2008 Hillary Deathwatch
posted by March 28 at 18:08 PMon
When Slate rolled out the Hillary Deathwatch this morning—a daily feature tracking Clinton’s fortunes and assigning a percentage to her chances of gaining the nomination—they put Hillary’s chances at 12%. Well, Hillary had a rough day: Slate has dropped Hillary’s chances down to 10.3%. Says Slate….
Friday was not kind to Hillary Clinton. Based on Deathwatch’s top-secret morbidity formula, Hillary tanked on four metrics today, reducing her chances of winning the nomination by 1.7 points to 10.3 percent. The nastiest news for Clinton is in the polls. She has drifted eight points behind Obama in a national Gallup survey—the first time that she has trailed Obama by a statistically significant margin since the Rev. Wright imbroglio.
Here’s that Gallup daily tracking poll…
Hm. Looks bad.
There was also the Casey endorsement today, Leahy’s call for Hillary to drop out, and Howard Dean’s call for the nominee to be selected by July 1—which would require, of course, the superdelegates to make up their damn minds well before the convention.
But… um… after taking a late-afternoon look at the Hillary Deathwatch… it occurs to me that if Barack Obama were behind in delegates, states won, and the popular vote, Slate probably wouldn’t use the term deathwatch, would they? And using terms like morbidity?