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Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Playing the Permutations Game

posted by on March 4 at 18:05 PM

Our Ohio results thread is here. Our Texas results thread is here.

While we wait for more info about who’s up by how much in which state, here’s what I think about some possible scenarios.

Obama wins Ohio and Texas (both the primary and the caucus): Unlikely given the results in Ohio so far. But if he somehow does this, game over. Clinton will withdraw, or she will be forced to withdraw.

Clinton wins Ohio, loses the Texas primary, and loses the Texas caucus: This is one of the harder scenarios to game out. Clinton might very well try to spin a win in Ohio into a rationale for going on—because, she might argue, if Obama can’t win Ohio then he’ll have a hard time winning the presidency. But does this argument fly if she loses both the primary and the caucus in Texas? I don’t think so, especially if she loses big. If she doesn’t lose big, she has more room to maneuver.

Clinton wins Ohio, wins the Texas primary, and loses the Texas caucus: If this happens, Clinton makes the argument that she’s back in it, that the caucus results should be ignored because caucuses tend to favor Obama, and that the delegate count (which probably still won’t favor her) should be ignored because she’s “just getting warmed up” or something similar. The race will go on until Pennsylvania votes on April 22.

Clinton wins Ohio, wins the Texas primary, and wins the Texas caucus: Unlikely given Obama’s strength in caucuses. But if this happens, same prediction as immediately above, but with hardly any resistance to Clinton pushing on.

RSS icon Comments

1

Sure.

Posted by Dave Coffman | March 4, 2008 6:10 PM
2

Clinton will win OH & the TX primary. Obama takes the TX Caucus. And the race continues.

Posted by Fitz | March 4, 2008 6:17 PM
3

he doesnt need to win ohio. he could take georgia, virginia and south carolina and win.

Posted by Bellevue Ave | March 4, 2008 6:22 PM
4

I can't stand it. It DOES NOT MATTER WHO "WINS" A STATE. It matters by how much. If the current percentages hold up (which is rather unlikely, but bear with me) Clinton gets a delegate bump of about ten.

Big deal. She's still well over a hundred or so behind.

There are still something like 471 superdelegates who haven't declared for anyone, and a TON of undecided delegates from other states as well. Obama's inching closer and closer to parity on superdelegates. You know how many states have all their delegates sorted out? ONE: New Hampshire.

Posted by Fnarf | March 4, 2008 6:28 PM
5

i was talking about electoral votes fnarfattack.

Posted by Bellevue Ave | March 4, 2008 6:32 PM
6

B.A. how much would you like to bet that Obama wins SC, GA, and VA in November? Why do you keep saying that he can win those states? On what basis?

The Dems lost by 550,000 votes in GA and about 300,000 votes in SC and VA in 2004.

Posted by McG | March 4, 2008 6:46 PM
7

VA will be in play for the Dems. It has a Dem Senator and Gov. And it's the only Southern state to ever elect an African American as Gov.

Posted by Tony | March 4, 2008 6:49 PM
8

I'll hand it to her, Clinton is currently cleaning up. OH is (so far) exactly the kind of bomb she needs: 59-39. Texas looks like a tie. She's still way behind in delegates, but it's enough to carry on.

Posted by Fnarf | March 4, 2008 6:57 PM
9

Tony maybe VA but that wasn't the bet - SC, GA and VA - any takers?

Posted by McG | March 4, 2008 7:05 PM
10

Oh and Tony VA's new Senator was a Republican and from the military. VA is the most likely of B.A.'s three

Posted by McG | March 4, 2008 7:10 PM
11

McG, I'm speaking of Senator Webb. Unless I missed something, he is one of VA's Senators. Not getting into a pissing contest. Just stating facts.

Posted by Tony | March 4, 2008 7:22 PM
12

Oh, Senator Webb is a highly decorated, well-respected veteran. And he is a Democrat.

Posted by Tony | March 4, 2008 7:24 PM
13

I think obama could win in states that are more religious. McCain isn't exactly well liked among the religious

Posted by Bellevue Ave | March 4, 2008 7:30 PM

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