My wild guesses are as follows:
Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Actor in a Leading Role: Daniel Day Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Actress in a Leading Role: Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)—this is not necessarily the conventional wisdom, and I think the role was written without nuance, but Julie Christie already has an Oscar, and Away from Her was such a quiet movie. I also think people will feel guilty for not voting for Persepolis in the animated feature category—since it wasn’t nominated for foreign film—and will try to make it up to the Frenchies here.
Actress in a Supporting Role: I almost want to say Saoirse Ronan (Atonement), because Oscar voters haven’t given it to a kid since Anna Paquin, and who doesn’t love an Irish accent? But nobody agrees with me. And besides, everybody loves a crossdresser. Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There).
Actor in a Supporting Role: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Directing: Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody (Juno)
Adapted Screenplay: The Coen Bros again (No Country for Old Men)
Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Animated Short: I’ve actually seen all of these. Madame Tutli-Putli is gorgeous, but fairly dark for Oscar tastes. Still, you have to admire the animation, and—unlike Peter and the Wolf—it looks wonderful in film stills.
Documentary Feature: No End in Sight, to make up for the fact that the many war-themed narrative features didn’t make a dent in the prestige nominations, and because Sicko is kind of unsatisfying.
Documentary Short: I think Stranger Genius Award winner James Longley really has a chance this year. But I don’t want to jinx him. Elderly yet openminded Oscar voters want to make a statement about gay rights: Freeheld.
Live Action Short: These were all bad. I’m going to go with the lachrymose At Night, even though it’s a pain to sit through. The others are just too cheesy.
Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer (Atonement)
Cinematography: I’m going to go with two-time winner Janusz Kaminski for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly—who wrote me an angry email when I partially attributed the blissed-out look of the film to the director. There’s a passionate lobbyist. NCFOM can’t win everything, There Will Be Blood’s Robert Elswit is this year’s Emmanuel Lubezki, and the flashiest scene in Atonement—the long Dunkirk Steadycam shot—is inert.
Costume Design: Atonement, which will be such a fuck you to Elizabeth: The Golden Age.
Film Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum, because bestest means mostest, and the Coens are hiding under a pseudonym.
Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters—voting for the Israeli movie that muscled out The Band’s Visit would be bad form, and the others are wacky.
Makeup: La Vie en Rose’s surprisingly effective old age makeup
Music (Score): Dario Marianelli (Atonement)—flashy but not bombastic
Music (Song): “Falling Slowly,” Once
… and the total crapshoots:
Sound Editing: No Country for Old Men
Sound Mixing: Transformers
Visual Effects: Transformers
Am I right, or am I crazy? Be here for David Schmader’s liveblog of the Oscars, tomorrow at 5 pm.