Comments on The Morning News

So Hillary won the uneducated white people which we call "white trash".

I wonder if McCain will actually win in a landslide in November? I think McCain will win 54% of the popular vote at least but he could get more than that.

BTW, all that money that we are so damn giddy about the Democrats are making is not going towards the general election. In contrast, every penny McCain gets goes to the general election. So explain to my HOW this primary process is good for the party? It certianly is good for the Republicans.

Keep in mind, the Democrats will loose 20 to 30% of their support no matter who wins the nomination as they will feel cheated in the nomination process.

Thank you, Hillary! It's another great day to be a Republican. I'm looking forward to the crossovers from SLOG in November.

What is the calculus of the number of electoral votes that McCain picks up the longer this process goes on? Should we say McCain gains additional electoral vote for each period of 5 days that the Democrats go without a nominee? Thoughts?

Hillary's unfavorable rating is plummeting at a rate of about a quarter point per day. Does that help, Andrew?

New SD endorsement for Obama:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/23/oklahoma-governor-brad-he_n_98156.html

Isn't that the ONLY great moment in Sonics history?

Give the people from Wisconsin some credit. At least they are honest about it. Don't treat this like it is just an issue of "Oh, Wisconsin is the only state with this type of a drunk driving problem." Guess what? In the states where small towns are the predominant population, drunk driving is GOING TO HAPPEN. As for bigger cities, you think people don't drink and drive in LA at all? It's a matter of public transportation. People are going to stay home and drink? Right. There are no viable alternatives to getting home in these towns and cities with either crappy or no public transport. All of the fines for DUIs should go to funding public transportation in the respective communities, not "education" programs that don't work.

BTW, I don't know if it's a trend or not, but can we PLEASE stop spelling lose "loose". It's all over postings these days and, since it seems everyone else has a pet peeve about grammar and punctuation, that's mine.

@ 2,

Ha ha, that really is the perfect metaphor and match for our nation: A war-mongering, PTSD psycho-geezer who openly admits he doesn't know jack shit about the economy, healthcare, the environment or how to pay for the wars he's going to start, and a Mystic-tanned, self-loathing, face-biting, closet case who's just as dead below the waist as his constituents.

McCain/Crist '08, indeed.

in other news:

my car was stolen this morning! or maybe last night. from the corner of 14th and harrison. lame.

if you see a blue 90 crx with a black bicycle rack on top, let me know! maybe it's still in the neighborhood...

ABC News lies about guns. http://confederateyankee.mu.nu/archives/260866.php

The guns focused on in the article are NOT available at civilian US gun stores or shows.

I can't quite get over the exit poll breakdowns from PA. The New York Times broke things down by education level:

1. high school graduate: C 64, O 36
2. some college or associate degree: C 51, O 49
3. college graduate: C 46, O 53
4. postgraduate study: C 48, O 52

Well, setting aside the question of whether they were counting people with less than a high school education, consider this.

PA is the kind of state where black voters trend more toward the less-educated side than the more-educated side. So you figure Obama's edge among voters with at least a bachelor's degree indicates he did well with well-educated whites/non-blacks. By the same token, you figure that a lot of his support among high school graduates came from blacks. Therefore, in that combination cohort of "high school graduate" + "white/non-black," you figure Obama lost even worse than 64-36, in fact much worse.

I wouldn't be surprised if PA broke down like this:

1. College-educated whites: C 50, O 50
2. High school-educated whites: C 75, O 25

People, interpret these extrapolations as you wish. I'm just putting 'em out there...

FWIW, I grew up in small-town, "bitter" part of PA, and I've got my own interpretation.

@8, instead of being condescending, please explain this: how are the Dems going to win in Nov when white blue collar folks won't vote for Obama, and blacks won't vote for Hillary? Your party is damaged.

RE: Finals reminiscing

Why did they get funky horns and shit for backing music in the 70s and we get Tom Petty? The NBA has truly fallen far.

Comptroller is my favorite job title.

@12, as soon as you explain how the Democrats will win by kissing ass to the blue collar workers and alienating the rest by calling us rich stuck up liberals.

You need both parts of the party and let's face it, it is not going to happen at this point. It is simply too damn late.

Two things:
1) Dan loves anus so much! He loves his own, he loves other mens in bathrooms, he loves Terry's. He has loved thousands of anus's over the course of his lifetime of buggering. Anything that offends the "anui" of the world is like watching the holocaust happen in front of him. To Dan, the persecution of anus's is like watching his best friend get gassed by nazis at aushwitz.
2) I love it when arrogant and ignorant city folk encounter something from the more rural part of this country. Not that any of you have actually shot a deer. No. Yet you go the extra step and conclude that someone who does is a serial killer. BRILLIANT!!! You guys sure do know a lot about life! I mean, between preening yourselves for a trip down to the glory hole, laughing at homeless people and finding new and exciting ways to make your hair look like shit, how do you have the time to chortle at the backwards ways of the common folk?
I take solace in the fact that city will turn into virtual slaughterhouses and you assholes will become cannibals when the impending collapse happens. That is, until you die from some ungodly illness picked up because you have no idea why it's important to core out your prey's asshole.

@12, Obama has a hard time winning white blue collar folks when she's running against Obama. It does not necessarily follow that he will not win the votes of those same people when he's running against an economically clueless, doddering old warmonger.

Obama is at his low point in the polls nationally right now, until he finally drives the stake into the heart of the Clinton campaign. Once that happens and there's a happy convention, he'll target his money at McCain and win the general election in a rout.

er, @17 I meant "...when HE'S running against CLINTON."

@9 - infrequent, that totally sucks man. I had my car stolen three times since living here. Finally invested in a Club and that seemed to do the trick. Hopefully it'll turn up.

@1 Its not clear to me why Clinton supporters should feel cheated if she loses. Obama leads in delegates, popular vote, number of states won. What else can he win at?

Texas and Nevada are called Clinton victories, even though Obama got more delegates there.

Her 9.3% victory is being morphed by the media into a 10% victory.

After PA Obama's delegate lead is only going to increase.

What are they hoping for? Dan's right, where are the grownups?

All of you pessimists are making me more ill than the Pennsylvania headline in the P.I. this morning.

#1, "all that money that we are so damn giddy about the Democrats are making is not going towards the general election. In contrast, every penny McCain gets goes to the general election. So explain to my HOW this primary process is good for the party?"

Maybe the fact that we're making *several* times more money than McCain in the process?

#1, "Keep in mind, the Democrats will loose 20 to 30% of their support no matter who wins the nomination as they will feel cheated in the nomination process."

#2, "I'm looking forward to the crossovers from SLOG in November."

So you believe a stupid poll about Democratic defectors, but you don't believe another (stupid) poll that says Obama or Hillary both with the general election? This defector meme is total bullshit.

#3, "Should we say McCain gains additional electoral vote for each period of 5 days that the Democrats go without a nominee?"

No, we shoudn't. Why would we do this? What basis do you have for doing this?

#4, cite? Did you mean she's getting less unfavorable or more unfavorable?

#12, "white blue collar folks won't vote for Obama, and blacks won't vote for Hillary"

Once again, primary dynamics do not translate to general election dynamics. What #17 said.

#16, repost much?

Actually, the PA state web site says she got an 8.4 percent victory, but don't let facts mess with your mind.

And, at this rate, with a 6 delegate gain, she'll win the nomination in 2025.

As in ... never.

@3, etc.

All the polling data you'll ever needs lives at electoral-vote.com

w7ngman, I should have said her unfavorables are soaring, not plummeting, at a rate of around a quarter point per day.

See my links from yesterday, Gallup and WaPo. Hillary is looking more and more presidential, in that she is about to match George W Bush for record high unfavoarables.

Extrapolating at this rate, everyone in America, including Erica Barnett and Josh Feit, will either dislike or fucking loathe her, by February 1, 2009.

#24, ok, that's more in line with what I was thinking. I've been saying for awhile to ignore general election polls and that negatives are everything. If your negatives are at a given number, you really are not going to win those people back (especially when you're Hillary Clinton). Negatives over 50% basically means that you CANNOT win the election, unless you manage to switch people back to favorable or undecided and pick up the "lesser of two evils" vote.

Caveat there, though, is that the "lesser of two evils" thing is more of a factor than I'd like to think. For example, I have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton, but I'd vote for her in the general. It's important to compare favorability/unfavorability between two opponents and not just assume if your unfavorability is greater than 50% that you will lose the election. If the other guy's unfavorability is higher you still have a chance.

What might be even more important, though, are the "favorability on issue X" polls for the war and the economy. I think either candidate would trounce McCain there.

kid icarus, thanks for commiserating... yeah, i should probably get a club or something, i guess.

until then, be on the lookout...