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Monday, July 28, 2008

Here Comes the Bounce?

posted by on July 28 at 10:45 AM

One of the big political questions last week was why Barack Obama wasn’t seeing any bounce in the polls from his well-covered (and well-received) world tour. My feeling at the time was that people were being impatient. The impact of something like the Obama trip, which voters can only really evaluate once it’s over, probably takes a few days to show up in tracking polls. And behold


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Who are the inbreds that make up McCain's 40%?

Posted by Andrew | July 28, 2008 11:01 AM

I had been wondering the exact same thing. Thanks for the post!

Posted by Big Sven | July 28, 2008 11:02 AM

Thanks, Eli, for today's good news.

I think people needed to process the Berlin imagery and the Frank Rich-esque thoughts percolate. Now it's coffee :-)

Posted by Jubilation T. Cornball | July 28, 2008 11:07 AM

those polls seem to be fluctuationing within the margin of error.

Posted by mickey in AR | July 28, 2008 11:09 AM

@4 almost has it. Just replace "seem to be" with "are".

The margin of error is 2%. So, all those "45"s could be "47"s and that last "49" could be a "47" as well.

It's a mathematical theorem:

Posted by jebus h. xst | July 28, 2008 11:25 AM

I thought we were down to 21 percent deadenders ... does this mean there are another 19 percent who are racists and just plain stupid?

Posted by Will in Seattle | July 28, 2008 11:26 AM

Remember that at this point in the race both Kerry and Gore and a solid 10+ point lead over Bush in the past two elections...

Things are not looking good for Obama...

Posted by You_Gotta_Be_Kidding_Me | July 28, 2008 11:41 AM

We won't support spine-less NO-Bama and will re-defeat him in November!!!

Posted by clintonsarmy | July 28, 2008 11:54 AM


Posted by clintonssarmy | July 28, 2008 12:15 PM

Yeah, but remember Gore actually won before the Supremes intervened on Bush's behalf.

Posted by Sad Comment | July 28, 2008 12:18 PM

The McCain campaign is in a good position right now. They don't want to peak too early.

Posted by raindrop | July 28, 2008 12:24 PM

You_Gotta_Be_Kidding_Me @7: Remember that at this point in the race both Kerry and Gore and a solid 10+ point lead over Bush in the past two elections...

You care to cite a source regarding Kerry/Bush 2004?

Here's what I could find from about this time four years ago:
August 1 story: Bush 50-Kerry 47 in CNN/USAT/Gallup poll.
July 26 story: Bush 49-Kerry 48 in ABC News/WaPo poll.
July 19 release: Kerry 45-Bush 44 in Marist poll.

Posted by cressona | July 28, 2008 12:42 PM

This bump is clearly more than the margin of error. That said there is no reason for complacency ever. Other Demo candidates have seen 17 point leads go bye-bye.

Obama's campaign skills and team are doing great. McCain is doing lousy. The complete meltdown of the economy is the driving force. But even with that, Obama only now is approaching 50% in the polls; we need to stay on course to get him well above that mark to be sure of victory.

And even that's not enough to produce change.

Go read that article in the NYT about the Senate "hold" device -- one senator gets to block anything he wants anytime.

We need to change the stupied senate rules about holds and cloture and all that crap to get anything passed, we need 60 Demo senators, we need Obama to win and win and win some more states in the electoral college to totally blow apart the GOP.

if you want that wholesale change that is.

Posted by PC | July 28, 2008 1:09 PM

#11 wins for funniest comment of the day.

Posted by keshmeshi | July 28, 2008 1:49 PM

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