Its pretty safe to bet against the MSM's lines on these things

Instead of thinking each candidate is at the mercy of which demographics like them best, perhaps each is going out and winning over (or failing to win) whomever they need for a particular contest.

And one of the two campaigns is a little better than the other and this kind of engineering.

I am s-o-o-o thankful that, after tomorrow, I won't have to deal with this mind-numbing over-analysis of "what it really means" every time Obama takes a shit.

Another interesting trend is that Obama does really well in really white and really black states but not so well in kinda gray (20 or 30% black) states.

Finally a chance for a lot of white Americans to "prove" they aren't racist!

I predict that the O candidate will get far more votes than the Hill candidate, and that the analysis will take up 5 pages of the Sunday Seattle Times.

@ 4: Like Georgia and South Carolina?

You have latinos in WA? How many?

so only one "older woman" is a convincing trend?
@8- in yakima. and at china harbor on salsa night.

Mike, Seattle and western Wa has a pretty small minority population, but central and eastern Wa is totally Latinoriffic.

El 9% de la poblacion es Latino.
Para calcular participacion en los "caucuses," se deberia disminuir este porcentaje por ... como la mitad, tal vez. Por razon de juventud, falta de documentos, Y otras razones. Entonces, digamos que el 5% de los asistiendo los caucuses seran latinos.

Bueno: Josh quiere dar el enfasis en el 5% -- y ignorar al 95%. Y va a descubrir un narrativo latino, sin los "polls" de las salidas y sin cualquier informacion previa sobre los niveles de apoyo latino en este Estado para Sra. Clinton o el Sr. Obama.
(Fijate: el Sr. Obama no ha visitado al Yakima o las partes centrales del Estado...donde la mayoria de la gente Latina viven).

Es otro ejemplo del poder de la prensa para "crear" un narrativo, donde no existe en realidad.
Por que no va a escribir sobre el 95% y no el 5%? Para vender mas periodicos cuando, se debe dar enfasis sobre asuntos de raza. Exactamente como hace el National Enquirer.

Que barbaridad.

@5

Actually, I think it’s a function of how central race issues are to the politics of the state in question. If there are enough blacks to make race issues politically important, but not enough to carry a candidate, it’s a losing equation for Obama. I expect to see this effect amplified (to Obama’s determent) in the general election as the black voting blocks in more racially diverse states are further diluted by the whiter or browner republican and independent voters in those states. I imagine that if you graphed percentage of votes for Obama over the percentage of blacks per state, you would see an interesting inverse bell curve. Question is, what are the results if you put that bell curve against the general population in a national race?…

Disculpe -- que se elimine "cuando" en el penultimo parrafo.

As far as Latinos breaking for Obama in WA, I'll believe it when I see the demographic breakdown. It will also be interesting as to whether the trend against Obama will continue among Asians in WA as well.

I don't buy the prediction, though I'd be happy to see it happen.
I think Hillary does well with Latinos because they are less apt to be reliving the culture wars of the 60s, which seems to be the underlying motivation of the "Hillary Haters" who see her as that long-haired, feminist, anti-war, college girl that she was in the 60s/70s. I've also heard that she's been a long-time supporter of farm workers, though I don't know much about that.
On the flip side of the equation, I think Obama does poorly with Latinos in part due to racism, whether overt or subconscious. The most recent immigrants in this country--whoever they are at the time--always feel like they're in competition with blacks at the bottom of the social ladder. Back in the 1850s and 1860s, Irish Catholics (my own ethnic group) were solid Democrats united in their opposition to the abolition of slavery. Not much has changed, just the identity of the new group at the bottom of the ladder.
Just my two cents...

@11
Hecho: Señora Clinton no ha visitado Yakima o las partes centrales del estado cualquiera

Success with Latinos? the way he was supposed to have success with Latinos with the great Kennedy endorsement in California.

Josh: being only half-latino, if your prediction is correct it will pose some interesting physical challenges for me at the caucus tomorrow.

@11 - PLV!

Snow white Seattle will go for Obama. More racially diverse parts of the state will go for Billary. Racism between minorities is much more deeply entrenched then the racism of the majority.

The rural vote has turned out for Obama since day one -- that's what he got in Iowa, and in New Hampshire, Clinton won the cities, Obama in the rural areas. Suburbs I think can go either way. This isn't a new trend at all.

These are the same rural people you find in Idaho, North Dakota, etc. The thing is, there aren't very many of them. In ND, they can carry the day, but in most states, they get swamped by the blue-collars in the cities.

In WA, they're going to go for Obama east of the mountains, whichever way the Latinos go; and Seattle is probably stronger for Obama than most US cities. But it'll be real interesting seeing how the suburbs go -- which means pretty much the whole of Western WA from B-ham to Vancouver -- and also the depressed mill towns on the peninsula. I'm guessing they're going to be solidly Clinton. It's going to be fun to watch.

People in one state may vote differently from people in other states even thouugh they're the same ethnicity???


Hold on people, this is going to be a wild ride.

Fnarf, there are not many taco stands in New Hampshire. Have you been to Yakima lately? Obama’s only hope with “rural” Washington is if they are all here illegally (and thus can't vote)…

I predict Latinos in Western Washington going for Obama at a huge rate... East of the mountains, who knows?

Josh, I strongly object to your break with Stranger reporting tradition and speaking with a member of the general public. Let's get back on track: how does Annie Wagner think Latinos are likely to vote?

I'm sure to your eyes the presence of three Mexican farm laborers means Yakima is crawling with illegals, YGTBKM, but that's not the way it works. Most of Eastern WA is pretty similar to Idaho -- they have Latinos in Idaho, too, you know. And whether those Latinos go Clinton is up in the air. The much more numerous whites are going to go solid for Obama.

I expect Clinton to do best in places like Vancouver, Kelso/Longview, Aberdeen/Hoquiam, Centralia/Chehalis, Everett, Marysville, Arlington, Mt. Vernon....

@6: For that prediction to come true, the Times would have to have 5 pages of reporting on Saturday local news in its Sunday edition. The Times frequently meets this threshhold, but that's in the Sports section.

Josh--I just talked to a young Latino supporting Clinton. I also talked to two young women supporting Hillary. Neither gave a rats ass what SEIU said. I think Obama is in trouble.

As outlined in my email, the only thing that will give the Latino vote to Obama is a series of free Morrissey concerts.

@15, the same could be said for Asians as well, particularly based on my experience in the 19 years I've lived in seattle.

A lot of Latinos I know are voting Obama. But not as much the active Dem party insiders.

Nobody knows Latinos like Will in Seattle (read Fremont) and Josh Feit (read Capitol Hill)

@11
Si.

Y que??

Estas jugando "neener, neener"??
Hice un punto particular: si Obama no ha visitado a Yakima, por que podriamos concluir que, de repente, va a ganar mas apoyo latino?
En contraste, Hillaria no tiene que visitar a Yakima para darnos razon para concluir que ella si tendra gran apoyo entre los latinos. Ya tenemos la evidencia de CA. Quise hacer un punto --no jugar neener neener -- mi amigo.

I suspect Latinos are largely more conservative than the general populace, I know Asians are.

Conservatives, generally, don't like change. They like order, method. They are more linear.

It makes perfect sense Latinos/Hispanics and Asians would lean Clinton. They represent establishment, order, known quantity. They are more conservative.

I suspect that changes generationally with immigrant populations. Younger, more integrated, westernized would be likely to divest from their more conservative elders just like whites do generationally.

I really don't see the big deal. It is each candidates job to reach as many voters as possible without regard to pigeonhole.

The one that does that more successfully will win.

It's a test! ;0

@31 - yeah, it's not like I spent Christmas with about 20 of my Latino relatives, or my brother-in-law is Hispanic, or some of my friends ... or I worked on farms as a kid ...

oh, wait, that is true.

Maybe, tiptoe timmy, you need to realize many of us aren't as typical as you think we are ...

Look, a truism in genetic studies is that more of us are multi-ethnic on the West Coast. Maybe you should open your eyes ...