On that note, any gay Canadians want to get married...?

click on their electoral map

click on the no toss up view, showing this race is about even.

below it they have the list of all the states, starting with the most swingy swing states and then ending up with the states that are most "safe" for either Obama or McCain

He's not "Maverick McCain" because he stomped all over hippies back in the 60's; he's "Maverick McCain" because he's never played ball with the GOP. He's said to have even flirted with the idea of changing sides and become a Democrat. That might make him an admirable, independent-minded politician in some eyes, but it makes him a terrible Republican in the eyes of the GOP.

I think Republican apathy is going to play a big part in this election.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5838

ABC News' Z. Byron Wolf and Jennifer Parker report: As Delaware Sen. Joe Biden was leaving his house in Wilmington this afternoon, he slowed down and said to the gathered news reporters outside his home: "Hey guys, I'm not the guy. See ya." "

"The survey found that 63% of voters have confidence in Obama's ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, while 77% feel that way about McCain."

This is what the worldwide whirlwind goodwill tour produced? Ouch.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Aug19.html

Anyway, just an opinion of mine. I have no fancy numbers of charts to point to.

As for the polls, they have been inaccurate for Obama all along during the primaries - presumably because people don't want to tell pollsters they're too racist to vote for the black guy, or just don't realize it themselves.

FURTHER...the polls now aren't super-accurate for at least two reasons:
1) At this time in 2000 and 2004, Gore and Kerry were ahead, but still lost.
2) About 10% of voters haven't made up their mind. Whoever these clueless and indecisive people are, which team they break is what will matter way more than the 2 or 3 percent of voters who are going back and forth between McCain and Obama

and who the fuck do those polls talk to anyway? I've NEVER been polled and I'm fucking ancient...has ANYONE on here been polled, (pun fully intended) or known anyone who has? And who the hell answers questions posed from a stranger anyway? (or The Stranger, for that matter...) Aren't these PHONE polls? Only an idiot gives out info on the phone. And, do they ever call people who only use CELL PHONES?

I seriously think, that the modern pollster is getting most of their statistical data from 14 year olds and senior citizens...

The Dems, on the other hand, always try and play the middle (and have in-fighting because of it) and end up looking like no nothing, flip-flopping, not hard on any issues, untrustworthy, etc. People can't trust them. AND THEY LOSE.

Dem's need to grow a pair and be a STARK difference to the GOP. They need to embrace all the scary positions and go for it. No middle man, no pandering. Straight up "I am a liberal and I am going to do this". They'd get respect they don't currently have.

But they won't. And I really worry that they'll lose again.

Oh.

Never mind.

Wake me in October when it matters.

It means McCain really is McSame - he's got the same percent as Bush has for Presidential number.

Now, if he had 41 percent, he might have a chance.

Oh well let's all go surfing in Hawaii, nothing to worry about here, oh I know what:

let's pick the VP candidate who DIDN'T get 18 million votes!

Because, you know, Obama would be so weak in the White House, he just couldn't handle those big, strong Clintons.

Fucking brilliant.

Kerry picked his running mate just after July 4th and had his convention.in late July. Those two things tend to help poll numbers.

McCain just had his best month of the campaign and has dick to show for it. Why isn't that the story? He's gone all-out negative and outspent Obama on the ad at an unsustainable pace as he burns through his primary cash. And he's had an opponent off the campaign trail for half the past month.

Post-convention, his hands will be tied by public-financing and people will actually be paying attention. Start worrying then.

Unfortunately I don't think the landline vs cell phone theory applies today. They said the same thing in 2004 about Bush and Kerry and look what happened.