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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

PA Exit Polls

posted by on April 22 at 16:01 PM

Drudge has plastered some exit poll data—unsourced—across the top of his website: “Clinton 52, Obama 48.” If those are the numbers they’re bad for Clinton. But are those the numbers? Says TPM

As you may have noticed Drudge has up what he says are 5 PM exit poll numbers showing Clinton 52%, Obama 48%. I suspect they are ‘accurate’ as far as early, un-weighted exits can be. But let me point out that my recollection is that pretty much all the early and unweighted exits we’ve seen this cycle have turned out to be wrong. And often very wrong. So this has to be taken with a real grain of salt. And that’s assuming they’re not made up entirely.

TPM goes on to link to results showing Obama at 52 and Clinton at 47, then links to Brendan Loy, who reminds us that “early exits have not only routinely been wrong but they’ve routinely been wrong in Obama’s favor.”

Should be a long night.

RSS icon Comments

1

No, it really won't be a long night.

We will all wake up with Hillary in the same position she was in before the PA primary.

Mathematically eliminated, yet still animated, trying to get her zombie mouth on Obama's brains.

Posted by NapoleonXIV | April 22, 2008 4:09 PM
2

According to CNN, Hillary needs ~500 delegates to win the nomination, and Barack needs ~400, with about 800 left to be decided. Clearly Hillary's the underdog, but all this 'mathematically eliminated' talk is kind of silly.

Posted by John | April 22, 2008 4:44 PM
3

The tension at The Stranger! I can almost cut it with a knife--a blunt, ambivalent one. These two candidates are separated by minuscule amounts in terms of policy and practical outcome on the next four to eight years. If you ground them up into political chuck and did a blind taste-test, not a single "progressive" Obama supporter here could pick his or her candidate.

They both taste like chicken: winning chicken. It's pure curb-appeal.

Either candidate will beat McCain, handedly. Read the political science literature (Erison 1989).

If we're all so interested in Obama's impact on politics in this country... why are we so eager to promote him to head-of-the-pack? In eight years, he's done and farmed out to tours, crashing foreign policy, memoirs and Peace Prizes. He stands to do a lot of good with a longer Senatorial stint, perhaps a Vice Presidency, then a turn at the wheel. Except then he'd come with more experience, more clout and a greater capacity to enact this Change we're all so fond of.

Posted by Mike D | April 22, 2008 5:14 PM
4

In the end it will be close to a 50-50 draw for delegates, which is all that matters to the DNC.

Clinton lost, even if she "won".

Posted by Will in Seattle | April 22, 2008 5:16 PM
5

Okay, I'm watching Obama's concession speech . . . can we please take a moment for the tweaked out faggot behind him in the green Abercrombie shirt? I swear to god I just saw him freaking texting behind his sign. He's chatting to the boy next to him like nothing is going on and then every time the crowd cheers he tunes back in and is like "oh shit!" and holds up his sign!

Posted by Gander | April 22, 2008 7:53 PM

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