Slog - Comments on "Credit- default swaps indicate there's an 80 percent chance WaMu will default in five years."

Comment by PopTart

PopTart — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:28:00 -0800

Hi Chicken Little, I'm Cassandra. Pay no attention to the men behind the financial curtain, they know what's best. Oh, and never mind the Russian bombers currently in Venezuela.

Comment by Zander

Zander — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:47:21 -0800

While it no doubt sucks for the investors, the situation does bring out my Schadenfreude. All those self important business minds are getting their comeuppence.
You'd think that if they understood their industry this could have been avoided.

Comment by grizzly bear

grizzly bear — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:51:16 -0800

5000+ Seattle metro jobs up in flames from a WaMu implosion is a bad thing.

The shit hasn't hit the fan yet, folks.

Comment by Bellevue Ave

Bellevue Ave — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:57:41 -0800

solve the problem how? like i said earlier, there's not much choice other than letting shit hit the fan and enacting new rules and regs and discontinuing ineffective or unintended consequence laden government policy, or feed a terminal patient more morphine until shit hits the fan.

Comment by Bellevue Ave

Bellevue Ave — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 18:02:41 -0800

also, how many businesses is the government going to "rescue" before the sting of failure doesn't mean anything? or have we already hit that point?

Comment by Jubilation T. Cornball

Jubilation T. Cornball — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 18:29:05 -0800

@5, Moral Hazard, RIP

Comment by MikeSF

MikeSF — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 18:32:11 -0800

@5, I think we may have already hit that point. Nobody likes the destructive side of capitalism, where the weak business die off and the strong businesses thrive. What we have now is "crony capitalism."

Comment by Matt from Denver

Matt from Denver — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 18:32:16 -0800

My wife has worked there 11 years now. She's hoping for a layoff with a nice severance. We'll see if they don't screw her out of it.

Comment by whatever

whatever — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 21:56:21 -0800

a default within five years is bad, sure, but who actually understands what credit-default swaps are? why is that bold? who is supposed to know if it is meaningful that they are predicting this?

Comment by Are markets emotional or rational?

Are markets emotional or rational? — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 22:18:50 -0800

The market is "predicting" this, but the market is driven far more by emotion and FUD than by rationality. Of course, create enough FUD and you can bring about a new reality (see: run on bank), but this 80% failure in 5 years hooey is no better than getting my future predicted by an astrologer.

Comment by Will in Seattle

Will in Seattle — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 22:58:43 -0800

The time to buy stocks is when nobody else thinks they will ever go up.

Here endeth the lesson.