Slog News & Arts

Line Out

Music & Nightlife

« My Liquid Lunch | Anthony Minghella, RIP »

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Early Returns

posted by on March 18 at 13:39 PM

Thanks to today’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling, we might know the results of the Gregoire vs. Rossi rematch 3 months early this time (instead of two months late.) We could also know the final score on Rep. Dave Reichert (R-8) versus Democratic challenger Darcy Burner early on.

August 19 is the date for our statewide local and federal primaries. Thanks to today’s big court victory for I-872 (a top-two primary scheme passed by voters, but voided until today by the local courts), Burner and Reichert will be on the same ballot in the primary, as will Gregoire and Rossi.

Previous to today’s ruling, voters had to choose either a GOP or Democratic ballot in the primary; the top D and top R moved forward to the November showdown. That’s how we’ve been doing it for the last three years anyway. (Prior to that there was only one ballot with all the candidates; the top D and top R went through even if two Ds finished first and second.)

I guess: think of the August 19th results as really really really accurate polling data.

RSS icon Comments

1

Kill the Parties. Maybe now we could possibly have interesting congressional races in Seattle now that the Greens could probably beat the Republicans to the general election

Posted by vooodooo84 | March 18, 2008 1:51 PM
2

@1 - That was my first thought, except both the Greens and Libertarians opposed I-872, saying it reduced their chances of making it to the general election.

Posted by Mahtli69 | March 18, 2008 1:57 PM
3

Except, as usual Josh, you have made an overly simplistic and ultimately errant analysis. The voting base in an August primary will be but a fraction of the turnout for a November general election in a hotly contested presidential year.

Posted by Tony | March 18, 2008 1:59 PM
4

I miss the old choose your own candidate primaries.

The parties brought this on themselves - myself and other people tried to tell them what would happen, but they kept insisting - and now have to live with the consequences ...

And there won't be many GOP candidates that survive the August primary at the depths of the national depression this year - even in Eastern Washington.

Posted by Will in Seattle | March 18, 2008 2:03 PM
5

@2 but they still don't have a chance if they are the third party on a ballot with Rs and Ds. There are very few districts where greens or libertarians would be stronger than one of the majors, but Seattle could be one of them.

Posted by vooodooo84 | March 18, 2008 2:05 PM
6

"Kill the parties;" that's exactly what I-872 will achieve. If you think partisan affiliation was meaningless before, now anyone can call themselves anything they want in the primary, and the general election will consist in a choice between the two candidates who spent the most money on advertising.

Posted by Olo | March 18, 2008 2:09 PM
7

@4 you are kidding right? of course the Rs will get on the general ballot in Eastern Washington. Party loyalty won't suffer that much, There is enough incumbency in addition to ingrained Republican tradition to keep them winning the general let alone the primary.

Posted by vooodooo84 | March 18, 2008 2:12 PM
8

@6 So you think that is different than it is now? or 8 years ago?

Posted by vooodooo84 | March 18, 2008 2:15 PM
9

Maybe it's just because I've been doing it so differently for so long, but this seems pretty dumb to me. Here, Republicans vote for Republicans. Democrats for Democrats, and independants are SOL. And maybe I'm missing something, but that makes sense to me.

Posted by Fifty-Two-Eighty | March 18, 2008 2:18 PM
10

Along these same lines, check out the results of the Virgina open primary. Obama and Hillary both outvoted McCain.

We should just move to instant runoff with no primary.

Posted by w7ngman | March 18, 2008 2:35 PM
11

It's the Blue Tidal Wave, voodoo.

And it's a COMING 4 U!

Posted by Will in Seattle | March 18, 2008 2:49 PM
12

@8 So you think that is different than it is now? or 8 years ago?

Most fundamentally, political parties are networks of alliances. To volunteer one's time, donate one's money, or cast one's ballot for a party is to expect that those alliances will hold. If partisan affiliation is to mean anything, it should be the ability to say "Person X and I share enough political values to belong to the same party, but Person Y is not one of us." Without this right of exclusion, parties cannot control their own identities.

In the case of nominating Presidential candidtates, the parties diluted their control in 1972 by permitting primary voters to select delegates to their nominating conventions. In this respect, I agree with Will @ 4 who said that the parties brought this on themselves; by availing themselves of publicly-financed primaries, the parties became quasi-public entitites. To the degree that securing a party's nomination ceased to be about conforming to that party's political values and instead turned on massaging the press and obtaining donations to finance advertising, the less distinguishable the candidates became.

So, no, 8 years ago wasn't much different than now or 4 years from now, but the process of transforming the parties into two very large focus groups has been going on for three decades. Many people may be justifiably disillusioned by the self-perpetuating, triangulating parties we have now, but by removing entirely the parties' ability to police their own membership, Washingtonians have guaranteed that access to the general election ballot will depend solely on name-recognition, which won't be financed by the public.

Posted by Olo | March 18, 2008 3:06 PM
13

@10 I agree that the primary returns for dems were impressive when huck and romney were competitive, but the Republicans have been irrelevant for a while. why turn out if the race is essentially over

Posted by vooodooo84 | March 18, 2008 3:07 PM
14

@13 i will shut up as it looks like huck got 40% in VA

Posted by vooodooo84 | March 18, 2008 3:10 PM
15

@13, are you saying Rs weren't bothering because McCain was already the presumptive nominee? I can't remember the exactly Virginia timeline but I see what you're saying.

I wouldn't call open/top-two primary results "really really really accurate polling data" because it's still just a primary. Many will sit out because they know their candidate has enough backing to be one of the top two. Instant runoff is maybe the only thing that would eliminate this particular brand of apathy.

Posted by w7ngman | March 18, 2008 3:18 PM
16

Tony @ 3 is right that turn-out is much lighter in the primary -and much older. But if, for example, Rossi comes in 10 points behind Gregoire in the August primary, it's curtains for him. His funding will dry up and Gregoire will sail to victory in November. This, in fact, is my prediction for exactly what will happen this year.

Posted by Bill LaBorde | March 18, 2008 5:20 PM
17

So, which Obama supporters are going to run in the August primary this year against Dem pro-Clinton incumbents - and get the top two positions for Dems?

It would keep the Greens from backing Nader ....

Posted by Will in Seattle | March 18, 2008 5:25 PM
18

The Green/Libertarian/Constitution party candidates can kiss goodbye any chance of being on a November ballot after this ruling.

How that's a good thing for Democracy is beyond me.

Posted by Daniel K | March 19, 2008 12:18 AM
19

Here's hoping it leads to more moderate candidates, who have to appeal to the center of all voters, rather than just their own party's center.

And parties still have the right to assemble and put forth candidates; but those candidates have to get one of the top two spots in the primaries in order to go on to the general election. Parties are no longer guaranteed a spot in the general election, that's a far cry from denial of a right to assemble. They can still put on ads, donate money, go door-to-door etc. They just have to do it before the primaries rather than the general elections.

Now, I agree with the poster above; IRV is the way to go. I'd love to see it, and think it would be a boon for the smaller parties and for the general public.

Posted by SpookyCat | March 19, 2008 10:42 AM

Comments Closed

In order to combat spam, we are no longer accepting comments on this post (or any post more than 14 days old).