The polls are open for the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania today. Predictions? Rumors? Innuendo? Lists of demands? Late-breaking, world-changing news that will alter the course of the campaign? Have at it.
Prediction? Ok. unPC will post a really long comment including something about polls and bizarre theory's about why Obama is unelectable. Most readers will roll their eyes as they scroll past it.
Posted by
Mike of Renton |
April 22, 2008 10:10 AM
I think it'll fall in line with the how the polls have projected. Obama will win Philly and Pittsburgh but lose the rest of the state and therefore the primary. His comment about bitterness didn't do him any favors and I think a black candidate will have trouble outside of the two major PA cities.
If he ends up as the Dem candidate, I don't think he can count on Pennsylvania's electoral votes either.
Friend in Philly said he saw no one in center city wearing a Hillary button, but lots of Obama stuff. That makes sense. It's the rest of the state that's in play.
If today is at all like past contests, Clinton's victory will be just sizeable enough for her supporters to DEMAND she stays in the race and her detractors to DEMAND she leave the race. I'd peg her victory at around 9 points.
I voted this morning in Pittsburgh- the poll workers said there was good turnout so far, although the line was very short at my polling place. My coworker who lives in Oakland (where Pitt and Carnegie Mellon are located) said the line was so long he couldn't vote this morning, and will try again after work. So good turnout in Pittsburgh, especially among young people, is a good sign for Obama. Who knows if it's enough or not.
Setting aside expectations, which matter little anymore since there are only 900 delegates left to be claimed (including uncommited supers) and 160 are up for grabs tonight, here's what I think. If Hillary wins by 13% or more she may get some momentum as she needs to win 58% of the remaining delegates (including supers) to get a tie. If she wins by 8-12 the race continues as is. If Obama wins or loses by 7 or less the math will be clear that there is no scenario by which Hillary can win and the supers will start crawling out of the woodwork for Obama.
The Main Stream Media has been conducting polls at a constant rate, but they fail to mention a serious flaw in their methodology, namely that they can only poll people who have land lines and ignore those voters who only use cell phones. I haven't had a land line in 7 years and I don't know anyone my age who still does.
Clinton does better with the old biddies, who are much more likely to have land lines than with the younger generations. Granted, young voters often say they're going to vote but fail to do so, but I think Obama is going to squeak out a victory today and shock the pollsters.
Get ready to hear the MSM opine on how shocking it is that the polls were wrong.
2. Obama will win as many or possibly more delegates from PA as Hils.
3. Clinton will continue to deny reality, and ignore the fact that she would need to win PA by 30 points and every race after that by 30 points to even have a chance at the nomination.
4. This will be spun by both campaigns as a win.
5. McCain will continue to supply Clinton's campaign with attack ads against Obama, and Clinton will continue to use them shamelessly.
6. Somewhere Newt Gingrich is trying to pretend he's changed and become green while plotting the destruction of the USA as a world power for the personal greed of himself and his comrades in the GOP.
Hillary: "If Obama cannot win the pledged delegates, superdelegates, electoral and popular votes by at least 30%, how can he possibly expect to win against the Republicans in November?"
I hear there's a Clinton Election Watch Victory Party from 5 pm on at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Ave E. Anyone know of any other election watch parties?
I'm carpooling a Clinton Delegate from there to KCDCC - FWIW we Obama people think carpooling on Earth Day is a good idea.
I cast my ballot for Obama this morning, as did all my other peeps. But I fear I live in Clinton territory, where her signs outnumber his by 10-1.
I work at a newspaper in Mercer County and we got a call from a woman this morning about an old bastard picking on some little kids holding an Obama sign while walking to school today.
The man said "anyone would be better than a colored guy."
For reals. That's how it is here. THAT makes me bitter.
Posted by
courtlyn in pennsyltucky |
April 22, 2008 2:48 PM
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I'm more interested in altering the course of the champagne.
*snore*
Prediction? Ok. unPC will post a really long comment including something about polls and bizarre theory's about why Obama is unelectable. Most readers will roll their eyes as they scroll past it.
wear your dream jeans.
I think it'll fall in line with the how the polls have projected. Obama will win Philly and Pittsburgh but lose the rest of the state and therefore the primary. His comment about bitterness didn't do him any favors and I think a black candidate will have trouble outside of the two major PA cities.
If he ends up as the Dem candidate, I don't think he can count on Pennsylvania's electoral votes either.
Friend in Philly said he saw no one in center city wearing a Hillary button, but lots of Obama stuff. That makes sense. It's the rest of the state that's in play.
My favorite Tuesday TeeVee shows will be negatively impacted by the stoopid state of PA.
Hey! Where's the long, tiresome spampost from unPC? His rants are almost as coma inducing as the writings of ECB.
Almost.
If today is at all like past contests, Clinton's victory will be just sizeable enough for her supporters to DEMAND she stays in the race and her detractors to DEMAND she leave the race. I'd peg her victory at around 9 points.
I voted this morning in Pittsburgh- the poll workers said there was good turnout so far, although the line was very short at my polling place. My coworker who lives in Oakland (where Pitt and Carnegie Mellon are located) said the line was so long he couldn't vote this morning, and will try again after work. So good turnout in Pittsburgh, especially among young people, is a good sign for Obama. Who knows if it's enough or not.
Fnarf... where is this case of champagne???
Setting aside expectations, which matter little anymore since there are only 900 delegates left to be claimed (including uncommited supers) and 160 are up for grabs tonight, here's what I think. If Hillary wins by 13% or more she may get some momentum as she needs to win 58% of the remaining delegates (including supers) to get a tie. If she wins by 8-12 the race continues as is. If Obama wins or loses by 7 or less the math will be clear that there is no scenario by which Hillary can win and the supers will start crawling out of the woodwork for Obama.
The Main Stream Media has been conducting polls at a constant rate, but they fail to mention a serious flaw in their methodology, namely that they can only poll people who have land lines and ignore those voters who only use cell phones. I haven't had a land line in 7 years and I don't know anyone my age who still does.
Clinton does better with the old biddies, who are much more likely to have land lines than with the younger generations. Granted, young voters often say they're going to vote but fail to do so, but I think Obama is going to squeak out a victory today and shock the pollsters.
Get ready to hear the MSM opine on how shocking it is that the polls were wrong.
Predictions:
1. Hils will win by 4-6 points.
2. Obama will win as many or possibly more delegates from PA as Hils.
3. Clinton will continue to deny reality, and ignore the fact that she would need to win PA by 30 points and every race after that by 30 points to even have a chance at the nomination.
4. This will be spun by both campaigns as a win.
5. McCain will continue to supply Clinton's campaign with attack ads against Obama, and Clinton will continue to use them shamelessly.
6. Somewhere Newt Gingrich is trying to pretend he's changed and become green while plotting the destruction of the USA as a world power for the personal greed of himself and his comrades in the GOP.
Hillary: "If Obama cannot win the pledged delegates, superdelegates, electoral and popular votes by at least 30%, how can he possibly expect to win against the Republicans in November?"
I hear there's a Clinton Election Watch Victory Party from 5 pm on at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Ave E. Anyone know of any other election watch parties?
I'm carpooling a Clinton Delegate from there to KCDCC - FWIW we Obama people think carpooling on Earth Day is a good idea.
@16 - Or you could, you know, take the #43 bus. Or just stay home and eat some of that eco-Campbell's I've been hearing about.
The 43 bus doesn't go from Gasworks Park to Montlake and then to Kent in 45 minutes ....
Besides, I get 36 mpg, hoser.
I cast my ballot for Obama this morning, as did all my other peeps. But I fear I live in Clinton territory, where her signs outnumber his by 10-1.
I work at a newspaper in Mercer County and we got a call from a woman this morning about an old bastard picking on some little kids holding an Obama sign while walking to school today.
The man said "anyone would be better than a colored guy."
For reals. That's how it is here. THAT makes me bitter.
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