Comments on Full Farce

Um, correct me if I am wrong, but aren't the vote totals just delegate totals, which are predetermined by the size of the precinct and previous voter turnout?

Yeah--I'm kind of curious how the math takes a 200,000 plus turnout and winnows it to 21,000 votes....

@2: Thanks for asking. I am pleased to provide you with your answer. What happens is:

* The total vote count from the various caucii (a word? No? Well I'm going to use it anyway!) are tallied. In this case, let's say they amounted to a total of 207,535.

* This total is then run through a complex formula, consisting of the following steps:

1. Divide vote total by number of steelhead in the Hiram Chittenden fish ladder at 1PM on caucus day (32 fish, so result is 6,485).

2. Multiply by number of Ron Paul signs at NW corner of 45th Street on ramp to I-5 (that number is 22, so result is 142,680).

3. Add number of sullen baggers WITH piercings at Roosevelt Whole Foods on duty at 1PM on caucus day (3, so result is 142,683).

4. Subtract predicted number of bankrupt condominium developers in 2008 (13, so result is 142,670).

5. Finally, divide by number of bums, bindlestiffs and mountebanks hanging out in front of Greg Kucera Gallery on a given Saturday night (4.5 -- includes one man with no lower body, pulling self by hands on wheeled cart -- for a result of 31,704).

I hope this helps.

The Republican's split their delegates. Part of them are used in the caucuses, and their votes are determined there. The other part of the delegates is determind by the popular vote on Tuesday.

I don't know how that changes things. I'm too hungover to care much more than that.

20. Who decides how many delegates my precinct has? The Washington State Democratic Party decides by looking at how many people are registered to vote in your precinct and how many voted in your precinct in the previous presidential election in 2004 for the Democratic candidate. From here.

Don't forget that for the Republicans, the primary actually counts for something. Half their delegates, in fact.

That means that hundreds of thousands of Republicans can, if they want, stop in any polling place any time all day long on Tuesday, and spend 5 minutes voting. Or just mail their ballot in any time it's convenient in the weeks leading up to next Tuesday.

And it will actually count for something. What a novel concept.

The numbers don't represent precincts, they represent delegates. Seriously, you were just there yesterday and you didn't notice this? Your precinct, like mine, had a fixed number of delegates to apportion, and apportioned them on the basis of how many people there were for each candidate. Didn't you hear your precinct officer announce the delegate totals? And then again, after the horse-trading portion?

Those delegate counts are what is being reported in the news. You can't find any totals for the number of people, because there AREN'T ANY.

And yes, Republicans have different rules for the number of delegates. They have fewer delegates across the board. Notice that to win the nomination, the Republican only has to get 1,191 delegates to win, while the Democrat has to get 2,025. That could represent a lot less people voting, or a lot more -- the delegate total doesn't change.

It's not THAT confusing. Really.

@7,
FNARF has it correct. It's delegates. It's important to say "precinct delegates" though, because soon—at the county and state level, those delegates will be winnowed down.

The PI is a little confused too. They identify the numbers as precincts.

I got that--I was just wondering if it's a straight ratio--one delegate per 100 who turn out, or something more arcane.

It's something more arcane.

I was wondering why only 31,000 democrats showed up to caucus.

@9: No, it's not a constant ratio. Delegates for the Ds, at least, are assigned to precincts according to the number of people in that precinct who voted for Kerry in the 2004 general election. So say a precinct gets 5 delegates. If 5 people show up, 4 for Obama and 1 for Hillary, they each get to be a delegate. But if 20 people show up, 16 for Obama and 4 for Hillary, then the 16 Obama supporters elect 4 delegates and the 4 Hillary supporters elect 1 delegate. Either way, you end up with 5 delegates total. You can't derive a turnout estimate from the number of precinct delegates.

Also worth noting is that the Democratic Party delegate process is a "three tier" process.

People elected as delegates yesterday have been elected to the second tier, in larger counties such as King these are the legislative district conventions.

In many counties outside the Puget Sound region they will attend county conventions and split up by LD to elect delegates to the next level.

At those second tier events, people will be elected to the Congressional District conventions, which is the third and final tier. At those CD conventions, delegates are elected to the national convention in Denver.

There are also some "at large" delegates selected at the state convention.

Okay, it's somewhat confusing, but just remember delegates keep moving up the chain until they reach the third tier. And one does not have to start as a delegate at the bottom to become a delegate to the next level. In other words, any registered voter willing to do so could show up and run for delegate at an LD convention to go to the CD convention.

This is important because we don't yet know what will happen in the national Clinton-Obama race. Delegates elected yesterday need to be prepared to see it through the next level, and some smaller number will need to be prepared to see it through to the CD level at the very least. Lord help us if we're fighting over a few at-large delegates at a state convention.

Same precincts for both parties -- but no guarantee that every R caucus here will have at least one R show up ... or that every D caucus east of the mountains will have at least one D show up.

Some cycles, whole (small, red) counties have gone without Democratic organization.

Also, we will know the attendance totals. Sign-in sheets are forwarded up the chain and databased.

(Capture of this contact information is a major motivator behind the caucus system, BTW.)

Finally, it's an excellent time to be a Republican for a week. Those who have not already mailed their mail-in ballots can help put Huckabee over the top ... or give Ron Paul a fighting chance at national convention seats.

It's so hard to decide.

If you look at all the pics of the GOP caucus - you'll see many of a room with at least ten precincts in a small room at three or four tables.

They have half their delegates from their caucus - but only if enough people show up to be delegates. If fewer show up, they get fewer delegates.

Dems turned out massively, so you had things like 190 people electing 10 delegates - whereas the GOP had a precinct with 10 delegates and only 5 people showing up ....

Ain't caucus fun!

The two parties do their own process however the fuck they want. So yeah, they probably have less delegates per precint. Considering my precinct only got 3 Dem delegates, I wonder how many Repub delegates it gets.

Overall nationally they have half the delegates the Dems do. Dems, I guess, like having bigger conventions.

Plus that total number includes the 800 Dem superdelegates.

Here. CNNIYF.

Here's the skinny on determining a precinct's delegate count on the Democratic side. It's the greater of:

{registered voters as of the 2004 general election] / 175

or

{votes for Kerry in 2004} / 50

In both cases, round the quotient up.

Take my precinct, for example. At the time of the 2004 general election, there were 590 registered voters in the precinct, of whom 454 voted for Kerry. Under the "voters" criterion, we'd get 590/175=3.37 --> 4 delegates. Under the "Democrats" criterion, we'd get 454/50=9.08 --> 10 delegates. The latter is larger, and that's how many delegates we elected on Saturday.