Comments on A Warning on Ohio

Well, since this IS Paul Sexy Stud Man Hackett, how can you argue? I so want Paul to go gay for me just for one night.

Seriously, Obama is probably down by several points across the board in most states. He is on point by mentioning people do not want to appear racist while being polled.

And that is why we are all going to die. America's survival depends on electing a black man to the White House and with our racism I don't see it happening.

Paul Hackett? Who thought he was entitled to a U.S. Senate seat because he's a veteran? Fuck him.

Lies, damned lies and statistics...

Remember those exit polls we're all supposed to ignore on election day? What if (stretch your minds REALLY far now) we in the great unwashed tried to ignore the polls before election day?

Crazy notion, I admit... but it just might work!

@2, it was a House seat you freak. Get your facts before you puke your stupidity out on slog.

Instead of the "Bradley effect," or other euphemisms, could we call this what it is?

Racism.

@4, I wonder if #2 is referring to Hackett's run for the U.S. Senate, which occurred after he lost his U.S. House race to the odious Jean Schmidt. Hackett claims he was courted by the Ohio Democratic establishment to run for the senate seat, but that they then forced him out when Sherrod Brown decided to run. Hackett stomped away mad, but Brown won the primary and the general election.

I've said it before on slog: when folks go into their private booths the results will be 5-10% worse for Obama than the polls.

The Bradley Effect would also provide a perfect made-to-order explanation for why exit polls don't match the election results like happened last time in Ohio when a white Democrat was running.

Oh, wait....

A reasonable argument is that on election day, any Bradley Effect or undecideds moving against Obama when they vote will end up being a wash due to Obama's superior GOTV operations.

@ 5 - because it's not just racism. It's racism combined with the desire to not appear racist. As opposed to '50s-style racism, when a majority of Americans were happy to tell pollsters they would not vote for a qualified black man.

And for whatever it's worth, the Wikipedia link the story says that the Bradley effect didn't hold true in the '06 Congressional elections, and that it's not clear if it held true for Obama during the primaries.

The Bradley Effect (aka Wilder Effect) isn't seen and doesn't even make sense anymore.

http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/bye_bye_wilder.php

Some debunking of "the Bradley effect" by the fine polling/politics site fivethirtyeight.com.

@4,

Read #6. And Hackett did more than his fair share of whining when an actual experienced politician who had more to offer than a war record "stole" his chance. He's an entitled fuckwit, whether he's running for the House or vying for the Senate.

Obama will lose because most Americans are assholes. McCain understands this, which is why he chose Piglips for his VP. "You see America? She's an asshole: JUST LIKE YOU." Obama on the other thinks that a majority of Americans are smart, sensible, informed, compassionate or have some combination of those qualities. He's wrong.

I live in Ohio. If we're so stupid as to vote for the same party election year after election year, then we deserve to go to 50th in job creation. We're 48th, right now. I've got college and after that, I'm escaping and not looking back. Ever.

I don't want to say I told you so...

I lived 17 years in the Cincinnati area. When I lived there Southern Ohio was openly racist. Cincinnati gave us Ken Blackwell, who became Secretary of State and the cesspool of voter problems that followed him. Barack Obama could have a tough time winning the state. Duh. But look, all of us knew when we nominated the guy that it would be a bloody fight to the finish line to get him in office.

I spoke with my grandmother today in Ohio (I am born and raised but live in SEA now) and she lives in Fletcher, OH (pop 500!) and she is voting OBAMA. My mom lives in my home town of Covington, OH and she will also vote OBAMA. Only time will tell but I can tell you I have some hope. Seems to be A LOT of posts on SLOG lately about how bad things look for OBAMA. I think you all are making this election anxiety worse than it should be. Just saying.....think positive people.

#17: I actually thought it would be a slam dunk after 8 years of Bush and the 2006 elections. So naive.

It all depends on if really old people turn out in record numbers or people born after 1960.

If old people do, then lots of racist possibilities - if younger, than not so much.

I love Obama, but crap, all you people had to do was nominate a straight white male--any straight white male--or even a presumably straight white female, and watch them waltz into the White House. How anyone who's ever spent a week in America doesn't know a black man cannot get elected here is just beyond me. It's wrong, it's infuriating, but it's the truth. You have only yourselves to blame.

I love Obama, but crap, all you people had to do was nominate a straight white male--any straight white male--or even a presumably straight white female, and watch them waltz into the White House. How anyone who's ever spent a week in America doesn't know a black man cannot get elected here is just beyond me. It's wrong, it's infuriating, but it's the truth. You have only yourselves to blame.

I'll be ecstatic if I have to eat my words. But I'm sick because know I won't have to.