Comments on 7 PM: Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and Utah Thread

Utah for Romney? Those crazy Mermans will vote for anybody.

MSNBC just called N.Dakota and Utah for Obama. He'll probably win Idaho too.

The fact that Obama is currently well ahead in Idaho, Utah and N Dakota, just blows me away. I feel like I've been transported through and space/time warp.

I think Romney was the only one on the ballot in Utah.

Alright, who's the jokester in Utah that voted for McCain?

Keep in mind that Bill Clinton came in 3rd in Utah behind Bush and Perot.

The Washington post calls 5 States/40 delegates for Obama and 6 wins/28 Delegates for Clinton.

If Obama hangs tough tonight and nearly splits the delegates, he'll be home free. Every week he gets stronger and Clinton gets weaker. She's been coasting on name recognition.

Next up WA, eventually OH, TX and FL. He's been cleaning up in the South. I'm no math major, but he will only need something like 55% of those big state delegates to put him over the top.

He needs a powerful Latino to go to bat for him this week. He needs a latino Oprah.

Did Mike Gravel forget to drop out of the race or something?

Oops didn't mean FL. It's off the table.

My very rough count (percentages in called states times delegates) puts them virtually even -- 473-468 Clinton as of 7:30.

Obama has consistently won almost all the rural farmer and rancher vote, hence North Dakota and so forth. These states barely count in the totals, though; ND has 13 delegates, New York 232.

California's going to be fucking huge.

Yes, Fnarf. And it's important to note that he is winning in places that do not have large African American populations.

Obama has now won ten states, Clinton has won seven. In delegates, my estimate is now Obama 565, Clinton 537.

To see how the delegates matter, consider Missouri and Idaho. Missouri has 72 delegates, Idaho a mere 18. Clinton's leading Missouri, Obama won Idaho. But Clinton's lead is paper-thin, and is a net gain of only one or two delegates as it now stands. In Idaho, the split is 14-4 -- which means Obama's gain is larger here than his loss in Missouri.

And he's gaining in Missouri. Some uncounted St. Louis area precincts are breaking 90% or more for Obama.

All of this is overshadowed by the looming giant of California, though. 370!

Fnarf, MSN.com numbers are much less than half of what you're giving. Are you extrapolating based on percentages?

Obama wins in states like Utah, Idaho and North Dakota because he makes those voters feel worthwhile. I think they believe Obama is genuine about a 50-state campaign and a united America.