2008 Was Washington State Ahead of the Obama Curve?
posted by on January 5 at 11:43 AM
Back when polls showed Hillary Clinton with a comfortable lead—back when she was the “presumptive nominee”—Barack Obama was raising three times as much money in Washington state as Clinton. Eli Sanders wrote this column about the first signs of an Obama’s surge in Washington state:
“There’s something going on in Washington,” says Peter Masundire, 47, a health-care consultant from South Seattle who acts as communications coordinator for Washington for Obama, an organization that operates independent of Obama’s official campaign….King County Executive Ron Sims, who recently endorsed Clinton and signed on as her campaign cochair for this state, wouldn’t bite on the question of why Obama’s been doing so well in Washington. Instead, Sims simply repeated one pro-Clinton talking point: “Any poll that’s been done shows that she’s ahead, even here.” I asked: What about Obama’s money momentum in Washington? Sims: “The fact is, Senator Clinton leads in the polls in this state.” I asked: What about Obama’s strong grassroots support here? Sims: “Senator Clinton is the poll leader here.”
Knowing that there have been few polls of Washington State voters on the Democratic primary slate, I asked Sims what “polls” he was referring to. He had only one: a SurveyUSA poll from May showing Clinton at 38 percent, Obama at 30 percent, and Edwards at 19 percent.
A four-month-old poll is hardly a definitive rebuttal to the sense that Obama has become Washington’s man. And in any case, Masundire told me that he believes any poll focused on likely Democratic primary voters (that is, people who have voted in Democratic primaries in the past) is going to miss a lot of Obama support. Among the Obama enthusiasts, here and around the country, who Masundire believes are going uncounted: young new voters, people who only have cell phones (and thus aren’t on pollsters’ call lists), and people who haven’t voted in recent elections but will vote next year because of Obama.
Speaking of the D.C. prognosticators and their designation of Clinton as the front-runner, Masundire told me: “I think when the primaries come, they are really going to be surprised.”
too bad washington doesnt really have much of a say in the nominee since our primary is after super tuesday even.
Washington State is a bit weird when it comes to primaries. I will never forget the 1988 election, when Pat Roberson won the republican primary and Jesse Jackson won the democratic primary. This despite being relatively late in the primary season, when it was obvious that neither of those two candidate had any hope of winning.
It is obvious we in Washington are on a completely different trajectory from the rest of the country. Obama polling well in Washington should be of no comfort to his campaign, nor should it signal any kind of national trend.
Personally, I'm hoping he can do it, but don't read too much into his popularity in Washington State. It's a poor indicator, and our primary is way too late to make any real difference.
I could see this year being an exception. If Clinton wins New Hampshire even narrowly, I could see it being a tossup going into February 5th. Then they could easily split those states, with Clinton taking New York and Obama taking California and the rest splitting between the two. And Edwards is not entirely out of it either. Washington's 2/9 caucuses would then be a huge deal.
I think the rest of the nation will take your lead... http://www.enewsreference.wordpress.com
As a local transportation activist and someone who has fought (usually in vain) in recent years to bring mass transit to this region, I can truly say that there is no elected official I despise more than Ron Sims.
So the fact that Sims has endorsed Hillary comes as no surprise to me. Why? Because if there's one personal impression I have of both Ron Sims and Hillary Clinton, it is of entrenched power. It is of the powerful holding on to power for power's sake.
Y'know, I can't really offer this personal impression as an argument against Hillary. It smacks of guilt by association. It smacks of questioning one's motives.
And yet, if Obama goes on to win the nomination, it will give me that much more satisfaction to know that Ron Sims's dream of a cushy, little job in a Clinton II Administration will have been dashed.
…
Hmm, on second thought, maybe I do want Hillary to win the nomination. If Sims doesn't get his sinecure in the other Washington, he could be with us for a long time to come.
It's a very slim chance that our 2/9 caucus will matter, because we come about 30th in the process, when more than half the total delegates will be chosen.
The nominee likely will be known by then.
Here's who comes first:
Jan. 3d -- IA
JANUARY 5, 2008:
Wyoming - GOP Presidential Caucuses
JANUARY 8, 2008:
New Hampshire - Presidential Primary
JANUARY 15, 2007:
Michigan - Presidential Primary
JANUARY 19, 2008:
Nevada - Presidential Caucuses
South Carolina - GOP Presidential Primary
JANUARY 26, 2008:
South Carolina - DEM Presidential Primary
JANUARY 29, 2008:
Florida - Presidential Primary
FEBRUARY 1-3, 2008:
Maine - GOP Presidential Caucuses
FEBRUARY 5, 2008:
Alabama - Presidential Primary
Arizona - Presidential Primary
Arkansas - Presidential Primary
California - Presidential Primary
Colorado - Presidential Caucuses
Connecticut - Presidential Primary
Delaware - Presidential Primary
Georgia - Presidential Primary
Idaho - DEM Presidential Caucuses
Illinois - Presidential & State/Federal Primary
Kansas - Dem Presidential Caucuses
Missouri - Presidential Primary
New Jersey - Presidential Primary
New Mexico - DEM Presidential Primary
New York - Presidential Primary
North Dakota - Presidential Caucuses
Oklahoma - Presidential Primary
Rhode Island - Presidential Primary
Tennessee - Presidential Primary
Utah - Presidential Primary
West Virginia - GOP Presidential Convention
FEBRUARY 9, 2008:
Kansas - GOP Presidential Caucuses
Louisiana - Presidential Primary
Nebraska - DEM Presidential Caucuses
I put Washington 34th because we are in a later time zone than KS. LA or NE.
Our results come Saturday night at the major media centers -- we'll be mentioned in the Sunday papers or Meet the Press and such. We'll maybe get one day of campaigning from the top 2 candidates on about 2/7 or 2/8.
Source:
http://www.politics1.com/calendar.htm
cxn:
"about 30th" not "34th"
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0535039220080106
wyoming went for romney! then again wyoming is a creepy desolate wasteland od america,worse then utah...the people out there are worse then blacks
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