Comments on Okay. Sorry About That. Now Back to the Program.

My bet is they come out of Super Tuesday with less than 100 delegates separating them.

The surge is working!

Washington could indeed be a big focus - wow - my caucus hooey/flooey/blah might be important.

Exciting stuff as long as we remember that is ALL about ending the BUSH years.

Oh, I forgot, remember said the Naderites, "there is no difference."

God, how they fucked America with a four word slogan.

@1
Agreed.
(But also: that doesn't count superdelegates, or the potential delegates from Michigan or Florida).

Next steps:

2/9 our caucuses and LA primary

DC-Md-Va on the 12th

2/19: WI and HI.

Note a whole week of campaigning focused on WI.

3/4 TX RI OH and lil' Vt.
et cetera

Clinton and Obama together look kind of like a goofy carrot. Edwards looks like half a dick.

Hillary has to deal a killing blow Tuesday or she won't win the nomination. A close victory won't cut it. The rest of the primary calendar is very favorable terrain for Obama and he's outraised her three to one in January. (And speculation is that she's near broke after Super Tuesday given her spending rate.)

If she can't end the race on Tuesday, Obama will end it by March. She's got 48 hours to pull out a NH-style surprise.

Error bars would be useful.

@6
Nice cheerleading.

So, if she comes out of Tuesday when about 1600 delegates are up for grabs, but she only gets 25-200 more than Obama, her campaign is tanking.

Even though that would increase her current lead among delegates and position her to win a another huge chunk thru a simple majority vote on the floor to seat MI and FL.

OK, I now understand: Winning = losing.

More kool aid, please.

Just got an email from one of my inlaws in Arizona. Hillary was in Democratic stronghold Tuscon and attracted a whopping 4,300 supporters. Well, most of them were supporters. There was a strong Ron Paul contingent.

Gimmie an H! Gimmie an I! Gimmie an L!...

well, you can see where all Edwards' people went.

CHZA@5:

Edwards looks like half a dick.

Which is funny, given that in reality he's a complete dick.

Edwards is ambrosia from his locks to his toes - ask any gay man with taste and intuition. Sure, he is a bit fey, I think it is charming.

And his dick, all you straight men are referring to his cock somehow, right? Well his dick seen only in the shadows of cloth, if it is half as sweet as his smile and round butt, it will suit me to a tee.

Hope he does not body shave.

He would be a GREAT attorney general ..... just great. How many would go to prison of the current gang with Edwards stroking his pole to the max? Many, many.

@ 12. Do what now?

Josh is, once again, an idiot.

elenchos@9: Is 4300 a lot? I have no idea because I don't know Tuscon.

@8: Sorry, but Obama has the most pledged delegates. Superdelegates don't count for shit. If Obama walks into the convention with more pledged delegates, he'll be the nominee. Any other outcome would tear the party apart and guarantee a Hillary loss. No superdelegate is stupid enough to go down with the ship. It'd be career suicide.

Now, let's look at Super Tuesday. It was supposed to be Hillary's big day remember? Her name recognition and financial advantage were going to rack up a huge delegate lead in CA, NY, NJ, and MA and force her opposition out of the race even if they were victorious elsewhere. Now, the walls are closing in on her in those states. She might even lose CA and New York City. Furthermore, her money has started drying up. There's a reason she's picking and choosing her battles for advertising (fyi, these battles apparently necessitate the inclusion of New York and Arkansas) while Obama is up on TV in pretty much every Feb 5 state.

This is well below expectations. Even if she comes out ahead slightly on delegates, Obama is already playing the long game beyond Feb 5. The longer this race goes on, the more her advantages cease to matter.

The rest of February will be brutal for her. Not a single good state for her.

Ohio on March 5th might prove to be better... If she can safford it. However, she gets still creamed in Texas, RI and Vermont.

After that's a series of mostly individual contests that play to Obama's strengths with Hillary making her last stand in PA.

If Hillary Clinton doesn't seal the deal on Tuesday, she won't get another chance. She's bet nearly everything on it.

The light green squiggly line and the dark green squiggly line seem to be both convergent, and divergent.

What's the margin of error?

I made calls for Obama to California over the weekend and I was shocked how many people still claimed to be "undecided" or "totally open". I guess I do live in a pretty political bubble. Anyway, I did note that two of my undecideds (women both) amended their undecidedness with "I won't vote for Hillary Clinton" one adding and "you can write that down!"

Clinton supporters have valid, compelling reasons why Clinton would be a better president--and I don't challenge those. However, I don't get much Electoral College strategy on how she's going to win in Nov. Who is going to vote for Hillary who didn't vote for Kerry in 2004?

Obama supporters all have an answer to that question: young people who didn't vote in 04, independants in Swing States (including the people who vote not on policy but on nebulous things like "who is more presidential") and some disgruntled moderate Republicans. You can argue its a flawed strategy...or naive...but that's what Obama supporters counting on for right or wrong.

I ask that to Clinton supporters and I never really get a straight answer, instead I get something about "experience" or "don't underestimate the Clintons". It's as if the Electoral College doesn't exist and this election won't be decided in 5-10 Swing States. I don't hear any strategy. Do they think repubican women will support Hillary at the last minute? Independants? Who? We know the Democrat will get the cities over 500,000 whether its Obama or Hillary, the liberal base is as energized as it ever was, who is the "new" factor that will change the game from 04? I really want to know, and I don't mean that in a snarky way.

After 00 and 04 I have become strategy/Electoral College obsessed and that (partially) is what tipped me to Obama but I don't see that with my Clinton friends. I have no doubt Hillary could indeed pull 51%-58% of a popular nationwide referendum. But we don't elect our president that way, and I see less recognition of this on the Clinton side.

What does this graph tell us? Not a single thing. Nearly every election tightens up to be "to close to call" just prior to the election. Frankly, I think it is enigineered that way for mor "drama" on television.

But my absentee ballot for our Primary is mailed and I voted for Obama. And I will caucus for Obama this Saturday.

@19:

the graph tells us that edwards supporters are breaking decisively for obama.

but that clinton still maintains a lead.

i see nothing good coming of her nomination. it will mean a mccain presidency. just to be sure, i re-confirmed my parent's irrational hatred of hillary clinton on saturday. to quote my 71-year old father midwestern: "she stayed married to that asshole just so she could be president" (never mind that mccain is demonstrably an adulterer, and hillary is not). they'll vote mccain if the dem is clinton. if it is obama, they'll break for the dems. it will be a landslide.

"the youth" talk about voting, but they don't show up. all 70-year olds vote.

Great post @ 16.

That about sums up the reality of the situation...

Reality Check

Hmm, could a lot of Edwards/Kucinich supporters have had Obama as their 2nd choice?

18. Not every voter who voted for Dubya is going to vote for McCain.