I can't see any scenario where Obama is not the nominee. It's his to lose. But what I find bothersome is the national polls which show McCain leading against him. Status Quo winning? Oh no! We're fucked!
Especially considering how fucked up our current status quo is.
But he hasn't started running against McCain. Let's hold off the panicking until then.
Just say yes to coca, no to cocaine.
Saying Obama regains the lead is a bit biased. It means the lead over Clinton but we all know OBama's gonna win based on pledged delegates + chicken shit fear of superdelegates to do the job they were created to do. Meanwhile, Obama is now losing against McCain and OBama does not better than Clinton against McCain:
"Both Democrats have inched closer to John McCain in the latest update on registered voters' general election preferences. McCain holds just a two percentage point edge over both -- 46% to 44% over Obama and 47% to 45% over Clinton."
So, Obama has no "lead" in electability at all.
"Obama lsoing to McCain" or "Obama tied with Clinton as against McCain" would have been accurate summaries too.
And actually better summaries as we all know OBama's going to win the nomination.
@1 and @3:
@1 is right. We should be highly concerned. We are fucked. We SHOULD be panicking (then calm down and figure out what to do).
@3: um, "Obama hasn't started running against McCain" NSDT but McCain hasn't started running against Obama and play the movie forward and you will foresee tons of ads questioning Obama's patriotism and qualifications to lead when he sticks with his pastor 20 yrs. while the pastor hates the USA and teaches that white-controlled govt. caused genocide against minorities by creating HIV. Stuff like that. Obama gave the church money, etc. etc.
The big speech Obama gave did great among democrats the media and intellectuals, but not so well among others. Let's check on that and see what survey usa says in various state based head to heads:
MA: Obama is tied to McCain. WTF!!!!! Clinton beats McCain by 13 points.
MN: Obama is down 1 point. WTF!!
Clinton is ahead 3 points. Overall, Alabama: both waay down, but Clinton does 9 pts better than Obama.
CA: Both solidly ahead of McCain C. does 4 pts. better than Obama.
IA: Obama beats McCain, Clinton loses & Obama does 18 points better than Clinton.
KS both D's lose by healthy margins, Obama does better.
NY both D's win, C does better.
VA Obama beats McCain by just one point, Clinton is tied.
WI: Obama ahead of McCain 48-44, Clinton ahead of McCain 46-45. Obama does 3 points better.
OH: Clinton wins ag. McCain 50-44. Obama loses against McCain, 43-50. WTF !!!!!!
NM: exact tie, both D's win it over McCain 51-45.
KY: not a tie. Clinton gets 43 to McCain's 53. Obama gets 28 to McCain's 64.
MO: Clinton loses to McCain by 2 points 46-48, Obama loses to McCain by 14 points, 39-53. WTF!!!
I left out OR and WA on the asumption Obama does better than Clinton.
The pattern is this:
Obama having to fight just to win MA sucks big time. Being behind in MN and losing OH totally sucks, too. That's about 42 EC votes right there. Being way better in IA with just 6 ECV hardly offsets this.
And O is so far behind in states like KY MO and AL it seems like Clinton is the one who can run the braoder campaign in more states.
Now let's look at that Survey USA map showing Obama beating McCain with 280 electoral college votes (way back on 3.6.08) (270 needed to win).
Throw out OH MN and MA from Obma's column, he becomes a general election loser with just 238 ECV.
So yes, @1 and @3, we are in deep, deep shit.
Attitudes like "let's hold off" thinking about this or let's continue the bickering for a few more months don't help. I think "we're fucked1" helps a lot mroe and is waaaay more accurate.
what do we do?
it's long been known Obama will likely win. I don't see HRC wining unless she beats him in PA and NC and IN creating a real momentum type arguments to hold and get enough superdelegates.
That kind of 3 way vicotry is possible but not very likely.
I don't see her quitting so pissing on her cause she won't quit is futile.
So.....why not have Obama look all presidential and seat FL revote MI float HRC with others for VP and all the Obama supporters stop bashing HRC and all the HRC supporters (note: comment is addressed to those who bash only. Duh.) I mean, do you want us to help Obama or not? Demonizing someone who is getting well over 45% on most yardsticks is stupid politics if you want the blunt truth.
Another solution would be to get Gore in there. If not VP, float him for "Being on the OBama team" maybe he could be the greening of the economy czar.
Likely there are other ideas, too.
Personally I'd like to see Obama take this race thing even further. There are some ways in which I find him totally not radical enough and other ways in which he should have been more sister Souljah-ish. Really, telling kids the govt. created HIV is wrong, wrong, wrong and should not be excused, for example.
Anyway, there seems to be even more teaching needed on the race issue.
Likely there are other ideas about what to do too but I think denying we are in dep shit, and bashing HRC (no matter how just or rightful) -- doesn't help.
@1 - Whatever. A couple months ago Hillary was beating Obama in polls. A few years ago Kerry was slightly ahead of Bush in polls. Other polls show Obama in the lead anyway. It's way too early to fret.
@4 - I agree, HRC should stop using former President Clinton to bash Obama.
Oh, wait, you were trying to spin it pro-McCain, weren't you?
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