Enviro Gustav, Katrina: Storms of the Century
posted by on August 31 at 11:14 AM
AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD…THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR….AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL. THAT…COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY…SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW. ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT NOW…AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HR…WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR…AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.
Right now, this is what constitutes good news for New Orleans.
Given the projected strengthening—to a category IV hurricane—and the predicted track that will take the storm’s landfall near to New Orleans—where the levees are either weak or uncompleted, and thus totally unequal to the projected huge 10 to 20ft storm surges—this might be it for the crescent city. Again.
There will be no more “shelters of last resort,” that fig leaf expended during Katrina when the rest of us learned astonishing numbers of our fellow Americans have no choice but the last resort. Some of the poorest people in the country—let’s be honest with ourselves, some of the poorest people in North America—are being asked to evacuate, with no resources to do so. Again.
Frankly, this should be exactly why we pay taxes—to help people without any means to follow mandatory evacuation orders. Of course, after eight years of Bush and even longer under Republican dominance, such public assistance will be woefully unequal to the task. Again.
Consider donating to charity. The American Red Cross has started a fund. It’s an ugly way to deal with this, but the only way with which we’ve been left.
The second storm of the century is about to hit New Orleans, the second storm of the century within five years. That should make you wonder.
(More after the jump, or here.)
Storms like Gustav and Katrina used to be once-in-a-century storms. If you’re a civil engineer designing levees to protect New Orleans, you have to consider that a levee only lasts for a few decades before it has to be rebuilt. Should you design for a once-in-a-century storm every few years, or for the more typical storm? Remember, you have a tight budget.
The levees protecting New Orleans were designed for category III storms, not these category IV monsters. The climate changed; the levees haven’t.
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have been increasing. Warmer water means hurricanes become, on average, stronger. While there is plenty of public debate as to why these changes are occurring, there is no credible scientific debate—the addition of carbon to the atmosphere by human beings is contributing to these changes.
So, with all the discussion of the political ramifications of hurricane Gustav, I’m a bit more concerned over what this means for us trying to live on the planet.
Maybe this is just another "signal" that people shouldn't live in flood plains....
Exactly. These people had 3 years to move somewhere else. How many times are they going to be evacuated?
There is plenty of cheap housing and jobs in places like Indianapolis and Omaha. Living in NO is a luxury for the very rich...people who want to be "by the beach" but don't have the cash to fund their pleasures should not expect the rest of us to foot the bill.
The good news is the Bush Administration recently made it so that those living within levees have to have mandatory flood insurance (this includes the Kent Valley Briscoe Meander Levee on the Green River) until such time as they install (expensive) reinforced levees of sufficient durability that they will not breech in storm.
This should elevate real estate costs to their normalized level that includes the hazards of being in a flood plain with minimal protection.
Good points have been made. Building below sea level in regions where coastal flooding can be and often is a problem shows a great lack of common sense. Build below sea level by the sea and expect to get wet.
Backing up what John pointed out, the issue during Katrina wasn't a lack of money. It was incompetent leadership on all ends, in FEMA, in the LA State Government, in the NO Mayor who bungled evacuation, and in a thousand other little ways.
This has nothing really to do with "taxes".
Indeed, John Ballo. Why can't they just eat cake?
NOLA actually got a contract together for buses for 70,000 people who can't evacuate on their own to get them out of the city, and has trains ready for others. In this aspect, they aren't being caught as flat footed, and they've already begun the evacuation of the elderly and the sick.
Hey NT, where do you live?
If you live herein Seattle, or Washington, or Caligornia, or Alaska, or Hawaii, when the big one comes just suffer and die, OK? I am sure your attitude will be "gee we don't have electricity all the hospitals are nonfucntioning 1/4 of the buildings are down and thousands are dying, but we won't be so greedy as to ask for help for out stupidity in living in a well known earthquake zone.
Same if you live where there are fires. Or floods on rivers. Volcanos. Hey let's just carve Cal., the midwest AND New Orleans out of the USA!
Unity. Nation. Who needs that crap, eh?
Um, state, federal and local officals have staged to evacuate and have more than enough capacity to evacuate everyone. NOLA is empty. The coasts are preparing. Everything is going to plan.
This is probably the most wrong blog post I've seen. I usually love the Slog, but this is pussy hand wringing WHEN EVERYTHING IS GOING TO PLAN.
Katrina was a failure. Thankfully our government learns from mistakes.
Gitai--
You are totally right, of course. A much, much better job was done this time.
I'd claim that the combination of avoiding the pretense of any sort of safe shelter within NO, along with the buses and trains hopefully will make a difference.
To John Ballo et al:
Let's say I told you the planet Earth was about to be struck by a series of asteroids.
"Leave the planet, you idiot," I admonish you, "don't you have a rocket?"
Tsk tsking over your smoldering remains, I could say "well, that adjusted real estate prices properly. Why didn't these fools just leave? I gave them an evacuation order!"
If you think that willingness to leave, that exaggerated property values, are the major limiting factors stopping those born into the impoverished neighborhoods of New Orleans from moving to a safer place or better economy, you are beyond salvation in your ignorance.
Wait a second, are you subtly implying that an increase in severe storms is somehow related to man-made climate change? What an irresponsible and insensitive allegation to be making at a time like this! Oh, wait.
There's some sweet quotes to be found from Idaho Republicans crying tears for their dumb redneck constituents when the feds announced, back in the 90's, they'd stop rebuilding their houses in flood plains. It was getting old, putting up the same house ever couple years, with your money. They were seriously on the war path that Bill Clinton was "telling them where to live." Git ma gun! Git ma gun!
But the Spokesman-Review wants $2.95 per article in their archive, and it's not worth it just to prove that Republicans are hypocrites. You knew that already, right?
dangergirl--
Hey, you're right! The government has gotten so much better at evacuating New Orleans. And it only took one failed try, 1500 dead and a hundred billion dollars in damage!
Go Team!
We should do this every few years, just be sure we're still good at it. So much learning to do!
I'm sure on the third try--probably in about four or five years--we'll be even better! Practically genius at evacuating New Orleans. A few of what used to be every hundred year storms per decade should really help us get prepared. It'll be great practice for evacuating Manhattan when it starts to flood!
@2: Exactly. These people had 3 years to move somewhere else. How many times are they going to be evacuated?
More proof, folks, that "compassionate conservatism" is just douchebaggery with a new name.
Do we really want hypocrites like this in control of the country again? Eight IS enough.
Just wanted to let you know that the part about people not having resources to evacuate isn't true. More than 30,000 have been evacuated via bus or train. They started those evacuation on Thursday, and they are ongoing.
I live in Baton Rouge. I can tell you that as of this about half an hour ago, the interstates both east and westboud were viturally empty. Baton Rougeans are staying home, respecting those who are evacuating, and those who are evacuating got out way before it became mandatory.
Also, the shelters this time are further north (Shreveport, Arkansas, Memphis, etc.). Part of the problem with Katrina is that so many people were evacuated to Baton Rouge, but we sustained significant damage ourselves. Nothing like New Orleans, or the coastal parishes in the western part of the state during Rita, but it was bad enough.
People here started preparing early, too. The state is ready this time, and, though it pains me to say it, it seems like the federal government is, too.
@14: I think the debate was more about how people that can barely afford rent should just decide to leave and move elsewhere. Jindal and Bush would be decimated by anything going wrong here with Gustav.
John Bailo, will it be your fault if and when a massive earthquake ruins your fault-line-residing home?
The Katrina disaster could have only happened in NOLA. I have never seen a city with so many corrupt, incompetent politicians and so many ignorant, lazy people.
It's pretty hard to evacuate people who are too stupid or lazy to leave. Happens with every hurricane.
@15 - Be that as it may, it didn't read that way. Granted, now that those folks are out of the city...well, it may be another three years before they can find their way back.
@17 - What an incredibly ignorant comment. Yes, there is corruption in the city and in the state. Guess what? There is corruption in every major city and in every state. And yes, people will again refuse to leave. It isn't laziness. It's stubborness and hardheadness, though.
But I can tell you there are whole lot of people who didn't leave for Betsy, Camille, Andrew, or Katrina, who left this time around.
I wonder if ECB will be posting an argument that the people fleeing the storm danger should walk or ride bikes instead of escaping in cars and buses.
Dude, Golob,
I just took offense to your whining that the state and federal gov weren't doing a good job again, when they very much are. I'm very glad journo's are trying to play hard hitting and questioning preparedness- and being assured again and again that the Gulf Coast is prepared.
So yeah. GO TEAM USA.
Where do I start?
First, John B #2 - there's no fucking beach near New Orleans. Get some fucking geography lessons. Or better yet come visit and learn something about New Orleans.
I am so fucking tired of fucking idiots from elsewhere chiming in with their worthless opinions. New Orleans is here for reasons that are much more important than most of you can apparently comprehend. And since I'm kinda busy here on this end I don't have the time to educate you.
Oh, btw, the state and local governments are rocking right now. Evacuations are going smoothly and what's more impressive is that much larger areas are being evacuated than were during Katrina.
Tornadoes, wind storms, blizzards, ice storms, earth quakes, dust storms - name one place in this country not affected by these things. If you can, my question is why don't you live there?
@19, dude, you forgot evacuating by Zipcar.
John Bailo lives in the shithole known as Kent and is insanely jealous of anyone who lives anywhere cool.
googling for j bailo/john bailo and kent turns up this:
http://www.texeme.com/
check out more moronic commentary from John Bailo of Kent, Washington here!
"Should you design for a once-in-a-century storm every few years, or for the more typical storm?"
I hope that you will reflect on this sentence at some point and realize exactly how little sense it makes.
"And so many of the people in the arena here, you know, were underprivileged anyway," she said, "so this is working very well for them."
"What I'm hearing, which is sort of scary, is they all want to stay in Texas..."
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The money spent to "rebuild" the Gulf Coast should have been put toward relocating those citizens to another area that is not below sea level. How many times does nature need to teach us this lesson. That entire area should never have been built on in the first place, let alone billions spent to rebuild it. Absolutely nothing makes sense about building below sea level. If extensive damage occurs again with Gustav, the American public should put their foot down regarding their tax dollars being spent on this literally sinking ship.
To Chris and others from New Orleans:
Good luck, people. Hang in there. We'll be thinking about you and wishing you safety in the storm.
@29,
It reminds me of FDR's decision to support the residents of the Dust Bowl. He gave them more money to stay than to leave. That land is completely worthless. It was briefly fertile due to an unusual wet period at the beginning of the century, but, over the long term, only buffalo can survive on that land. Once the Oglalla aquifer runs out, the people who stayed, and their descendants, will be up shit creek.
If New Orleans is decimated again, the government should give huge handouts to people who are willing to leave. If any rebuilding occurs, it should be exclusively privately funded.
To all suggesting that New Orleans ought to be abandoned to save money: you are ignorant and wrong.
Thank you for providing the link. I'd been meaning to donate to the RC.
As a current coastal resident, I can say that things are definitely proceeding much smoother than they did three years ago. The truly coastal homes have been evaced and lots of others have as well. As a medical student, I'm expected to remain for clinical duties, so I'm riding it out as best I can. Depending on the track of the storm, I'm either holing up in my Inner Refuge (aka the bathroom) or the morgue (probably the only option that's worse).
The evacuation plans have run efficiently and thoroughly. Those that have remained seem to be well-provisioned and cognizant of the risks and the coming difficulties. Here's hoping things go better this time around.
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