Comments on Don't Panic Yet, Dan. Obama Still Leads Where it Counts

Sadly, I expect it will be the other way around: Obama will win a majority of the popular vote with huge victory margins in urban areas, while losing the electoral vote down the same state lines as usual.

And I predict a McGovern esque blowout. 60% of America considers itself conservative. Obama hasn't a snowballs chance in hell.

Jesus Christ, settle down, everyone. It's going to be fine.

And I predict a McGovern esque blowout. 60% of America considers itself conservative. Obama hasn't a snowballs chance in hell.

Follow the link and you will see the poster is insane or delusional:

the site has a model showing Obama winning 285 to 252 in the electoral vote, essentially by picking up NM and CO.

That sucks. That's not great. That's a razor thin margin so as IU've been saying and most folks have been saying this thing is dead even.

Then the site says the popular vote is likely to be one where Obama wins it by 0.8 of a percent.

That sucks.

Then the site says this:

"Besides all that, we also have a number of state polls today which generally look pretty decent for Obama."

Then there's a table showing as follows: Fl McCain by four that sucks.
NC MCCain by 3 that sucks.
OH Obama by one that sucks.
PA Obama by seven that's fine and no surprise.
Texas McCain by ten.

So it's "pretty decent" If Obama loses FLorida NC is tied in Ohio loses TX and wins Pa?

"pretty decent"?? I guess it's pretty fucking decent for McCain, too.

Then the site says
"Yep, Quinnipiac released its "big three" swing state polling this morning. The results are literally identical to last month in Pennsylvania, where Obama leads by the same 49-42 margin, and essentially identical in Ohio, where Obama's lead is down from 2 points to 1 (although with undecided and Bob Barr improving). The difference is in Florida, which swung from a 2-point Obama lead to a 4-point deficit."

Wow's that's "pretty decent" huh Obama ONLY DROPPED IN TWO OF THE THREE STATES CITED and only fucking lost Florida!
Pretty decent.

What. The. Fuck.???

gulp. gulp. gulp. gulp.

Truth:
IT's an even race, that sucks, it's not what we were promised, it's because of Obama's flaws and limitations, some Obama folks are in denial, and some Obama folks like Herbert in NYT today realize that when Obama is even in the polls he's actually behind 3 points.

PC, if you're so worried about it, get off your ass and go campaign in a battleground state. See you there!

"Follow the link and you will see the poster is insane or delusional:"

PC - Insane or delusional? I think you're projecting.

Does Do Not Call List affect telephone polls? If so, I'd be inclined to think (ok, hope) that it skews poll samples towards suburbs and further out from urban cores, where Dems do much better -- but people are also more likely to know about and be on the do not call list.

Oh and PC - BTW - All the polls that I saw during the primary showed that Hillary was weaker running against McCain than Obama. If you think she would be doing any better than Obama you're fucking dillusional, really there's no evidence either way, you're just being reactionary.

Really the main thing hurting Obama are the Hillary people that are Jaded and feel like she is owed this, she is owed nothing. It's a fucking primary. She has created this weakness and then you try to point to that weakness as evidence for her case.

Back the Democratic nominee or get the fuck out of the way!

You guys -- 80% of America is only starting to get into this race and decide now. The election is months away. No election is decided in August; it's decided in early November. Most people don't know the VP. Half of these Hillary dead-enders think that John McCain is pro-choice.

America isn't known for voting on information to begin with, but right now there's basically no information out there. So naturally, the country is collectively ambivalent.

If it's still a dead heat in 30 days, then we might have something to worry about.

I had a nightmare last night that Obama won the popular vote in every single state but the Electoral College still gave the Presidency to McCain.

Someone tell me this is impossible.

Did you know the exemplary FiveThirtyEight.com offers a numerical estimate of Obama's chances of winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote?

Do you know what that number is?

I'm hopeful, but I think that everyone underestimates the racism in this country. I'm from Boston, and I can tell you for sure that all those white Irish guys from Southy ain't gonna vote for no black guy.

And that's in MASSACHUSETTS.

As I said in my Fremont democratic caucus (aka circle j*rk) - the thing that most liberals forget (including myself) is that NOT EVERYONE THINKS LIKE YOU.

And then there's these idiot Clinton supporters. I guess they would prefer McCain.

@13, I'm from Boston, too, and I can't help but notice that Barack Obama's friend Deval Patrick is currently the Governor of Massachusetts. Governor Patrick, the first black man to be elected to the office in Massachusetts (who also, by the way, worked in the Clinton administration), won by a wide enough margin to carry in a supermajority of Democrats to the MS State House on his coat-tails in 2006.

Other than that, great point.

typo - s.b. "MA State House" -- would have been weird if he had that effect on MS voting

once again, electoral-vote dot com for the win. More data than you can shake a stick at and daily updates. Run by a famous democrat abroad computer scientist.