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Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Bad News for Gregoire

posted by on March 5 at 12:00 PM

Dino pulls ahead… but in a statistically insignificant kinda way.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Washington voters found Governor Christine Gregoire locked in a tight re-election campaign with Republican Dino Rossi. Four years ago, the 2004 election between the same two candidates was one of the closest elections in the state’s history.

Now, looking ahead to the fall of 2008, Rossi leads Gregoire 47% to 46%, a statistically insignificant difference. The two candidates are tied at 44% among unaffiliated voters.

I realize, of course, that a Gov. Rossi would veto the expanded domestic partnership package that Jamie Pederson and Ed Murray got through the state house and senate. But considering our dithering, largely useless Dem “super majority” in Olympia—why can’t we rein in payday loans? why can’t we ban (or tax) plastic shopping bags? why aren’t we doing something about the viaduct?—I’m finding it hard to get exercised about the possibility of Dems losing control of the governor’s mansion in Oly.

Via TPM.

RSS icon Comments

1

I'm not particularly disturbed by the news, either. Really, they (super majority) have done it to themselves. To use part of a line from Monty Python: you Democratic legislators, so fucking pompous - none of you have got any balls!

Posted by Hernandez | March 5, 2008 12:11 PM
2

Depending on who heads the national ticket, Gregoire might suffer in November. Hope I'm wrong.

Posted by sigh | March 5, 2008 12:11 PM
3

The general worthlessness of the Dems does not negate the overall loathsomeness of the Republicans. The last eight years have surely proven that while the Dems are incapable of fixing anything, the Republicans are extemely capable of fucking things up.

Posted by Providence | March 5, 2008 12:13 PM
4

what do people like about that asshole? his atavistic position on taxes or his Romney esque persona

Posted by vooodooo84 | March 5, 2008 12:13 PM
5

I have said this before and got shot down but the reality is she has been pretty lackluster, nor has she really been out in front of anything that the entire state can rally behind.

She plays too safe and the legistlature is playing it too safe as well. Why vote democratic if they do not do anything?

Posted by Andrew | March 5, 2008 12:14 PM
6

This poll is pretty suspect.


The same polls shows McCain winning against Obama and Clinton. And are we really to believe that only 7% are undecided 8 months out -- it just doesn't pass the smell test.


Rasmussen is a well known conservative pollster.


There's a lot of work to do and it will be a close election, but this poll is pretty out of whack.

Posted by vogel | March 5, 2008 12:20 PM
7

@5 - because Republicans are orders of magnitude worse.

This nonsense sounds kinda like the rationale of Nader supporters, and we can see how well that worked out on a national level.

Posted by Mr. X | March 5, 2008 12:21 PM
8

You can't say a statistically insignificant difference means he's pulling ahead, and at the same time believe that you can find out what a million voters think with a random poll of 500 of them. If you accept the mathematics that says random sample polling is meaningful, then you have to also accept the inseparable fact that statistically insignificant means insignificant.

It would be like saying you know chimps are close relatives of humans because of evolutionary theory, but you deny that any new species can evolve because the bible says so. Incoherent.

Or maybe look at it this way. It would be like a guy claiming he is 110% straight because he's married to Mrs. Larry Craig and has 3 kids, while at the same time sucking anonymous cock in airport restrooms. Fathering a 4th kid is might be kind of a straight thing to do, but it is insignificant in the face of his ongoing cock sucking. You wouldn't announce that he just got a little less gay because of the additional kid, right?

Posted by elenchos | March 5, 2008 12:24 PM
9

@7, that much worse? She won by less than 150 votes. But can you name me one thing she has done that gets her votes in Eastern Washington?

Posted by You're and Idiot | March 5, 2008 12:26 PM
10


I have to agree with the poster, and find myself almost advocating the limbaugh approach - maybe four years of hellacious GOP rule would be enough to get some truly progressive dems in office. i get so sick of how not progressive the washington democrats are, on both the state and city levels. and because they're dems, they're guaranteed to be as progressive as we're going to get.

Posted by quilsone | March 5, 2008 12:27 PM
11

@8
You can say... anything.

The point estimate has Rossi ahead. That is the supposed best estimate of the current state of affairs. The result may not be statistically significant (p-value>0.05?) but... if you're a frequentist and you're gonna make a bet...

Posted by umvue | March 5, 2008 12:41 PM
12

You of all people, Dan.

One of the benefits of a do-nothing government is that they DO NO HARM. Sure, they haven't taxed plastic bags, but they haven't mandated forehead AIDS tattoos either, or eliminated the property tax, or made birth control illegal. Rossi is controlled by RELIGIOUS KOOKS, Dan. He is your ENEMY. Do you want to see Ken Hutcherson and Tim Eyman smoking cigars in the governor's mansion?

Posted by Fnarf | March 5, 2008 12:43 PM
13

@9,

Let me count the ways.

I-605.

The Cross-Base Highway.

Gutting social services.

Tax cuts for the wealthy.

Gay marriage ban.

Sending more Seattle tax dollars to the rest of the State.

Killing state support for mass transit.

Allowing pharmacists to dispense (or not) medication based on their religious
preferences.


Grow up, already. There is a BIG difference between the D's and R's - and the notion that you can let the R's run riot and try and win an election again in 4 years totally ignores the REAL human cost that will be visited on tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of Washington State citizens.

Oh, and with 4 years for the R's to consolidate power/game election rules/raise big bucks from their corporate clients/etc/etc, there's no guarantee that the D's would win that election, either.

Posted by Mr. X | March 5, 2008 12:49 PM
14

@4,

The perpetual dumbshit, oops, I mean "nice guy," look on his face.

Posted by keshmeshi | March 5, 2008 12:53 PM
15

Mr. X @13,

I generally agree with your list, but...

Killing state support for mass transit.

Hah! If "not killing Sound Transit" qualifies as support, I guess.

Posted by MHD | March 5, 2008 1:14 PM
16

...@15 - in fact, it does. And I probably should have put a finer point on it and said public transportation rather than mass transit - though both would suffer mightily under a Rethug administration.

Anyone who thinks the status of every liberal and/or progressive policy initiative wouldn't be a whole lot worse under Rossi is deluding themselves - in a big way.

Posted by Mr. X | March 5, 2008 1:22 PM
17

What a truly ridiculous statement to make.

I get so tired of whiny liberals - and I'm talking to you, Mr. Savage, and all the hardcore partisans in this Dem primary, while we're at it - who, when things don't go 100% their way, get their panties in a bunch, and want to upset the checker boards and run away.

One thing you have to give the conservative movement credit for: They were disciplined, and they were focused on a goal. An idiotic goal, but a goal nonetheless. They knew their agenda, and they drove it home relentlessly. If a governor wasn't Neanderthal enough for them, they got another Neanderthal. They didn't just recede to the American Legion to cry in their beer.

Newsflash, Darlings: Not everyone will share your views. Ever. Not every politician will do everything you want them to do. Ever. That's the way life is. When that happens, you try to find a better politician. You don't get all pouty and whiny and say you don't want to play anymore. That's what children do, and that's what makes them so socially unpopular.


Posted by catalina vel-duray | March 5, 2008 2:44 PM
18

why can’t we rein in payday loans?

ahhh. because prentice,the ways and means committe chair is a huge backer of predatory lenders and santos and the rest of em are fine with predatory lenders, they have no interest to rein them in because theyre the biggest supporters and chopp is a pansy and a douchebag.

Posted by SeMe | March 5, 2008 2:58 PM
19

The Naderite in Dan is starting to reassert itself.

Posted by ratcityreprobate | March 5, 2008 6:33 PM

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