2008 Clinton Wins Pennsylvania
posted by on April 22 at 20:15 PM
Earlier: The polls are closed in Pennsylvania and, The Page says, the race is currently too close to call.
If it remains this close all night, then a lot more people will be sending Hillary Clinton breakup letters. But there’s no reason to think it’s going to remain this close. The earliest returns are almost always way off.
UPDATE: Get comfy:
Suburban Montgomery County won’t have its results until at least 10 p.m. [EST], we just learned from election officials. This is crucial because Montgomery is the third biggest county in the state, and results will be meaningless without Montgomery, which is perceived as tilting toward Mr. Obama.
5:30 p.m. CNN has the exit polls. Clinton won the white vote in every age bracket except for the 18 - 29 year old bracket, which she split evenly with Obama. Voters with more education continued to support Obama at higher levels than less educated voters. Gun owners strongly favored Clinton. Urban voters strongly favored Obama.
Voters who said the economy was their most important issue (55 percent) picked Clinton, voters who said Iraq was their most important issue (28 percent) picked Obama, and voters who said health care was their most important issue (14 percent) picked Clinton.
The black vote is sky-high for Obama and easier to see in the negative: Only four percent of black men voted for Clinton, and only 11 percent of black women voted for her. A majority of white men and women voted for Clinton, but the margins are not nearly as lopsided as with the black vote.
5:50 p.m. Maybe not that long a night after all. MSNBC says that Clinton has won PA. The question, of course, is: By how much?
6:05 p.m. The early spin from the Clinton camp, via Ben Smith:
Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee at the Park Hyatt in Philadelphia tells reporters:“There’s beginning to be a subtle shift of psychology of a lot of the uncommitted supers,” Elleithee said. “[They] are beginning to wonder why Obama has been unable to win these thing despite all the advantages he has,” Elleithee said.
“There’s a lot of questions that are beginning to surface about him,” he said, while superdelegates are learning that “every time she’s got her back up against the wall, she delivers.”
6:30 p.m. So what’s that margin of victory? Right now, with only 16 percent of precincts reporting, it’s 6 percent.
6:47 p.m. NPR puts Clinton’s victory margin at 8 percent with about 35 percent of precincts reporting. That’s right in the “gray area,” the radio network says, in terms of Clinton claiming a decisive, meaningful victory.
7:07 p.m. Clinton to speak soon in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, with 45 percent of the precincts reporting she’s still at 8 percent.
7:13 p.m. Clinton, about to speak, enters to Tom Petty’s “Won’t Back Down”…
The crowd goes wild, chanting “Yes she will” as Clinton thanks Pennsylvania and casts herself as the champion of common folk and pocketbook issues. She speaks of gas prices, the economy, and the mortgage crisis—and of waitresses, police officers, and small business owners.
And then she makes a very plain appeal for money. Clinton was heavily outspent by Obama in Pennsylvania and the talking heads are saying she doesn’t have much money left to compete with him in upcoming states.
“We can only keep winning if we can keep competing with an opponent who outspends us so massively,” Clinton says, and then asks people to go to her web site and donate immediately.
Nevertheless, “the tide is turning,” she says.
“Some people counted me out and said to drop out, but the American people don’t quit and they deserve a president who doesn’t quit either… I might stumble and I might get knocked down but as long as you’ll stand with me I’ll get right back up.”
7:45 p.m. Now Obama’s up, with John Mellencamp in the audience and the song “Small Town” playing as he comes on stage…
Obama begins by congratulating Clinton and thanking his supporters. He then says of Pennsylvania:
“There were a lot of folks who didn’t think we could make this a race when it started. Who thought we were going to be blown out… Six weeks later, we closed the gap. We rallied people of every age, and race, and background to the cause. And whether they were inspired for the first time, or the first time in a long time, we registered a record number of voters. And those are the voters that will lead our party to victory in November.”
And then he pivots into a stump speech tailored to Indiana, which votes on May 6. He’s moving on.
8:15 p.m. With about 90 percent of the precincts reporting, Clinton has risen to a 10-point lead. That’s the margin that “conventional wisdom” had been saying she needed for a convincing win—convincing meaning that the chattering classes will now be convinced to give her the benefit of the doubt at least until North Carolina and Indiana vote.
8:30 p.m. That’s all for me folks. I’m off to a previously scheduled, non-political engagement. But keep it churning in the comments. I’m sure there will be more to say—if not about the results, then about the way they’re being spun—before the night is over.
Thank God.
I'd like to thank all my peeps in Pottstown, and everyone my Aunt Betty Affleck taught in Philadelphia, for voting for Obama.
Including the gang members. Every vote counts!
don't say race.
cnn exit poll gives clinon a 4 point lead. sucks to be clinton
We'll all be up at 10pm EST...Yay PST!
FOX, NBC, etc. call it. Hillary wins
She'll win by 12% to 14%.
Dangit. I can't put up with having to listen to that bitch for four years.
Hurray! Nice to see that some people still aren't caving in to the Obama propaganda machine.
Let the whining begin. (Er...resume.)
"Why won't she drop oouuuuttt!!!" Wah!
This is almost as bad as watching Bush win in '04. Watching the debates, I thought "There's no way that people will vote for Bush again after having seen what a dipshit he is for four years". But sure enough. And here we go again. Way to go America! I guess you deserve what you get.
“every time she’s got her back up against the wall, she delivers.”
thats because she gets to cherry pick the races the media focus on like Ohio and Penn. and ignore the results that are inconvenient for her.
And you know whose fault this is? Rush fucking Limbaugh. There was no Republican primary, so he sent out all of his dipshit "dittoheads" to fuck up the Democratic primary.
Ya Voodoo they should have focused on Idaho, North Dakota, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Montana, Utah, Nebraska, Vermont...
I just can't believe, that as a country, this is the best we can do. 8 FUCKING YEARS of Bush. Now the rest of the world thinks we're a bunch of dumbasses. And now this. Out of all the smart and talented people in this country, the wife of a somewhat successful past president is the best we can do for our fucking leader? This is total bullshit. Nice work, America.
Are you guys ready to join me in voting for a winner? These candidates have thoroughly divided your party. heh
Υοθ πεοπλε σεεμ το ηαωε α ηολε ιν υοθρ λιφε τηατ υοθ'ρε τρυινγ το φιλλ.
Why the lament from the Obama supporters? After all, he's still going to win the race for pledged delegates, Clinton can't beat Obama in terms of number of states won, and she's unlikely to beat him in terms of popular vote. If the party upsets the will of the people we will likely see the Democrats implode for this election cycle.
I won't vote for Clinton if the party hands her the nomination despite his democratic win in the primary season.
I am laughing. So. Hard.
Good lord the MSM talking heads are beyond apoplectic over this contest. They've had six weeks to work themselves into a frenzy and now their heads seem ready to spin off at the early results. I honestly don't know how much longer I can take this blather. Oh yeah, *click*.
Let's see, he can't win Pennsylvania, and he can't win Ohio, and he can't win New York, and he can't win California, and he can't win Massachusetts. Oh, yeah, forgot Texas, he can't win there either. Great candidate you've got there.
@16 Exactly - don't buy into the Clinton spin that this marks a "subtle shift" back to her favor. She was leading in Penn by 20 or more points just a few weeks ago. A win of less than 10% is more like a continuation of the steady progress that Obama has made in former Clinton strongholds. Obama has also forced her to spend herself into the ground, hampering her efforts in future primaries.
And Poe, what's so funny? The fact that she's winning by less than half of her former lead percentage?
just when i had really gotten sick of her.
Wouldn't it be great if Hill just quit with a win and some class?
But that's why she's not a great candidate. She just grinds and grinds and hopes her competition fucks up. Like the German national football team. Dull, sometimes effective but rarely inspiring.
I'm not hoping for too much. But we can make lemonade and hope that Hils sticks true to form, and hangs on with no class at all, looking like a fool. Lending more of her own money to her sinking ship. Spouting ever more desperate nonsense. Then losing at the convention and quitting the party.
All of which will make Obama the man who saved us from That Person.
actually obama won texas by 5 delegates. but i honestly don't give a fuck at this point and can't believe we still have to put up with another 6 weeks of this. just tell me who to vote for in november and i'll do it. in fact just give it to hillary. anything to shut her and her lame ass husband the fuck up.
Was that your shot at sounding intelligent?
@ 25 No, just a shot at the facts. Or the truth. Or reality. You decide.
@19: You know these are all primary states you're talking about, right? Do you actually think John McW will win Pennsylvania, New York, and Massachusetts no matter who runs on the D side??
Neener, neener, neener!!! Go girl!
Confidential to Mr. Poe: Me love you, long time.
@26
WOW!!! Motherfucking nothing gets past you! Hope that's working out for 'ya.
@28
I love you, too, whoever you are; seeing how you refuse to attend da Slog Happy.
is obama's speech sponsored by Abercrombie and Fitch? who let the three tools in the back stand in camera view?
Due, those are the GAYS! He just gave a shout out to the homos!
that fidgety motherfucker on the right hasn't gone 15 seconds without talking to his friend. look for him on the daily show tomorrow night.
Watch out Poe, I think Jubilation Cornhole has a plan for you...
I hate to burst the Obama bubble, but he is in a bit of trouble. Mathematically, neither of them can win the nomination. The longer she hangs around, the greater the chance she finds a way to win the nomination.
I'm sure she is owed a lot of favors. Politics will trump "mathematics". This race is not over by a long shot.
@ Eli's 8:30 note
Awww shit! Watch the teeth, yo. Growl!
Two things:
1) Dan loves anus so much! He loves his own, he loves other mens in bathrooms, he loves Terry's. He has loved thousands of anus's over the course of his lifetime of buggering. Anything that offends the "anui" of the world is like watching the holocaust happen in front of him. To Dan, the persecution of anus's is like watching his best friend get gassed by nazis at aushwitz.
2) I love it when arrogant and ignorant city folk encounter something from the more rural part of this country. Not that any of you have actually shot a deer. No. Yet you go the extra step and conclude that someone who does is a serial killer. BRILLIANT!!! You guys sure do know a lot about life! I mean, between preening yourselves for a trip down to the glory hole, laughing at homeless people and finding new and exciting ways to make your hair look like shit, how do you have the time to chortle at the backwards ways of the common folk?
I take solace in the fact that city will turn into virtual slaughterhouses and you assholes will become cannibals when the impending collapse happens. That is, until you die from some ungodly illness picked up because you have no idea why it's important to core out your prey's asshole.
@33-- My plan for Mr. Poe includes healthcare for all Americans, no exceptions, no excuses. Mr. Poe and I will tackle autism and Alzheimer's, cancer and diabetes.
God love that little bugger.
@36
You really should start hanging around the Republican blogs, Mr. Ecce (Pseudo) Homo. You'll fit right in, what, with all your paranoia and extreme brouhaha. It'll bring a new voice to the right-wing community. You'll still be a remnant here on Slog, I mean...don't worry. We acknowledge your existence. But I think, as a friend, that you should go. To hell. Or something.
I am really looking forward to the superdelegates caving to nominate Clinton. Then we'll have riots like we haven't seen since 1968. Riots in Denver! Sweet! Then she gets destroyed by McCain in the general because every right wing nutcase who would have stayed home and changed the tinfoil liners in their hats will turn out to vote against her. Then she and her husband will be buried, forever. We'll never have to hear from the Clintons again! Imagine! And we can take another couple of trillion on the Visa card and another couple thousand dead in Iraq, so long as we get the White House back in 2012. So thanks, Clintons! Even though 60% of America despises Hillary, she's gonna grind on, W-style, until she gets the negatives up to that magical 80% range. Because she's just that kind of gal.
I want the Hillary of two months ago. She was amazing. But now we get this candidate?? What a ripoff.
I'm really kind of disappointed in this line of comments. about 95% of the attack on Hillary are meaningless personality attacks. It's absurd and depressing.
obama has nothing to worry about. hillary didnt do what she needed to do and she's
only gained 16 delegates out of this. hollow fucking victory McG, Mike In Pioneer Square, UnPC, et al. sure you'd like to crow about "victory", but she lost. shes like those japanese soldiers on the island that doesnt know the war is over yet and just happened to wing a gi.
@40
Yeah but your comment shines like a star.
The supes will give it to Hills. Obama is no longer popular anywhere except in liberal echo chambers like this one. And in states where he can count on black voters, like North Carolina.
Moderate? Gone. A New Kind of Politics? Gone. Articulate Debater? Gone.
If he loses Indiana, he's fucked.
Who's doing this parody of Big Sven?
Where's the reality based Big Sven? We were supposed to fight arm in arm at the barricades.
and yet he's currently averaging 50% in the polls, while hillary continues to sink. she has a ceiling of support of about 45% within the democratic party. nobody's won this thing yet, but he's definitely in the lead.
sven, want to make a bet on this?
cracked@45-
Ummmmmmmm... what? I've been a Clinton supporter since forever. That was indeed me @44.
And I'm in MN taking care of my dying mom, by the way. Not that I expect that to change anyone's attitude toward my argument; I just wanted to answer your question.
Fucking tired, time for bed...
@27: John McW? Seriously? McCain, foreign policy aside (and that's what you get with a republican) is about as far from the Shrub as you can get and not fuck men on weekends. Do you not remember how McCain generated an Obama-like fervour among young voters in the 2000 primaries? He was the original cut-the-bullshit dude who appealed to independents and got the media's attention for being honest.
Dude's got character.
One candidate "heavily outspent" the other and still lost by 10 points? sounds like someone should drop out for the sake of the party.
So, when all is said and done, she didn't win PA by 30 points, which is what she would have to win this and every following caucus and primary by to even catch up to Sen Obama.
Game over.
@44,
Yeah, and where are you getting this, other than out of your own ass?
@44 - Ha ha ha, i would bet you a fucking limb, you are so wrong. and officially you are now a fucking retard. Hillary Clintons supporters have done the unthinkable, they have surpassed supporters of the Iraq War in total denial of reality.
This was a great night for John McCain. Once again, unemployed rural wite Pabst chuggers and feminazis have betrayed the Democratic party.
Six delegates.
That's all she got in PA.
And she's behind by how many?
OVER. And OUT.
Somebody tell her to start working on her I Had A Dream speech, cause she can't even hope to catch up with results like this.
The lesbians and feminists, they love hillary. Vince Foster must be smiling down in hell.
Jennifer Flowers must be soooooo angry. They are popping champagne bottles at Wal-Mart and the Rose law firm. Bill Clinton did a line of coke off of Monica Lewinsky's woo-woo in celebration.
Stock up on pantsuits, girls. Men, you are about to be neutered. Witchcraft and atheism will hold sway. We'll have the ERA forced down our throats and we'll be forced to use unisex bathrooms.
Hillary's "big victories" have all come in Democratic machine states where the state and local parties backed her. Guess what? Those machines will be working for Barack in the general.
On the other hand, who thinks African Americans are going to vote 90% for Hillary if party leader screw a black man out of the nomination?
As I've said before, superdelegates aren't stupid. They're not going to alienate blacks, young people and new voters for a candidate who's toxic downticket and only looks out for number one. High risk; no reward.
A few of them will back her of course but not the 70% she needs.
Almost three months ago, I said her that Hillary if didn't deal a deathblow on Feb 5, it was over. And it is. The body's still thrashing about but brain activity ceased quite a while back.
But Hillary stopped playing for the nomination weeks ago; it's all about kneecapping Barack for the general so she can run in 2012.
cnn exit poll gives clinon a 4 point lead. sucks to be clinton
I love that people call an 8.5% win a resounding victory that should make Obama leave the race. Stupid. Congrats to Hillary for holding off Barack Obama. She couldn't have afforded much more time in this race b/c she bled support over the past several weeks. And she's in the red.
She has no hope of catching Obama in the delegate count. None whatsoever. Outside of the press, the vast majority of people hoping she hangs on are her deluded supporters and the DC pundit echo chamber.
A lot of the headlines today (outside of saying Hillary won by 10 points--she didn't) say she won but that it doesn't matter. That's not the type of spin she wants, really, is it?
It's over Clinton people. Over. She's lost.
Bellevue@47- fuck no! I realize it's a longshot. But because I think Clinton would do much, much better than Obama in the general election, I have to hope the supes come to their senses and save the election for us. By choosing Clinton.
keshmeshi, longball- the more shrill you sound, the more you damage your candidate. So keep it up.
I'm a woman, and I'm pretty liberal and all that. I'm straight, but I have tons of gay friends, and I love to go to Neighbours with my stylist Tod, but there's no way I can vote for Hillary Clinton. I just don't trust her. My best girlfriend Megan,we met at weight watchers (I love weight watchers lol)doesn't like her either. She says that It was great to be a feminist back in the 50's but this is today.
Plus there was all that stuff with her husband and those girls. I'm not sure I want that again. It was really embarassing for us liberals.
Plus, while I'm pro-choice and all that, I think a lot of girls use abortion as birth control, and I don't like that. I knew this girl in high school who had like seven abortions and she was a skank.
If I can't vote for Obama, I'm not going to vote - and Tod agrees with me.
Good morning all. It's a lovely day!
Sven. Hillary's unfavorable rating has shot up to more than double Obama's; that is to 54%, from, uh, only 40% a few months ago. If you want to believe that Obama is being hurt, you can, but the data says he is not. The data say Hillary is shooting herself here.
Fifty. Four. Percent.
Gallup has net favorable minus unfavorable. Hillary is struggling to get her's above ZERO. Those two lines way way up above her on the graph are the two viable presidential contenders.
So what does the super low unfavorablity rating for Hillary mean exactly? That while Hillary has a better chance of winning against McCain because our winner-take-all system elevates Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio to a level or disproportianate importance, more people actually would rather have Obama as president? Or, does it just mean that to people who won't vote for either Democrat (because they are Republican) they hate Obama less?
Either way its a bleak situation.
#64: Pretty much. If we decided the presidency based on a straight nationwide popular vote count Obama would have a better chance than Clinton. With our Electoral College system Clinton has a better chance because it becomes All. About. Ohio.
AM I TAKING CRAZY PILLS HERE.
The only differences I see between the two candidates is about 20 years, one has a more cynical candor, and one is named OBAMA and the other is named CLINTON.
Regardless, some people really really really hate Clinton (like Justin J), for reasons they really can't justify ... ie it doesn't appeal to their aesthetics.
@59 I’m with you, Big Sven (and my thoughts and best wishes go out to you and your mom).
As an ex-Ohioan-ex-Seattlite currently residing in the “Mean Line” burbs of Philly (where I work), I voted for Hils yesterday.
Because of her rather unfortunate campaign (and dumbfounding statements by her husband), I was a little borderline there for awhile, but all the poison spewing from the sloggers here has helped push me back into her camp.
Here’s why I voted for her:
1. She is a much more formidable public speaker in debates (and let’s face it, we need someone who can think quickly and confidently on her feet)
2. She’s ambitious, driven, and determined to do whatever it takes (which last I checked, was what politics is about, no?)
3. As she herself has admitted, her baggage is already out there
4. She’s been a part of the system, so she knows how it works, and what she will have to do to get things done (as well as all the shit she will have to wade through and get blamed for in the process).
5. I REFUSE TO HAVE ANOTHER JOHN KERRY WHO GETS HIS ASS KICKED BY THE GOP AND THEIR MINIONS BECAUSE HE WON’T FIGHT BACK. God knows Hil and Bill got fight in ‘em.
I have a lot of admiration for Obama, just as I did for John Kerry. I think they are both very intelligent and thoughtful speakers and authors. But we need to get somebody INTO the White House before they can start changing things.
@49:
"He was the original cut-the-bullshit dude who appealed to independents and got the media's attention for being honest."
Oh, so we're voting for 2000 John McCain? Because I got the impression that since 2000 McCain has been unfailingly supportive of W's policies at home and abroad. I also thought that, despite McCain's posturing as a "maverick," he's actually a doctrinaire conservative. Where's McCain on gay marriage? Where is he on health care? And, (DUH, most importantly), where is he on foreign policy? Oh that's right, "bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran."
Also, Don't Forget This: a McCain administration would bring in the same goddamn disasterous staff W's has, from the Joint Chiefs to the fucking caterers. And as much as W himself has been a calamity for the country, it's really Rummy/Condi/Rove/Card/Alito/Petreaus/Cheney who we have to thank for our current situation. And don't think for a second you'd see "Defense Secretary Lieberman" or moderate Supreme Court Justice picks from a McCain administration.
God DAMNIT I'm pissed. McSame, McW, McBush. He's running for Bush's third term.
@67, Obama will let his supporters do the talking when they vote.
@49 ... and the same damn archaic social values that McCain brings that will inevitably make society FAIL.
I don't want to loose choice, reproductive freedoms, or education. Supposedly, thanks to Roe V. Wade, we aborted an entire generation of violent criminals. Call me a cycnic, but society needs to focus on the QUALTIY of life over the QUANTITY of life, something social conservatives don't seem to get.
Reason why I will vote democrat regardless, is because I grew up in a broken home, pulled myself through an university education (AND NOW A DOCTORATE) and have the student loans to show for it. If I were to attempt to do start this under the Bush years, it wouldn't happen!
Dare I say it, but the country NEEDS more people like me. Trades people who inevitably will create more markets, more products, and more economies instead of this "trickle down" bull shit which is more like squeezing grain and arms from peasents honestly.
(Of course because ass fucks like Bush have been cutting down on MEANINGFUL research and the economy is such ... having trouble getting a job .. ceist la vi)
@70 - you mean like yesterday's Wall Street Journal article about how McCain's tax cuts for the super rich would TRIPLE the already insane budget deficit, not including the cost of the already insane Iraq War and the Iran War he wants to drag us into?
Ouch.
Why Hillary does NOT make a good candidate
1. actually looked over there congressional records and all of her bills are about naming post offices and no brainer 911 bills. Obamas are more nuanced and meaningful. ie a national registry so that victims of natural disaster can find their loved ones.
2. She has the largest amount of earmarks and all of them and they are for direct compaign contributors.
3. Experience??? After the health care debacle of 92, she didn't do anything in the White House that any other first lady has done. Except take photo ops with Wo and other large corrupt contributors (which was redacted in the release of her schedule). If being the first lady counts as experience than why isn't Laura Bush running.
4. She is ruining the party, the electorate, and apparently is willing to slice America up into 3rds just for the chance to lose the Presidency.
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