Slog - Comments on A Warning on Ohio http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio Via Ben Smith: Former Democratic darling Paul Hackett (who knows something about losing in Ohio) says today on DailyKos that Obama is not in a position to win the state: While the polling is close I believe it is far worse than the numbers reflect given social apprehension of middle of the road uncommitted respondents to appear racist by not supporting Obama. There has been much speculation across America regarding this phenomenon and as such can impact the accuracy of polling by at least 5 points. Thus instead of being down in Ohio by 3 or 4 points I would... Copyright 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:00:38 -0800 Sat, 13 Sep 2008 10:38:06 -0800 http://www.movabletype.org/?v=3.34 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Comment by Cato the Younger Younger Well, since this IS Paul Sexy Stud Man Hackett, how can you argue? I so want Paul to go gay for me just for one night.

Seriously, Obama is probably down by several points across the board in most states. He is on point by mentioning people do not want to appear racist while being polled.

And that is why we are all going to die. America's survival depends on electing a black man to the White House and with our racism I don't see it happening.

]]> Cato the Younger Younger http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140487 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140487 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:02:23 -0800 Comment by keshmeshi Paul Hackett? Who thought he was entitled to a U.S. Senate seat because he's a veteran? Fuck him.

]]> keshmeshi http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140495 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140495 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:06:48 -0800 Comment by Chris B Lies, damned lies and statistics...

Remember those exit polls we're all supposed to ignore on election day? What if (stretch your minds REALLY far now) we in the great unwashed tried to ignore the polls before election day?

Crazy notion, I admit... but it just might work!

]]> Chris B http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140499 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140499 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:10:21 -0800 Comment by Cato the Younger Younger @2, it was a House seat you freak. Get your facts before you puke your stupidity out on slog.

]]> Cato the Younger Younger http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140506 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140506 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:15:22 -0800 Comment by Trevor Instead of the "Bradley effect," or other euphemisms, could we call this what it is?

Racism.

]]> Trevor http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140507 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140507 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:15:45 -0800 Comment by LDP in Cincinnati @4, I wonder if #2 is referring to Hackett's run for the U.S. Senate, which occurred after he lost his U.S. House race to the odious Jean Schmidt. Hackett claims he was courted by the Ohio Democratic establishment to run for the senate seat, but that they then forced him out when Sherrod Brown decided to run. Hackett stomped away mad, but Brown won the primary and the general election.

]]> LDP in Cincinnati http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140512 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140512 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:20:14 -0800 Comment by daniel I've said it before on slog: when folks go into their private booths the results will be 5-10% worse for Obama than the polls.

]]> daniel http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140520 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140520 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:24:50 -0800 Comment by flamingbanjo The Bradley Effect would also provide a perfect made-to-order explanation for why exit polls don't match the election results like happened last time in Ohio when a white Democrat was running.

Oh, wait....

]]> flamingbanjo http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140521 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140521 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:24:52 -0800 Comment by Doctor Professor A reasonable argument is that on election day, any Bradley Effect or undecideds moving against Obama when they vote will end up being a wash due to Obama's superior GOTV operations.

]]> Doctor Professor http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140527 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140527 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:32:53 -0800 Comment by UnoriginalAndrew @ 5 - because it's not just racism. It's racism combined with the desire to not appear racist. As opposed to '50s-style racism, when a majority of Americans were happy to tell pollsters they would not vote for a qualified black man.

And for whatever it's worth, the Wikipedia link the story says that the Bradley effect didn't hold true in the '06 Congressional elections, and that it's not clear if it held true for Obama during the primaries.

]]> UnoriginalAndrew http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140529 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140529 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:36:08 -0800 Comment by jrrrl The Bradley Effect (aka Wilder Effect) isn't seen and doesn't even make sense anymore.

http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/bye_bye_wilder.php

]]> jrrrl http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140532 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140532 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:37:26 -0800 Comment by cressona Some debunking of "the Bradley effect" by the fine polling/politics site fivethirtyeight.com.

]]> cressona http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140625 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140625 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 15:42:33 -0800 Comment by keshmeshi @4,

Read #6. And Hackett did more than his fair share of whining when an actual experienced politician who had more to offer than a war record "stole" his chance. He's an entitled fuckwit, whether he's running for the House or vying for the Senate.

]]> keshmeshi http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140630 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140630 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 15:45:04 -0800 Comment by Gurldoggie Obama will lose because most Americans are assholes. McCain understands this, which is why he chose Piglips for his VP. "You see America? She's an asshole: JUST LIKE YOU." Obama on the other thinks that a majority of Americans are smart, sensible, informed, compassionate or have some combination of those qualities. He's wrong.

]]> Gurldoggie http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140644 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140644 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 15:57:38 -0800 Comment by Leslie N. I live in Ohio. If we're so stupid as to vote for the same party election year after election year, then we deserve to go to 50th in job creation. We're 48th, right now. I've got college and after that, I'm escaping and not looking back. Ever.

]]> Leslie N. http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140717 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140717 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:52:03 -0800 Comment by Jubilation T. Cornball I don't want to say I told you so...

]]> Jubilation T. Cornball http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140728 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140728 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:56:18 -0800 Comment by MyDogBen I lived 17 years in the Cincinnati area. When I lived there Southern Ohio was openly racist. Cincinnati gave us Ken Blackwell, who became Secretary of State and the cesspool of voter problems that followed him. Barack Obama could have a tough time winning the state. Duh. But look, all of us knew when we nominated the guy that it would be a bloody fight to the finish line to get him in office.

]]> MyDogBen http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140749 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140749 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 17:18:24 -0800 Comment by bradlesb I spoke with my grandmother today in Ohio (I am born and raised but live in SEA now) and she lives in Fletcher, OH (pop 500!) and she is voting OBAMA. My mom lives in my home town of Covington, OH and she will also vote OBAMA. Only time will tell but I can tell you I have some hope. Seems to be A LOT of posts on SLOG lately about how bad things look for OBAMA. I think you all are making this election anxiety worse than it should be. Just saying.....think positive people.

]]> bradlesb http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140753 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140753 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 17:22:39 -0800 Comment by jrrrl #17: I actually thought it would be a slam dunk after 8 years of Bush and the 2006 elections. So naive.

]]> jrrrl http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140786 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140786 2008 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 18:29:16 -0800 Comment by Will in Seattle It all depends on if really old people turn out in record numbers or people born after 1960.

If old people do, then lots of racist possibilities - if younger, than not so much.

]]> Will in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140933 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140933 2008 Sat, 13 Sep 2008 00:43:17 -0800 Comment by croydonfacelift I love Obama, but crap, all you people had to do was nominate a straight white male--any straight white male--or even a presumably straight white female, and watch them waltz into the White House. How anyone who's ever spent a week in America doesn't know a black man cannot get elected here is just beyond me. It's wrong, it's infuriating, but it's the truth. You have only yourselves to blame.

]]> croydonfacelift http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140987 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140987 2008 Sat, 13 Sep 2008 10:35:20 -0800 Comment by croydonfacelift I love Obama, but crap, all you people had to do was nominate a straight white male--any straight white male--or even a presumably straight white female, and watch them waltz into the White House. How anyone who's ever spent a week in America doesn't know a black man cannot get elected here is just beyond me. It's wrong, it's infuriating, but it's the truth. You have only yourselves to blame.

I'll be ecstatic if I have to eat my words. But I'm sick because know I won't have to.

]]> croydonfacelift http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140990 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/a_warning_on_ohio#c1140990 2008 Sat, 13 Sep 2008 10:38:06 -0800