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Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Blowout?

posted by on February 19 at 16:35 PM

From the National Review

First Word on Wisconsin Exits

I’m hearing that after two waves of data, Wisconsin looks like a blowout in favor of Obama, in the neighborhood of 60 percent to 40 percent.

RSS icon Comments

1

Two points to keep in mind:

(a) NRO are raving mad wingbat kooks, not a reliable source of anything except aimless bile; and
(b) this interpretation assumes that demographic and philosophical trends are the same as they were a week or a month ago, which might not be true -- i.e., Obama might be winning more blue-collars, Clinton might be winning more youth, etc. Or not.

I'll wait for actual numbers, myself.

Posted by Fnarf | February 19, 2008 4:40 PM
2

Interesting. I heard it was really close going in.

I guess the economics arguments are just reminding people about NAFTA and WTO support by Sen Clinton in the past ...

Posted by Will in Seattle | February 19, 2008 4:42 PM
3

Preliminary Wisconsin Exit Poll Results Among Democrats
Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
Families with income under 50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
Independents: Obama 63%, Clinton 34%
Seniors: Clinton 60%, Obama 39%
Top quality — experience: Clinton 95%, Obama 5%
Union households: Clinton 50%, Obama 49%

Exult, ye Obama supporters.

Oh btw: via Fox.

Posted by unPC | February 19, 2008 4:45 PM
4

Well, seeing as the polls are open for just over one more hour, I'll wait until they close. Polls are crap.

Posted by Fitz | February 19, 2008 4:49 PM
5

Gotta love the consistently unprincipled characters at NRO. They have no shame in leaking exit poll data, or in doing anything else. (I appreciate that about them; at least with respect to the early exit poll data.)

Posted by George | February 19, 2008 4:49 PM
6

@3: Don't exult ye too much based on those exits. A 51/49 split among women won't produce a 60/40 win for Obama. If that's accurate, it looks more like Missouri.

Posted by CG | February 19, 2008 4:50 PM
7

Actually, CG, it would produce just exactly that, if previous trends hold. Obama has always had a massive edge among men. But yeah, let's wait and see.

Posted by Fnarf | February 19, 2008 4:56 PM
8

60%-40% isn't a blowout. 67%-32%? *That's* a motherfucking blowout.

Posted by Big Sven | February 19, 2008 5:03 PM
9

60/40 = blowout

Posted by McG | February 19, 2008 5:10 PM
10

either way sven, that would be bad news for clinton

Posted by Bellevue Ave | February 19, 2008 5:11 PM
11

Eh...I'm on the ground here, and it *feels* like it's going to be close. So as much as I want to, I'll believe that margin when I see it.

Posted by shantih | February 19, 2008 5:11 PM
12

Yay! Cheeseheads <3 Obama.

Posted by tsm | February 19, 2008 5:15 PM
13

@7: That's true in pre-election polling and states Clinton has won. But if you look at primaries that Obama has won, he's usually wins women and men by a similar margin (CT was an exception, but that was only a 4-pt win). In his 60/40's he wins both men and women by big margins, not with 50/50 women and 75/25 men.

Posted by CG | February 19, 2008 5:16 PM
14

I don't see how a 10% difference constitutes a blowout.

Posted by Greg | February 19, 2008 5:17 PM
15

20% difference greg, 20%

Posted by Bellevue Ave | February 19, 2008 5:22 PM
16

@14: If it was the fall election, it would definitely be classified as a blowout.

Posted by What's the diff? | February 19, 2008 5:22 PM
17

20 point margin would be a blowout.

5 point margin is usually called by the media as a "decisive victory" in elections.

Posted by Will in Seattle | February 19, 2008 5:41 PM
18

heh.

Posted by RonK, Seattle | February 19, 2008 5:59 PM
19

man, the exit polls are not looking good for clinton

Posted by Bellevue Ave | February 19, 2008 6:06 PM
20

Ouch.

Smackdown.

It's all over but the crying Billary.

Posted by Reality Check | February 19, 2008 6:10 PM
21

Fox is showing Clinton and Obama speeches.

Even they know McCain is yesterday's news.

Posted by Will in Seattle | February 19, 2008 6:53 PM
22

I see you're as gracious in victory as you are in defeat, Reality Check.

At least you're consistent.

Posted by Big Sven | February 19, 2008 7:10 PM
23

Heard an excellent reason for supporting Hillary at my caucus. And that is, that Obama doesn't even get under the skin of the right-wing assholes. (Plus, they'd feel all smug about how a black man is president, so that would somehow justify piling on minorities again.) But President Hillary would have them dying of strokes right and left. It would be nice for the wingnuts to experience over the next eight years the same spike in blood pressure I've personally experienced the past seven years every time I hear the President speak. Just sayin'.

Posted by kk | February 19, 2008 7:36 PM
24

@23 - or it would motivate enough of them to vote for mccain and cost us the election. and i think the experience you're describing was what republicans experienced under bill clinton. so in a way, bill clinton tweaked them out so much they organized and muscled george w bush through.

the thing about the republicans is they are demoralized. about the only way they'll vote en masse is if they got to vote against a clinton.

if joe lieberman was our presidential candidate running against olympia snow or something i wouldn't want to vote for him because he's a d-bag.

but i'd vote for joe "d-bag" lieberman if he was running against jeb bush.

i'd say the animosity we have for lieberman is the same that most conservatives have for mccain. they don't think he's a real conservative (just like i think liberman is a republican).

hillary is about the only thing that could save the republicans this go round.

fuck that!

Posted by some dude | February 19, 2008 8:54 PM

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