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Saturday, September 13, 2008

Even More Bad News For…

posted by on September 13 at 9:36 AM

A little extra pain for McCain and Palin:

Today’s Daily Kos tracking poll (conducted by Research2000) continues to show a close race (MoE +/- 3.) McCain and Obama are tied at 47.

Rasmussen has McCain over Obama 48-45 (no change from yesterday), and the others have yet to report. A new Newsweek poll has the candidates at 46-46%

Of great interest are the internals. Look at Sarah Palin’s fav/unfav, which is now below 50% (49/40) and worse than McCain’s or Obama’s (and Biden’s, for that matter.) We’ll need to keep an eye on those going forward; it’s possible the unfavorable press is taking a toll. Assumptions about how this race is turning out may still need to be adjusted to fit the data (not the other way around). Note that we’ve been much more skeptical of Palin-as-candidate, based on polling numbers. For example, from Newsweek:

Quantifying how much of this McCain bounce is attributable to the Palin pick can be tricky. When asked, only 29 percent of respondents in the poll said Palin makes them more likely to support McCain in the fall, a proportion on par with other running-mate selections in recent history, like Al Gore in 1992 and Jack Kemp in 1996. In fact, 22 percent of voters say Palin makes them less likely to support McCain, more than any other recent vice presidential candidate.

Republican pundits who suggest she’s made of teflon may need to reconsider.

RSS icon Comments

1

A little "pain" for Palin and McCain?

Two weeks ago Obama and for the last few months, Obama had a steady and consistent lead -- and now it's tied -- this is "pain"?

What.
The.
Fuck??

Take a look at the real clear politics electoral map, showing for the first time in many moons, McCain LEADING Obama in their electoral college count, it's 227 McCain to 217 Obama.

Um, folks, focusing on one internal dynamic with Palin's negatives is rather like finding one clean flower, in a great big pile of moose shit.

So do not rest on your laurels quite yet.

1. donate to Obama now.
2. travel to a swing state to volunteer. Washington is in the bag.
3. Help our dude develop his positive, sharp economic message which he still hasn't figured out yet if the appearance in NH yesterday is any guide -- three different people in the crowd BEGGED him to sharpen his attacks.

[btw exactly how much is Obama's tax cut for the average family? Anybody know? Why is this a secret? Is it $100? $1000?]

MSNBC just said Barack cancelling his appearance Sat. night on SNL.

Excuse: hurricane makes this inapropriate.

G-r-e-a-t....giving up free national media.....guess he couldn't figure out how to get the free media, saying something thoughtful and kind about hurricance victims and (um, der, hyuk, hyuk, his freaking MESSAGE to VOTERS......

Somehow, this challenge of appearing on a talk show and saying something presidential and hopeful -- and includling his concise message -- is beyond him??

CM's post below similarly is just happytalk -- suggesting Palin is a drag while noting "The national poll finds Republican McCain with the support of 46 percent of registered voters and Democrat Obama with 45 percent."

Hello? Behind behind -- is actually good news?
A little more of this "good news" and Obama will be 2 points behind, then three points behind...

Gulp, gulp gulp gulp . ..it's like being at the Giggling Marlin........strap us down in a barber chair, and pass the funnel..gulp gulp gulp . . . 227 to 217, wow that's great news!

Posted by PC | September 13, 2008 10:40 AM
2

so 22% of voters think she is horrible - what is that up from?

that means that less than half the obama voters think she the worst veep they remember - hello agnew and what was perot's guy?

hope away mudede just don't do anything - daily kos poll, right

Posted by McG | September 13, 2008 10:51 AM
3

My prediction is that while the whole Palin thing obviously gave the Repub base something to cheer about for a week or so, (she's not a washington insider!...She's just like us!...She's so pretty!) She's just not going to last another month and a half. If Obama has been coasting on a wave of celebrity, then Palin is just barely being propped up by her novelty and token status.

By the end of October, I imagine the sentiments listed above will turn an uglier shade of (She has no experience dealing with politicians and diplomats outside her home state!!...Why the hell would anyone elect someone like me to the Vice Presidency!?...She's so crazy right-wing!!)

Posted by rococo | September 13, 2008 11:05 AM
4

Dan Savage -brave warrior Oct. 2002

War may be bad for children and other living things, but there are times when peace is worse for children and other living things, and this is one of those times. Saying no to war in Iraq means saying yes to the continued oppression of the Iraqi people.

In the meantime, invading and rebuilding Iraq will not only free the Iraqi people, it will also make the Saudis aware of the consequences they face if they continue to oppress their own people while exporting terrorism and terrorists. The War on Iraq will make it clear to our friends and enemies in the Middle East (and elsewhere) that we mean business: Free your people, reform your societies, liberalize, and democratize... or we're going to come over there, remove you from power, free your people, and reform your societies for ourselves.

Posted by Caesar Salad | September 13, 2008 11:06 AM
5

Also, I'm sad to see that PC has relapsed after a couple concise and nearly coherent comments. My condolences to those you live around, PC, if you talk like you write.

Posted by rococo | September 13, 2008 11:09 AM
6

@1

One of unPC's classic boners, from way back in Feburary. This one is remarkable not just because it is a mere one sentence long, nor that the prediction that Washington would match Minnesota with 67% for Obama was not even close, as we expect from unPC/PC/SusanUnPC/LyingFuckingCuntPC (whatever you like to call her). It's a hat trick, because MN did not return the number 67% in any way shape or form to begin with. In that sense, the derisive "not even wrong" phrase perhaps applies.

Scroll through the same thread for a few other wide misses from our bumbling racist sock puppeteer.

What a retard.

Posted by elenchos | September 13, 2008 11:11 AM
7

elenchus, why in the hell do you have a link back to february - sounds a little obsessive.

Check at

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

They have MN at 66% and WA at 68%. So he's wacky why? He said WA would at 67% yeah that's way off.


PC keeps encouraging you all to donate money to obama and to go out of state to work for him where he thinks it will make more of a difference.

Polling now has WA as a barely O state so I might disagree that going out of state is the right call.

Socrates would not be pleased with your approach ms. elenchus. you're being a stupid ass.

Posted by McG | September 13, 2008 11:33 AM
8

February was the first hit that Google gave me, so why not start there, sock puppet McG? There's more where that came from, rest assured.

And Socrates had a saying: "That was the fucking caucus the stupid cow was talking about, not the primary, you fucking retard, so please kill yourself now." It's more lyrical in the original Greek, in case you're wondering.

Posted by elenchos | September 13, 2008 11:40 AM
9

@2
Obviously reading comprehension was not your strong suit in school. "22 percent of voters said Palin makes them less likely to support Mccain," which indicates these voters had previously (pre-Palin) thought about supporting Mccain. You seem to have missed the part a few sentences above that put palin's favorables at only 49% and unfavorables at 40%. Perhaps you should try reading the post again, maybe sounding out the large and difficult words.

Posted by Sad Comment | September 13, 2008 11:48 AM
10

OMG did you guys see this?

Forum sells "Obama Waffles" with racial stereotype:

http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/2008/09/13/D9360EOO0_obama_waffles/index.html

Fucking disgusting...

Posted by WTF | September 13, 2008 11:49 AM
11

Why is the word Cunt allowed here?

It seems to be used by some of the oh so middle school posters here like a joke.

During the past twenty years of living and working with progressive folk I do not remember ever hearing the work hurled at anybody. It is an utter sexist insult which only reflects on the speaker/poster.

to elenchos, you would be so lucky to have a cunt. Clean up you act, that word bars you from modern culture and discourse in Seattle.

Posted by Ida | September 13, 2008 11:56 AM
12

elenchos -

The results at wikipedia are the caucus results you stupid four-eyed pimple.


sad comment -

if you were asked does S.P. make you more or less likely to support Mccain how would you answer? I've never supported Mc but I would answer she made me less likely to support him, get it. McCain gained something like 13% from down 8 to up 5 by naming Palin - he is retaining his lead - the snip gave no indication that the 22% was an increasing number.

Posted by McG | September 13, 2008 12:08 PM
13

How can she not be popular? She's a hockey mom! A pitbull with lipstick. She had a baby that has something wrong with it! She has a teenager who is knocked up! She has a great hairdo and glasses! She's a Christian! She doesn't have to visit no la-di-da Europe to know what shoe to put on!

SHE'S JUST LIKE US!!!!

Boy, I hope people vote for her. I keep thinking I should register one of these days.

Posted by Wal-Mart Mom | September 13, 2008 12:12 PM
14

February 9 Washington Washington
precinct caucuses
Pledged delegates:
HRC- 31% 26
Obama -68% 52

February 5 Minnesota
caucuses
Pledged delegates: 72
HRC-24 32%
Obama- 48 66%

Posted by McG | September 13, 2008 12:13 PM
15

The Obama ad about Mc Cain not using the net is an attack on a disabled vet.

I saw it last night and think it is horrid. Mc Cains arms and hands are all fucked up - and I suspect he does not keyboard well .. and ... as we all know, a lot of older folks are not glued to the screen like the youngsters, and the older folks vote.

Risky, ill conceived commercial. Not needed, not on any real message, too personal, will chase away older folks and Vets and working and lower class folks who have not invested in high tech gear yet. Computers are far from universal. Bet Mc Cain uses a cell phone quite well.

Bloggers seem to be running the Obama campaign from their worst nature.

The President uses skilled , let's hope brilliant staff and the secure phones and super secret comm. systems. Yahoo isn't on the list.

Posted by Just saying | September 13, 2008 12:14 PM
16

While we're enjoying great moments in pwnage on Slog, let's look back to April for McG's epic fail regarding the four state pledge.

Posted by ru shur | September 13, 2008 12:27 PM
17

Good Morning Charles,
I agree with @1. There's nary a doubt in my mind that Obama has an uphill battle. The campaign COMPLETELY misread the Palin selection. They genuinely believed it to be a much easier race to the White House. Dixie (with the possible exception of VA) is essentially lost to the GOP. Look at the Electoral map. During the past two weeks, I've heard/read terms like "disarray" and "turmoil" describe the Obama campaign. Also, tempests Gustav & Ike don't help either campaign (less coverage) but I believe they helped McCain's campaign more. Remember, there is less of a Bush & Cheney association. Obama's campaign has money trouble too. They didn't accept federal funds. According to the NYT, the GOP has nearly $300 million in the bank. The Dems MUST fundraise. As for the debates, sure Palin pales in comparison to Biden. But, I'd to see Obama against one of his veteran peers in the Senate. I believe the latter much more important than the former. I believe the voters do as well. There are a mere 7 weeks to the election. It's an eternity & a microsecond. This is an extraordinarily close election.

Posted by lark | September 13, 2008 12:28 PM
18

RU - Ok you want to talk about whether MI and FL should be seated and whether the campaigns agreed that they wouldn't count and whether or not one side cheated by running national ads in FL - now that will really help get O elected - god you people are so petty.

The electoral map has O winning MI by only 3% - the state with the worst employment in the country a state that should be in the bag for the dems - in FL Mc has a 5% point lead.

they should have seated the delegates they should have let them campaign there - it was handled in a stupid fashion.

Anyway what to do now?

what is for sure is that posting feel good snips will not help unless it rallies the troops.

RU S what are you doing?


Posted by McG | September 13, 2008 1:10 PM
19

What Palin does for McCain is bring in the religious fringe voters that have been so important to the GOP in past elections. Those guys were unlikely to vote at all before he picked Palin - and now that there is an honest-to-God Christian on the ticket they Will go out to vote. It probably gave him more votes amoung the crazy evangelicals than it lost him in Moderate voters. I really don't think that Palin was brought on board to seduce the Hillary voters - although that would have been a nice bonus. It's the fringe that is getting tired of Republican promises with no delivery that wasn't going to vote Republican this year - and now probably will.

And attacking S.P. only makes the crazies love her more - she is suffering for her faith! She's being attacked by the Godless Liberals and every Right-wing fantasy ever concocted. Yes, she lies through her teeth and wouldn't know the truth if it smacked her in the face - try telling that to the faithful. they don't want to hear it.

With S.P. on the ticket, the crazies are one heartbeat away from getting a consitutional amendment to ban abortion - the holy grail for these nuts. They have one last chance at the apple, so to speak {smirk}.

Posted by Schweighsr | September 13, 2008 1:13 PM
20

#19 - right on - the added bonus for the Rs is to have Obama campaigning against Palin, go figure

Much to his credit, at the convention acceptance speech, Mc Cain outlined a clear restructure in unemployment law to get more re training and not just money for jobs that are not coming back. He said the current system was conceived in the 50's and does not work today, very well put. It was well spoken, easy to understand -- not surprisingly little mentioned by the silly talking heads.

Bet that projected policy plays well in Mich and other rust belt states.

The Dems are fucked on drilling. 78 per cent of the real public, practical and rational, favor some form of increased drilling.

Maybe the Sierrra Club has Obama in a headlock he dare not break? Who is running who?

Posted by Bradley | September 13, 2008 1:32 PM
21

@20 - Recognizing the public reality, Obama has said he's open to a compromise on drilling, but he's rightly maintained that it's not a real long-term solution.

I actually don't give a damn what the public thinks; if a politician is going to let them persist in fairy-tale land, they don't get my vote, R or D. If Obama were to go whole-hog with drilling, he's not really an alternative, is he? On the other hand, he's the only candidate with an actual plan do actually do something about the energy crisis, so it doesn't make sense for him to cave whether or not it costs him the election - the cost of caving is greater.

Posted by David | September 13, 2008 2:14 PM
22

McG: It's funny because you were once again spouting off on topics you know little about.

"Only" winning Michigan by three? Why that's... about what Kerry did in 2004. The past three elections, Dems haven't received much more than 51%. If he can't take the lead at the height of his bounce, he's fucked.

What would help is you and Susan taking your concern troll double-act back to NoQuarter and leave the discussion to the adults.

Posted by ru shur | September 13, 2008 2:15 PM
23

RU Stupid,

PC was right about WA and MN - totally doesn't matter but you and your sock puppet elenchus got that one wrong.

You guys do nothing to help Obama -

and Obama didn't have permission to run ads in FL but he did and yes it would have made more sense to let them in even with the small delegate advantage to HRC.

MI should be much better for O now with the economy in the tank in the US and really bad in MI.

Gore won in FL but O is trailing by 5% - yes Obama was brilliant not to just seat them as the biggest primary vote total results dictated cause he's doing so well there now!

UR Stupid.

Posted by McG | September 13, 2008 2:41 PM
24

Obama can't carry Florida - no matter what.

I lived there for years and it is part of the Old South. The R's have a lot to say in the State and two northern liberals won't cut it.

All the political talk is very interesting but, god, does it get personal.

Posted by Jacksonville Kid | September 13, 2008 3:24 PM
25

@15 Republican Internent Talking Point Shill.

I can't believe anybody has missed it, but this is the talking point the Republicans are paying to get out on the Internet today.

The idea is that we don't know you don't raise your hands above your head to use the Internet and that we don't visit any more than one Internet site ever, so we'll never see this talking point anywhere else.

Can you believe these idiots? Children without arms use the Internet. Stephen Hawking uses the Internet. Grumpy Grampy Insane McCain couldn't use the Internet if his brain was transplanted into Michael Phelps' body.

Yes, idiot Republicans, we CAN use the Internet and, because we can, we know it's vital to have a 21st Century President who can, and we also all have elderly and/or disabled relatives who use the Internet just fine, thanks.

In other words, the INTERNET is exactly the WRONG place to try to make this stupidity work for you, geniuses.

Posted by whatevernevermind | September 13, 2008 3:36 PM
26

Stay tuned for more of unPC/LyingRacistCuntPC's greatest hits tomorrow. I'll choose something more or less at random, in case you're wondering about the methodology.

I only want to add how absurd it is that every day PC lists a dozen bullshit reasons why Obama is a lost cause, and then tacks on a half-assed request to donate time and money to said lost cause. And a few lies about unPC herself working for and donating to Obama. Please. Who are you fooling?

Keep in mind that the Obama policy is to fire anyone who uses unPC's sleazy tactics. If unPC weren't so busy ratfucking for McCain, she sure as hell would never be welcome on Obama's team.

Posted by elenchos | September 13, 2008 4:05 PM
27

Hey elenchus what about the bull you put out about MN and WA - PC or UnPC was right and you were wrong as usual.

Now what works best to win? sit back and say all is good or face the fact that it doesn't look like any sweep by Obama and in fact while you guys were huffin he got caught up with and passed.

Posted by McG | September 13, 2008 4:40 PM
28

To me this is like trying to get McCain or Palin to admit a lie. Every time you nail them, they squirm around and change the context or move the goalposts or just say "POW!!!"

The POW defense is kind of like your lame "b-b-b-but SusanUnPC donates to Obama!" Sure you do, SockpuppetMcGee. Sure you do. As if you would tell the truth about that when all you ever do is lie.

Let me reiterate that people like you would be unceremoniously kicked out of any Obama office for your lies, dirt and general sleaziness. Get it? You're NOT WANTED ON THE TEAM. Get lost.

Posted by elenchos | September 13, 2008 4:51 PM
29

Oh. And "four eyes?" Did you actually say that? You actually did call me "four eyes," didn't you? Jesus.

Posted by elenchos | September 13, 2008 5:35 PM
30

If John McCain can run a BBQ grill to feed burgers and dogs to his base - oops - I mean members of the media, he can type on a freaking keyboard.

I actually didn't think that was a particularly effective line of attack (lots of out-of-touch old people don't know how to use the internets but they are damn good voters), but the gyrations the Republicans are using to try and deal with it could make me think otherwise.

It's gotta be tough being one of the trolls posting lately, though - it looks like those RNC paymasters won't let you deviate from the day's script at all.

If the Keyboard Kommandos had any brains at all they'd probably find the mindless verbatim recitation of the day's talking points pretty dull.

Posted by Mr. X | September 13, 2008 7:21 PM

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