Comments on First WA Poll Since October Says...

Best news I've heard all night!

I'm a big fan of polls, but the same "among those who say they will caucus" filter in this poll shows Romney beating McCain. Riiiiiiight.

true, but this line makes me wonder:

"Voters who said they were neither Democrats nor Republicans, and who therefore would not be eligible to caucus, were not asked a candidate preference."

As we know, you don't have to be a D or R - just say you're one for the purpose of the caucus...

...but if you don't have a party affiliation, are you jazzed enough about any candidate to go to a caucus for the purpose of voting?

@2

Eh. I suppose, Sven. The thing is, all the Republicans I know despise McCain. Maybe he has the 'mo', but still. The fucking hate him. Mitt is truly one of them, and in their hearts they know it.

It's going to be close: don't count Mitt out, because he does truly represent the heart and soul of the GOP. It's a false and filthy soul, that has lied so many times it doesn't even know it's own name, but still. It's a soul that looks at Mitt and sees itself reflected in it's truest form.

If the GOP nominated McCain, it would be a charade on everyone's part.

e@4, I sooooo hope you're right. Romney would be the greatest gift we could hope for. I just can't believe the Xians would support a Mormon.

I'm confused about the push poll allegation. A push poll generally means political propaganda disguised as an impartial poll (ie, "Do accusations that candidate X molests horses affect your likelihood to vote for candidate X?").

What misinformation is SurveyUSA providing here, and what outcome are they trying to push?

@2: Not entirely unreasonable. Caucuses are supposed to benefit party insiders (Romney, not McCain), and Washington is more than 3% Mormon (self-identified Rs almost definitely more likely to be Mormon). Rs have the option to vote in the primary and not have to commit the time to caucusing; many may choose to do one and not the other. Plus, Romney has raised more than twice as much money as McCain in Washington--a sign that he has the dedicated support necessary to turn out caucus-goers.

@3: It appears the survey asked whether people "considered themselves" Ds or Rs, which is exactly the pledge Ds are asked to sign at the caucus and is less stringent than the pledge Rs are asked to sign. But I agree, the question could have been worded better.

I'm not alleging it's an actual push poll; clearly, they're trying, however bumblingly, to provide good stats for their sponsor (KING-TV). However, asserting that the Ds are holding a primary--a piece of misinformation--might lead people to vote in the primary and not caucus.

It wouldn't have been a push poll if the callers knew the circumstances around the primaries this yea, but 80% makes it look like they don't

Fair enough, Annie. I still don't think it counts as a push poll unless we loosen the definition to a huge degree, but it would clearly have been better worded as "Washington will hold Republican and Democratic primaries..."

Still, the whole primary/caucus thing is so confusing and asinine to start with, I think anyone who *does* understand the confusion is unlikely to be further confused by the wording, and anyone who *does not* know what a mess we have would be unlikely to be educated by proper wording.

Heck, SurveyUSA may have tested with wording like "Separately, Washington state will hold a Democratic primary which the Democratic party wants nothing to do with, preferring instead to use the caucus ten days earlier,...", and found that it turned 4 minute polling phone calls into 30 minute voter education sessions.

Thanks!

When I worked on a congressional campaign in New Mexico, we were told to ignore polls from SurveyUSA, as they consistently used poor methodology. Of course, they consistently also had our candidate down (we lost narrowly).

They asked these questions:

Q Washington's Democratic and Republican parties will hold precinct CAUCUSES on Saturday, February 9. Will you attend your precinct caucus?

Q Separately, Washington's Democratic and Republican parties will hold PRIMARIES on Tuesday, February 19. Will you vote in the primary?

Chalk it up more to the frustratingly pointless and confusing primary.

We're looking at massive turnout at the Dem Caucus locations this Saturday.

Because that's where all the delegates are elected at.

Annie --

Get with the program. Every slightest shred of asserted evidence is to proclaimed as further evidence of the certitude of your position, no matter how dubious the claim and/or data.

Wander over to ECB's desk for a lesson or two.

I just hope both the caucuses and the primary go the same way, otherwise people are going to be confused, pissed off, and burned.

SUSA's generally highly accurate. It galls me a little bit, thanks to the CA results (Zogby will again be shown to be totally worthless), but I do like these WA results.