Annie is right to dismiss the Clinton camp’s boasts about California, New Jersey, and New York. Obama would win those reliably Blue sates against John McCain too. It’s more compelling when Clinton highlights her energetic win in Ohio (a contested swing state that’s worth an impressive 20 Electoral College votes come November).
Ohio, as Clinton said in her Tuesday night victory speech in Columbus, is a must win for any presidential candidate. And certainly, it’s up for grabs for either a Democrat or a Republican. For example, Republican George W. Bush won it in ‘04 and ‘00. Democrat Bill Clinton won it in ‘96 and ‘92. And Republican George H.W. Bush won it in ‘88. Now, Hillary Clinton has a tremendous and mobilized coalition in Ohio that could carry this rust belt swing state for the Democrats on November 4.
But Annie’s argument that Obama can make similar claims about states he won like Minnesota, Virginia, and Colorado is not as compelling as Clinton’s winning Ohio rap.
Minnesota
Minnesota, which is only worth 10 Electoral College votes—half as many as Ohio— has gone for the Democratic presidential candidate in every presidential contest over the last 20 years: ‘88 (Mike Dukakis!), ‘92, ‘96, ‘00, and ‘04. Like New York, NJ, and CA, Minnesota is already a reliable Blue state in presidential elections. Arguing that Obama will hold serve is a yawner.
To be fair: The newly sprawling Twin Cities suburbs have added some GOP momentum; Minnesota’s U.S. Senate delegation is split; and it does have a Republican governor. However, 2008 does not seem like the year the GOP is going to flip a historically deep Blue, anti-war state like Minnesota (the only state that didn’t vote for Ronald Reagan in ‘84.)
And Obama’s claim on Minnesota isn’t all that. His win in Minnesota was a caucus win. As we saw this week in Texas, caucus wins don’t necessarily reflect the popular sentiment. It’s noteworthy that Nevada, the one caucus that was made accessible to working class voters, was the one caucus where Clinton beat Obama.
Virginia
I agree that Virginia, which seems Red (check me on this, but a Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t carried it since LBJ), is actually Obama’s best asset. Virginia’s northern suburbs (outside of D.C.) are an expanding Blue bloc that could give VA to the Democrats. Virginia elected a Democratic governor in 2005, and Northern Virginia was enough of a force to elect a Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, Jim Webb, over the incumbent Republican, Sen. George Allen, in 2006. (Although, Allen’s idiotic “macaca” whopper really really helped Webb, as did Webb’s military background. Obama’s a law school professor.)
Virginia is a riskier bet than Ohio and not as valuable. It’s only worth 13 Electoral College votes. And again, Virginia went for Bush, Bush, Dole, Bush, and Bush.
Colorado
Colorado has voted Republican in every presidential election in the last 20 years (with the exception of 1992 when it went for Bill Clinton) and Republicans currently have a 100,000 registration advantage. However, there’s evidence that Colorado is shifting politically. They elected a Democratic governor in 2006 and a Democratic U.S. Senator in 2004. The Senator, Sen. Ken Salazar, is one of three Hispanics in the U.S. Senate, which is fitting, given that part of Colorado’s drift to the left is explained by the growing Latino population.
However, like Minnesota, Obama’s win in Colorado was (asterisk) a caucus win—not a primary win. Moreover, given the Latino demographic, it seems to me that Clinton—more popular with Latino voters than Obama—might be better a candidate here.
Also, Colorado is only good for 9 Electoral College votes. It’s not a major prize.
In addition to hyping Minnesota, Virginia, and Colorado, Annie also put a challenge to Clinton fans: How would Clinton wrest New Mexico and Florida from the Republicans and hold on to Pennsylvania?
Pennsylvania
I’m not convinced Pennsylvania is in danger of going Republican this year. The Keystone State has gone Blue in the last four presidential elections: ‘04, ‘00, ‘96, and ‘92. And the governor, elected to a second term in 2006, is a Democrat.
Pennsylvania’s Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, Bob Casey, as opposed to Webb in Virginia, destroyed Republican incumbent Rick Santorum in ‘06, 59 to 41.
Still, given Pennsylvania’s moderate bent (and Casey’s conservative bent, he’s pro-life), PA is considered a swing state. But as this Washington Post article explains, Pennsylvania is, like Ohio, rich Clinton turf. The New York Times agrees.
New Mexico
New Mexico, where Clinton beat Obama on Super Tuesday, is the definition of a battleground state (party registration is deadlocked). I think Clinton is best positioned to beat the GOP here in November because New Mexico has the highest Latino population of any state— at 44%.
After the Democrats won New Mexico in 1992, 1996, and 2000, Bush stopped their streak and won it by 6000 votes in 2004. Bush famously won over Latino voters nationally, upping the GOP take to an astonishing 40 percent (up from 21 percent in 1996.)
As lots of pundits are pointing out, the Democrats should win back the Latino vote in 2008. The GOP jeopardized Bush’s gains with its wild anti-immigration rhetoric. Clinton, who has proven to be popular with Latino voters, is the candidate who can capitalize on this and bring NM back into the Democratic column. Obama has not been as successful with Latinos. John McCain split with his party on the issue, so he could actually hold New Mexico if he faced Obama rather than Clinton.
Florida
With 27 Electoral College votes, Florida is definitely a prize. And the Democrats have only won the presidential contest in Florida once (‘96) in the last 20 years. However, as recently as 2005, Florida had two Democratic Senators. One of them, the popular Bob Graham, was hawkish on national security … like Clinton.
With its senior citizen demographic (the state with the largest population of voters over 65 according to the New York Times) and a large Hispanic bloc, it seems to me that Clinton, who has dominated both categories, has a better chance in Florida than Obama. If the Democrats decide to schedule a “do-over” in Florida, we’ll find out if I’m right.
In summary: Add Ohio (where Clinton beat Obama decisively—54 to 44), + Pennsylvania (which looks a lot like Ohio), +Florida (where Clinton kinda won already and has an advantage with the demographics) +New Mexico (where Clinton can energize Latino voters like she did in California and Texas) and you’ve got 73 Electoral College votes.
Obama’s “big” swing state takes—Colorado, Virginia, and Minnesota—are worth 32 Electoral College votes. Sure, it’s silly for Clinton to sell New York, New Jersey, and California as potential Democratic pick ups if she gets the nomination (although I think it’s legit for her to hype her success with Latinos in California), but Colorado, Virginia, and Minnesota? Really?