2008 Thanks to Hils, WA Demoted to “Likely Democrat”
posted by on March 5 at 9:10 AM
Here’s why there’s no freaking way Washington’s undeclared supers are going to go for Hillary in the end. A new Rasmussen poll of 500 likely Washington voters has the following unhappy news:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Washington state voters finds John McCain and Barack Obama essentially tied in a general election match-up. McCain leads Obama 45% to 44%.McCain tops Hillary Clinton 48% to 40% in the Evergreen State.
[…]
With the release of this poll, Washington will shift from Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. The calculator factors in poll results, results from Rasmussen Markets, voting history, and other factors to determine a state’s rating.
The margin of error is 4.5 percentage points.
I don’t have access to all the crosstabs, but it’s pretty clear that Obama’s relative strength is coming from his appeal across genders, while HRC is boxing herself in with women: “In Washington, Obama leads McCain among female voters 46% to 41% but trails him 50% to 42% among men. McCain holds a nineteen-point lead over Clinton among men, but the two are essentially even among women.”
It’s becoming increasingly clear—and you can bet the superdelegates are paying attention. We can’t afford to nominate HRC with John McCain on the other side.
That's always been my thought- as much as I like Hilary (and I do), if McCain is the nominee for the Republicans the Democrat nominee has to be Obama. I still have reservations and not a little bit of sadness, but Obama is the best person to take on McCain and win.
I still think Hilary would be a great President, though.
It's a question the Superdelegates should be asking: Which candidate is likely to support and bring out voters for *all* democratic races?
Come November, if Clinton simply keeps focused on the big market States, lesser Democratic candidates in Washington, Wyoming, and West Virginia are gonna be screwed...
"Bils" will find a way to screw the Democratic party yet. She has a huge ego to stroke, and she would rather drag down the party than bow out.
Sad really. And all of you across the nation are buying into her hype and negative attack ads.
I'll be voting McCain if Bils is the nominee. You all will be waking up to the reality of another 4 years of a Repug in office. Have fun with that. I'll be laughing at your sorry asses for 4 lonnnnggggg years.
'Nuff said.
Clinton will win the traditional, large Dem states. However, McCain appeals to some Dems, and lots of Indies. As a WA resident, my choices, in order of preference, Obama, McCain, write-in.
IF Hillary gets the nomination and gets trounced by McCain, you can be that the name "Clinton" will be reviled in Democratic politics for decades to come.
I'm not automatically convinced that would happen, however (her getting the nom, I mean).
Is it too late to nominate Mitt Romney as our democratic nominee? We need to make those misogynistic white men happy ASAP.
One of the reasons why our Governor probably endorsed Obama, other than that he's the best candidate, is that if he runs, she has a much easier and cleaner race, whereas Clinton makes it a lot harder for her to win.
Them's the cold hard facts.
But one wonders if Ron Sims thinks that Clinton does the same thing for him - a reverse effect?
Abby wins @1.
I disagree. I think the poll illustrates the Obama supporters unwillingness to support anyone but their choice. Which is unfortunate, because it probably means another Republican president.
crazy cat guy, do indie voters or undecided exist?
Annie, what about New Jersey and Florida where Clinton beats McCain, but McCain beats Obama?
According to that same Rasmussen Report, NJ goes from democrat to likely democrat with Obama....
arduous - how about Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Kansas (where Obama is within 6 and has a sitting governor supporting him and Hil is down 20+), and the national polls (of questionable usefullness).
wah - trust me, the racists that Hilary got last night will be misogynists in November if McCain is the nominee.
She just doesn't match up that well with McCain - independents will never vote for her. Because she's a woman? Maybe. Because she's a Clinton? Most definitely.
Annie,
Your reasoning presumes that our elected officials and superdelegates are generally responsive to public opinion. Most of them are not and do not have to be. Almost every house district in this state is a gerymandered safe seat where incumbents get token opponents at best. There won't be a backlash and they know it. Polling really won't affect their reasoning-- the hope for jobs in the next Dem administration will, though. But if superdelegates as a whole trump the vote of regular delegates, there will be a dark cloud hanging over whichever candidate finally emerges with the Dem nomination.
Do we believe this poll? Chris Gregoire managed to beat Dino Rossi, but Obama would lose to McCain? WTF?
rasmussen is a republican pollster. he had hrc up by 6% in ohio the lowest of all the polls, except zogby, listed by realclearpolitics [she won by 10%] - he has hrc ahead in penn by 4 rcp average 9. texas obama by 1 rcp hrc by 1.7.
why would the republican pollster most always have her doing the worst compared to other polls?
@13 - there aren't many "safe" seats for Red Bushies this year. Even Rhode Island is no longer safe, and traditionally Red states are up for grabs.
Everyone knows this, but the MSM refuses to talk about it, because it becomes less of a "nail-biter" for them to write stories about.
Speaking of nail-biting, I think of the hundreds of Obama supporters I met last night, only two were that concerned.
We always planned on a long battle. Clinton never did.
"McCain tops Hillary Clinton"
Was I the only one who shuddered reading that phrase?
Flying Spaghetti Monster help us, no one should *ever* put those words together in a sentence again.
Amen.
Well, he always like blondes.
@13: Well, I'm making a distinction between our elected superdelegates--only two of whom have not yet endorsed--and the DNC types, who I believe will be making more strategic decisions. Strategy encompasses both not upsetting the pledged delegate lead (I'm pretty sure Obama will have that going into the convention), not contradicting the popular vote (Obama will probably have that, and if he's behind, that's probably because the popular count doesn't include caucuses), and which candidate is better positioned to beat McCain (not completely clear at this point, but my money's on Obama).
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