implausible to sell. So there's still a lot of work to be done.

Certain animals are at their most dangerous when cornered, and I count elephants among that group.

Posted by flamingbanjo | September 3, 2008 3:26 PM
16

Sorry, but a 2-point lead in Ohio is not comfortable enough for me to sleep soundly at night.

Posted by lorax | September 3, 2008 3:33 PM
17

@3 and @8 sadly tied for the win.

Dangerous animals should be put down.

Posted by Will in Seattle | September 3, 2008 3:33 PM
18

The biggest thing in Obama's favor right now is the Republican crackup. You have three wings in the GOP; the old-school ones who only really care about money (the only ones with a lick of common sense), the evangelicals, and the libertarians. They're all pulling away from each other right now. Bush united the three, but McCain has to resort to a desperate measure (Palin) to try to hold the first two together, but she's going to drive away a ton of the first group. The third group goes off into the weeds with Bob Barr. A dream result would have the GOP become 100% evangelical -- basically a minor party. It could be thirty or forty years before the sensible ones can take control again.

Posted by Fnarf | September 3, 2008 3:35 PM
19

At the risk of being broken record, once again I say "It all comes down to Ohio." I'll feel better when there is a 10 point lead in Ohio for Obama.

Posted by LMSW | September 3, 2008 3:35 PM
20

*a broken record.

Posted by LMSW | September 3, 2008 3:42 PM
21

@11: I think we'll go the way of Europe and break up into more easily managed bits. But I doubt I'll see it in my lifetime. I'd love to be apart of a country that consisted of Oregon, Washington, California, and maybe Nevada.

Posted by Original Monique | September 3, 2008 3:43 PM
22

The October Surprise will be Iran. Dutch espionage operatives have stopped their efforts to sabotage Iranian nuclear plants because the US will be bombing them soon according to this:

The Jerusalem Post summarizes the De Telegraaf article as saying that "the Dutch operation had been 'extremely successful,' and had been stopped because the US military was planning to hit targets that were 'connected with the Dutch espionage action.' The impending air-strike on Iran was to be carried out by unmanned aircraft 'within weeks,' the report claimed, quoting 'well placed' sources."

http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/diarypage.php?did=8982

Posted by whatevernevermind | September 3, 2008 3:45 PM
23

@18 - most of the Libertarians are breaking windows downtown in riots against the RNC convention, Fnarf.

At least, the ones with guts.

Although I've had two group invites from some who think she's keen and are willing to sell out their beliefs for a quick shot at destroying America with another four years of Failure and Incompetence.

Posted by Will in Seattle | September 3, 2008 3:46 PM
24

Like I said before, these polls are nothing that Diebold can't fix.

Posted by Sad Comment | September 3, 2008 4:03 PM
25

Still, we don't know that all of the Perot voters, had Perot not run, would've voted Republican otherwise. It's just assumed that most of Perot's base were disgruntled Republicans.

I think Clinton's would've exceeded 50% in several states easily without Perot, let alone still won most of those states.

Posted by Gomez | September 3, 2008 4:28 PM
26

15 percentage points in Iowa? who knew they had they bizniss strate?

Posted by max solomon | September 3, 2008 4:34 PM
27

I'm going Agnostic on this one. I'm going to pray this is true and still vote for Obama in Florida.

Posted by Jen | September 4, 2008 3:10 PM
28

Dear God, please let this be true...

Posted by Jennifer in Chicago | September 4, 2008 3:56 PM
29

I'm going Agnostic on this one. I'm going to pray it's true and convince all my relatives in Florida to vote for Obama.

Posted by Jennifer in Chicago | September 4, 2008 3:58 PM

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