And so we now descend to mudslinging and partisan attacks. I guess it still works, Karl.
When he fucking STUPID, STUPID, STUPID-ly caved on the fucking offshore fucking drilling fucking bullshit. That was the dumbest fucking stupid fucking thing the Dems have done all year. By saying "Ok let's do SOME of it." they conceded the argument to the GOP. They should have stuck to the "They already have tons of area available to drill!" argument. Idiots.
John McCain...is seen as a stronger manager of the economy
Need we any more evidence that Americans are TOO FUCKING STUPID to deserve a vote? They think this old, confused, filthy fucking rich old codger is better for the economy?
Fuck Seattle, I'm moving to Canada. I can't take it anymore!
It's frickin August.
Wake me in October.
But I can't take another lost election! This should be easy! I'm going to crawl under my desk and cry now.
Buck up Dan! The polls are sorta all over the place. McCain spent tons of money on his "Celebrity" attack ads, while Obama chose to play rope-a-dope and be invisible for awhile. There is waaaay too much of a campaign left to get all panicky about a Zogby (read, spectacularly unreliable) poll.
Remember that e-mail I sent when he became the nom? Yeah. I was right. Sigh. I always am.
Obama/Hillary. Total win.
Much agreed. ::brushes up on French::
@7: Shut the fuck up you cretin.
Oh Canada, PLEASE annex Western Washington.
Dan, at this point in 2004, Kerry was leading Bush in most polls. If anything, McCain is the Kerry here.
You said it yourself: American's like our politicians to be a little vicious and Obama has been defending himself but he hasn't wanted to fight back. If he wants to win he had better grow a pair and attack McCain.
That and the fact the liberal 527's haven't run any ads attacking McCain is fucking killing him right now. (WHERE is MoveOn.org now?!?!?)
And for you Hillary hold outs? If McCain does win, it will be VERY hard for the Democrats to bounce back in 2012, first the economy will probably have recovered so the Dems will not have that to run on. (Even if just a percieved recovery) Then if McCain draws down enough troops from Iraq (and that would be the smart move for him if he wins) well, even Hillary is screwed at her chances.
A McCain win will be almost a death blow for the Democratic Party on the national level.
Bitter? Maybe if you weren't busy sucking Obama's balls and licking his musky anus you would have seen something like this happening. Be sure to blame everyone else. You always do.
@13 - Moveon ads? Are you serious? No! No! Keep Moveon away, for God's sake! Seriously, can you point to a campaign they've thrown their weight into that has won? This is the organization that thought buying a full-page ad to bash the Gallup poll was a good investment.
@14: No, Obama will still win, he (and the rest of the party) are just making it a lot harder than it needs to be. Your response was just a completely useless exercise in public self-congratulation, and nobody even knows who the fuck your stupid ass is, so your post is like triple fucking retarded.
Anyone who has been watching the distance running events in the Olympics knows exactly what Obama is doing. He is staying just behind McCain, because he knows that he can smoke him in the last lap. Just wait until after the convention.
Anthony Hecht knows who I am. He knows who EVERYONE is.
And fuck you, Dave M. Your penis is small and your momma is fat. BURN!
Margin of Error? +/- 3.5% So McCain is up by 1.5 points...maybe.
Also, read the questions that this poll was based on. Very leading and negative to Obama. The polling sample was less then 1,100 registered voters. Not a bad sample, but not really a great poll either. Relax.
C'mon kids, let's get through the conventions first - formalities though they may be - before we all start updating our passports and brushing up on our "lingua Canadien".
McCain has been spending money at a furious rate just to get this much of a bump, meanwhile Obama is raking in about 60% more in donations on average, and still has a lot of that left in the bank.
I fully expect to see his campaign start spending some of that immediately AFTER the conventions - why spend $$ when the networks will give him oodles of FREE publicity?
Daily Kos says calm down:
Let's not get our britches in a twist just yet.
Sorry 14, but 16 is spot on!
The "Loopy" Zogby Polls
a mccain supporter in the office printed this poll out for me this morning...
my faith in humanity is slowly burning out.
You cite the polling, Dan, and then suddenly lay the blame at Obama's feet without explanation. I'm not disputing or agreeing--just asking how or what Obama has done that has morphed him in John Kerry?
Or are you just saying he's Kerry because he's sliding in the polls?
Explain please. Use extra sheets if necessary.
Dan it is a Zogby poll. Zogby is the least reliable pollster working today. ALL other pollsters still have McCain down.
@18....I know who you are....your style is very easy to spot.
Like I said, Obama has no one to blame for this other than himself. He stopped being and doing the things that made him popular to capture the center and lost a whole lot of support doing it.
Once he caved on FISA he lost me and with a host of other stupid decisions it is obvious that he has lost many others as well.
Ok, now commence in attacking me and the other people who have watched Obama move away from the things he said he stood for while he continues to sink like a rock.
If he loses this election, will you still think he can do no wrong?
The liberal 527s are all broke because Obama demanded that contributions go directly to his campaign rather than to outside groups. MoveOn.org closed their 527 earlier this year. I'm not saying that's good or bad, but that's where they are now.
As I have said before, the Dem's have tried to placate the middle; something they have been doing for a long time since they don't want to appear too "socialist". This is their problem. They try and appease the middle and then look like they don't take a strong stance.
Dem's need to learn from the GOP, they need rally the base by being over the top Left Wing. This has worked for the GOP and WILL work for the Dem's. The need to strongly say why their policies are better for the American people and that the "middle man" thing is bullshit. They need to say "this ship is going the wrong way, we can't just 'adjust the steersing' we need to turn it around". They need to show backbone and strength.
And they don't. EVER. And that is why we have tight races with the GOP, and that is why we lose. Don't blame America, blame the bad tactics of the Democrats.
The "wait til October" crowd is right, but it still makes me nuts that Obama isn't ahead by 70 points right now.
The fact that McCain is seen as the better manager of the economy in this poll, and in no others, is good news -- it means Zogby either over-polled or over-weighted a lot of Republican dead-enders, and makes the overall results more suspect in context.
NO you goddamn morons, WE CAN'T WAIT UNTIL OCTOBER. ARE YOU NUTS?!?!?!
Goddamnit. I was out of this country during the 2004 election, and from overseas I couldn't understand why Kerry lost.
Now I get it. You all think Obama can make up lost ground in 30 days?!?!?! Are you joking me??????? He needs to get a substanial lead by the end of September, and then keep it. I swear Will in Seattle...I love you but this is some serious business. We can't waste one second.
So, Johnny, you're sticking to your ideology, and either voting for someone other than Obama or not voting for anyone for President? Explain.
@33, I TOTALLY agree with you. This is called a fight to November 4 and you have to fight EVERY day; not just in October.
And again, if Obama does not win, enjoy not four but EIGHT years of more GOP rule in the White House. (Sorry, but it is nearly impossilbe to out a sitting President and if McCain does not survive his first term his VP will get the "sympathy" vote that will carry him on to an election win of his own, (see Johnson 1964, Truman 1948, Coolidge 1924, Teddy Roosevelt 1904).
And how do you think we would bode with a President Jindal?
Those who deny the downward trend are simply delusional, what me worry types.
HEre's what Obama has done to create this downward trend.
1. No unity with HRC folks. There is a segment, some polls say 25%, who aren't buying into Obama campaign. You can rant about this and be pissed about this and think they're all a bunch of racists, or think she's penis-less bitch while Barack's caucus is bigger, you can be more logical (like me) and try to tell them it's in there interest to vote for OBama but guess what:
it ain't working.
What would work: make HRC VP. Duh. 18 million votes, strong on economy, obviously prepared to debate and to be pres and she's not offered VP? And the theme is unity?
What a stupid move.
2. He took a vacation in Hawaii. WTF? Arrogant.
3. He needs to sharpen up that economic attack/framing and tell Wallmart shoppers in ten words or less how he will improve their lives.
I hear he's running sharp economic ads in key states. Great! But at the national level the MSM is all a twitter about VP selections and ohbygod he said "he" today that means blah blah this means he is not
controlling his message or framing the debate to get more votes right now.
Shoulda made those economic ads the whole national conversation.
4. HE's doing good stuff with voter reg. to chagne how things turn out in GA VA NC etc. but why not even more?
Where's the big move to take all us supporters here in Washington on a freedom ride to GA? or at least NV? to register voters?
Where's the pictures of black and white volunteers in Georgia harmoniously organizing to register voters?
He seems to be ignoring many states like Arkansas where the demo party is pleading, pleading with him to come visit and set up an office. He needs to reach both the black voters in these southern states and the white voters and if he picks a Biden or a Kaine or a Birch Evans Bayh III or Sebelius it doesn't really help all that much.
Gee, who got the white voters in the primaries -- wouldn't want to pick her -- after all, she didn't vote for OBama in the primaries nor hid her followers -- who would want their votes, they're a buncha disgusting dogpatchers and rednecks. They have mullets, they're fat, they have pit bulls, they aren't college educated, they're dumb and stupid. They're trailer park trash. "Let's try to win the election without them!"
Fucking brilliant. They plus the HRC holdouts are the votes we need. I don't want a little 2% victory either btw we should gbe having a huge seeping change election victory and the Obama team is doing what Kerry and all the other Democratic losers have done:
-fail to connect on economic issues with Archie Bunkers in the north and midwest
-fail to connect on economic issues with dogpatchers and trailer park whites in the south
a/k/a swing voters. The failure to connect does seem to come from a coastal, cultural elitism and disconnect that the GOP explits with its wedge politics.
It's very simple, really. It's the same pattern by which the GOP has won presidential elections since 1968.
...And once we've all finished wringing our hands about this poll, then we have to get off our asses and do something to get this man elected. Give money, volunteer, canvass, phonebank, or just talk to your undecided or independent-voting friends and family.
WE must act, and act now.
WE have to make this happen.
OM put it best @30. Unfortunately the collective wail of fear from all the hand-wringers in the Democratic party whenever a cadidate takes a stand on a progressive issue overwhelms, and we're left with a candidate who is neither inspiring, progressive, or creative. All we're left with is a shell of a person who sounds an awful lot like the Republican he's supposed to be trying to beat. When your goal is to emulate the other side, it shouldn't be surprising that people choose the genuine article.
uh, can you guys refrain from panicking everytime the polls change to the slightest degree. It's AUGUST, pre-convention.
Also, I don't believe that "undecided" voters have much sway. I mean, in reality, how many actual people sit in their little houses and ponder on the strengths and minuses of each presidential nominee? About 12, I'm guessing.
A third of the country are hardcore Dems/Liberals. A third of the country are hardcore Repubs/Conservatives. The middle third are the "sometimes" voters, who if they're charged up about something, will actually get their asses off the couch to vote; they're probably pretty much split 50/50 whether they're Dems or Repubs. What really determines elections, is how keyed up those lazy voters are and which ones get their butts to the polls to vote. Of course the problem this year is that you have a huge number of young people and minorities charged up for Obama, but you also have a lot of racists who'll vote to keep the black guy from winning...
!!!!! ;-) !!!!!
where can we see state by state, electoral college predicting polls? Are there any, or do the polls already weigh their results according to electoral votes per state? I'm a statistical dum dum.
oh, and there's a complete moratorium on "Oh No! If the Republicans Win, I'm Moving to Canada/the Netherlands/Cloud CuckooLand"
That's some tired, cliche ridden bullshit.
And NONE of you ever do it...
Did I really see the word "musky" @14?
So, who is i love meeee, @40 and elsewhere? Chelsea Alvarez-Bell? Poe?
When did Barack Obama morph into John Kerry in skinnier ties? It happened over the last several years, when liberals sat around and did nothing (or actively participated) while the mainstream press trashed one major Democrat after another. If you don't think that the sustained, baseless character attacks on Gore, Dean, Kerry -- and, yes, on Bill and Hillary Clinton during and since the primary -- have had any effect on Obama's electability now, you are naive.
Check out Maureen Dowd's column today! Obama is now a "glib pretty boy," "skinny," and "twig legs." Of course, in her weird fantasy, she puts these words in Hillary's mouth, so liberals (who have been letting her get away with this sort of thing for years) can get satisfaction from pretending this is just a hilarious commentary on what a vile racist Hillary is.
Chelsea Alvarez-Bell. The "!!!'s" didn't give it away?
Just take a look at the caliber of insults @18. That's all the info you need.
You'd have to know nothing about economics-- absolutely nothing-- to believe that McCain will manage the American or global economy well. You'd probably have to be unaware of what dire straights we're in right now.
You all think Obama can make up lost ground in 30 days?!?!?!
Why not? McCain just did, if you believe this poll.
For fuckssake, the guy's been on vacation for a little bit, the convention is coming, the VP announcement is coming, more debates are coming, and it's an eternity from here to November. There was no way Obama, or any candidate, could have sustained the momentum he had indefinitely. His team is just conserving their capital right now.
good grief. the entire country (planet?) has spent the better part of the past 2 years under the assumption that our next president will be a democrat. one poll fluctuates, showing mccain with a marginal lead, and people lose their shit.
calm the fuck down, people. it's just one poll. and it's august.
We are recruiting guerrilla operatives to infiltrate the West as we speak.
24 40 or Fight!
#28 (I stopped reading at you):
I agree with you completely, but you forgot to call yourself a racist for criticizing Obama. I'm sure some of the #29 - #51 losers have probaly already done that. Remember: if we're not for Obama, we're racist f*cking pigs.
For those of you that voted for Obama, you deserve the President McCain your gonna get. And I will leave the Democratic Party; I'm embarrassed to be associated any more.
ok, don't wait till October.
Stop posting on SLOG and go register voters in Seattle.
And urban cities in Montana.
And Eugene and Portland.
Or, start flirting with Canadians.
Gallup's tracking poll still gives Obama a slight lead.
i spent the last week watching Fox News at my parent's (mom wouldn't turn it off). americans are feeble minded chickenshits who can be manipulated by the simplest logical fallacy. the education level of the majority of americans is beyond pitiful.
@TSM: I don't care that it is October. The sheer fact that people are saying "don't worry, don't worry" Worries me.
This is not a slam dunk. We have to work everyday. I send my family emails about why Obama is better than McCain EVERYDAY. As much as possible to get them to change their mind. I email my friends in Florida and Ohio. I post myspace bulletins and blog posts. I am trying. We can't give way one minute. Not one single minute.
i was more afraid when Obama said "Israel is a friend of Israel" which seemed like he is just a Bush in disguise.
Big surprise. Didn't listen about who was the better candidate, now his supporters better fucking deliver.
If McCain wins, I'm moving back to Canada. I'll be taking applications for a husband to move with me--it'll get you into the country easier than trying to immigrate on your own. Applications accepted; references on request.
I came to state the outrageous inaccuracy of Zogby polls, and I'm very glad to see I've been beaten to it many times over.
I observed it in the last presidential campaign. I consider polls useless as anything other than a very general indicator. As such, Gallup would always manage to be reasonably reliable, but Zogby was always spectacularly, stratospherically off base. Like, not just off by some margin of error, but "Where the fuck are you pulling your data from?" wrong.
I'm surprised anyone bothers referencing Zogby anymore. I'd trust a Fox News poll before I'd trust Zogby.
When exactly did Barack Obama morph into John Kerry in skinnier ties?
When he hired the same shitty Democrat advisors that Gore and Kerry hired, which gave him the same shitty futile advice and ran the same shitty futile campaign they've been running for candidates the last 8 years.
Talking about change doesn't mean shit when you surround yourself with people who have you run your campaign with the exact same bullshit that didn't work in 2000 and 2004.
Fuck, you scared me for a minute. Then I read that it was a Zogby poll, the same one that predicted a massive win for Obama in NH, and various other massive travesties. Damn, Dan, gimme a break.
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