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Monday, September 8, 2008

Galluping Past Obama

posted by on September 8 at 11:45 AM

McCain gets his post-convention, post-Palin bounce:

Gallup9-8.jpg

Feeling a panic attack coming on? Breathe deeply and focus on this map.

RSS icon Comments

1

How many people are going to belly-ache in this thread that

a. Obama is now going to lose
b. That Middle America is stupid
c. That the election is being stolen
d. That Obama should have chosen Clinton

Posted by Bellevue Ave | September 8, 2008 11:51 AM
2

No, I don't feel any panic whatsover. But please, by all means cue that John Bailo/PC/YouGottaBeKidding me persona to tell us all why we've already somehow lost.

Posted by Just Sayin' | September 8, 2008 11:51 AM
3

Is this really got you wastoids upset?

If Obama loses to McNasty, then you have no one to blame but yourselves for running a slate of shitty ass candidates for a decade now.

Posted by ecce homo | September 8, 2008 11:53 AM
4

panic attack??? with gaffes like this, how can I not have a fucking panic attack....

Posted by apres_moi | September 8, 2008 11:55 AM
5

I live in a seriously different reality from half of all other Americans, and that is way scarier than the threat of another four years.

Posted by pox | September 8, 2008 11:55 AM
6

I live in a seriously different reality from half of other Americans, and that is way scarier than the threat of another four years.

Posted by pox | September 8, 2008 11:57 AM
7

I told you so.

Posted by yep | September 8, 2008 11:58 AM
8

it's not that our candidates are shitty, it's that our supporters are milquetoasts that think the race is over based on a poll and then stop trying.

Posted by Bellevue Ave | September 8, 2008 11:58 AM
9

Ok, but the one thing people keep forgetting about these electoral maps is that many of the state polls these numbers are based on are 1-3 weeks out of date. Who knows what the numbers would look like with current data?

Posted by poo poo | September 8, 2008 12:00 PM
10

panic attack??? with gaffes like this, how can I not have a fucking panic attack....

Posted by apres_moi | September 8, 2008 12:03 PM
11

Ok, but the one thing to remember when looking at these electoral college maps is that the state polling data used to calculate these numbers is 1-3 weeks out of date in many cases. Not to be a debbie downer, but who knows what the map would actually look like with current data? My guess is that at least a few of the tossup states would be in McCain territory.

Posted by poo poo | September 8, 2008 12:07 PM
12

It is only the first week in September, but it does show us that lots of stupid people like the idea of President Palin. That is what should give us pause to consider.

But if McCain does win, I would suggest moving away from first strike targets (such as Seattle etc.) since a nuclear war will be forthcoming. We will no doubt attack Iran and Russia will retaliate....

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger | September 8, 2008 12:08 PM
13

That map is somewhat comforting, but not entirely so. It has Obama at 217 to McSame's 174, with 147 toss-up votes. Of those toss-up votes, if you look at the breakdown for who's winning in the polls (even if only by a slim margin), that brings Obama's total to 273 and McSame's to 252. VA, with 13 votes is a dead tie but went to Bush in '00 and '04, so assuming it stays red that's 273 to 265.

Which means that I am decidely not panic-attack free.

Posted by Julie in Chicago | September 8, 2008 12:12 PM
14

Obama/Biden is losing ground right now, and may lose the election, because:

1)Iraq is no longer an issue. The surge has succeeded in reducing violence, and Americans no longer turn their tv's on every day to carnage in Iraq.
2)There is a backlash against the "rockstar" persona. "The One," "The Messiah," plays great on Slog and on college campuses, but NOT with a majority of the American electorate.
3)Drill, Drill, Drill. Most Americans support drilling for more oil. The Rep. party is the party of oil drilling, the Dems are the party of global warming and cap-and-trade.
4)Sarah Palin bringing home the conservative base.

Posted by CA | September 8, 2008 12:20 PM
15


c'mon, citing just one poll is silly. why not provide links to info on other polls? i.e.:

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/8/13254/48157/793/591111

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Posted by stinkbug | September 8, 2008 12:24 PM
16

Obama is running the worst post-selection campaign since Bob Dole. He better get his head back in the game!

Posted by fluteprof | September 8, 2008 12:30 PM
17

Of course Obama is going to lose. Duh. This country voted twice for W Bush, twice for Reagan, twice for Nixon (the second time, well after the Watergate break-in had occurred). The only reason Bill Clinton won is because each time two right wing nutcases (Perot & Poppy Bush, then Perot and Dole) were running instead of one. AMERICA LOVES RIGHT WING NUTCASES. So of course America will vote for McCain. All this bullshit about Obama even having a chance is just a media ploy to sell advertising.

Posted by gay dad | September 8, 2008 12:37 PM
18

There's dozens of sites with dozens of electoral maps and polling data...I recommend:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/2008president/

and yes, keep calm...it's only NORMAL for McCain to have a post convention bump and it's only early September. And Obama and Biden are BOTH better debaters/speakers than McCain/Palin.

Posted by michael strangeways | September 8, 2008 12:37 PM
19

Jesus, this site can be so henny-penny. I think it's because most of the commenters are from Seattle, and Seattle is nothing if not a bunch of people trying to prove that they are smarter than everyone else.

Me? I'm dumb, and I admit it. And I'm not down yet. Anyone who has ever played sports knows that it's not time to stick your head in the oven.

It's time to double down and fight. And make sure that the young people - including the hipsters - get off their asses and vote. After all, they're the ones who'll get drafted - not fad old queens like me.

Posted by Catalina Vel-DuRay | September 8, 2008 12:57 PM
20

It really is the Palin-McCain ticket for dumbed down america. the debates will really help decide it, but hard work on all our parts is also required, not the idiot cynicism of " gay dad" and others who give up without a fight. As a former Army infantry NCO, the thought of either Palin or McCain as president/ commander in chief of the armed forces is too damn scary to sit back and surrender without a fight. Shame on the cowards, the cynics and the quitters.

Posted by Gary | September 8, 2008 1:01 PM
21

Jesus, this site can be so henny-penny. I think it's because most of the commenters are from Seattle, and Seattle is nothing if not a bunch of people trying to prove that they are smarter than everyone else.

Me? I'm dumb, and I admit it. And I'm not down yet. Anyone who has ever played sports knows that it's not time to stick your head in the oven.

It's time to double down and fight. And make sure that the young people - including the hipsters - get off their asses and vote. After all, they're the ones who'll get drafted - not fad old queens like me.

Posted by Catalina Vel-DuRay | September 8, 2008 1:04 PM
22

@13

Can we all agree that this guy's an asshole?

http://www.newsweek.com/id/157274

This couldn't have come at a worse time for the Democrats, especially Obama. The hubris is extraordinary. Michigan is a battleground state. There is a distinct possibility of the Dems losing Michigan. Kilpatrick is a damn fool. Detroit suffers enough already.

Posted by lark | September 8, 2008 1:13 PM
23

The ghost of 1972 says, "Hey!" Make sure you greet him warmly, Seattlites. You helped bring him back.


Posted by mydquinn | September 8, 2008 1:39 PM
24

Here is some helpful reading if you are history impaired...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_McGovern

Posted by mydquinn | September 8, 2008 1:43 PM
25

ya know, i feel so...chagrined...supporting Obama was obviously a huge mistake on my part since apparently the election is over, based on the polls taken three days after the RNC.

dangit; if Hillary had the nomination, we'd be homefree now, 'cause she's the perfect candidate that everyone loves! And the Republicans wouldn't dare try any dirty tactics with her!! She is invincible!

ps...why is the ghost of 1972 a man?

That's so...sexist.

Posted by michael strangeways | September 8, 2008 1:49 PM
26

@17 - maybe we can hope that ron paul is the new ross perot

Posted by Super Jesse | September 8, 2008 1:50 PM
27
Posted by You_Gotta_Be_Kidding_Me | September 8, 2008 1:52 PM
28

i've a,ways liked this one. running average of all the major polls in the state with a run down of things that impact the recent polls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Posted by beef | September 8, 2008 1:57 PM
29

Thanks, @27. From this I see that McCain has only surpassed Obama in the polls 5 times in the past years, for what looks like a couple of days to a week at a time.

Once the debates begin, this will prove just another fluke.

Posted by Ziggity | September 8, 2008 2:02 PM
30

Soooo... when's Hillary gonna speak up about Palin? Or will that be counterproductive somehow?

Posted by leek | September 8, 2008 2:21 PM
31

@3O

Hillary has started her 2012 campaign.

I suspect she is McCain's greatest (but most silent) supporter at this moment in history.

Posted by You_Gotta_Be_Kidding_Me | September 8, 2008 2:37 PM
32

CA @14: McCain is for cap-and-trade.

Posted by Fnarf | September 8, 2008 2:58 PM
33

"why is the ghost of 1972 a man?"

How many women held leadership positions in the Democratic party in 1972?

Here is another question for you to ponder...

To which group does Obama belong?

Group A:
Johnson
Carter
Clinton

Group B:
McGovern
Dukakis
Kerry

Here is a hint...

If you believe that Obama will win, you might pick a different group than you would if you know who is running Obama's campaign.

Posted by mydquinn | September 8, 2008 3:04 PM
34

"McCain is for cap-and-trade."

Yeah... so was George W. Bush... until he got elected.

By the way, isn't McCain also against drilling in ANWR & offshore? Oh wait...

Posted by mydquinn | September 8, 2008 3:08 PM
35

Hell. Even Pelosi is about to flip flop on off shore drilling... And Obama will embrace it before election day.

Posted by You_Gotta_Be_Kidding_Me | September 8, 2008 3:23 PM
36

Off-shore drilling is TRIVIA. It's about as relevant to US energy dependence as mopping up the sweat on McCain's brow when he speaks.

Posted by Fnarf | September 8, 2008 4:22 PM
37

Fnarf - you make little sense. Transition demands supply, and the transition will take 20 years, IF, we are serious.

Don't bet on serious.(remember Carter gave this speech)

How about drilling for clean N. Gas?

Too obvious?

Both Mc Cain and Palin have a better grip in public on the need for all resources as we try to break foreign dependence and keep some of that 700 billion for oil which leaves our coffers, at home.

Dems are being out foxed. Sorry.

And all those voters paying top dollar now for gas and heating oil have come to the the conclusion more is better - even if it is not the total solution. How could they be so smart as they think about their kids and the elderly freezing this winter in the northern tier.

Posted by Louis | September 8, 2008 9:57 PM
38

@16: Agreed. Where the hell is Obama?

Posted by me | September 8, 2008 10:21 PM
39

@37: Here's why more domestic drilling is not an effective part of the solution to our dependence on oil.

1) It won't be available for 10 years. That's half your 20-year transition period. So even if the government gives away free money and permits to the oil companies today, you won't see any of that oil for about a decade. Big help, huh?

2) The amount of oil and natural gas that can be produced with domestic sources is MINISCULE compared to our national demand for the same. It's like trying to fill a gas can with a thimble.

3) We can reduce our consumption of oil drasitcally by beefing up fuel efficiency standards for the worst vehicles - trucks and SUVs. The potential savings are enough to overshadow possible increased oil production from new drilling.

4) There are vast untapped sources of natural gas on the Earth's surface, right in all of our cities and towns, that don't require any drilling to exploit. Those sources are organic waste, and producing methane on an industrial scale is simple.

Posted by Greg | September 9, 2008 9:59 AM

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