Slog - Comments on Stranger News Hour on 710 KIRO http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/01/stranger_news_hour_on_710_kiro_5 Tonight's installment of The Stranger Hour on KIRO is at 8pm. I'll be on talking about the upcoming legislative session in Olympia and trying to make sense of the Democratic primary New Hampshire. Tune in..... Copyright 2008 Sat, 12 Jan 2008 14:23:43 -0800 Sat, 12 Jan 2008 18:00:05 -0800 http://www.movabletype.org/?v=3.34 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Comment by unPC NH primary analysis:

Each is worth 2 points shift to HRC:

1. non rotating ballot placement
2. tears-- not for sexist reasons, but just because showed HRC is human & cares
3. self deprecating joke about not being liked -- likable
4. Obama's smugness when saying "you're likable enough, Hillary"
5. sense among I's that Obama didn't need their vote, but McCain did
6. Intense media nastiness aimed at HRC between IA and NH

The next is 2 points against HRC:

7. Bill pointing finger/being mad

net result 10 points shift

BUT mainly all this had an impact in just 203 days due to (A) the intense engagedness of NH voters in the context and (b) the modern media and internet mean (i) all information spreads like fire on gasoline, and (ii) information today is more visual (so these little up-close, human" moments have a greater impact).

Sooooo...today 3 days is the same as 3 weeks back in '92.

And thus a 10 point shift is not so surprising.

PS--the Bradley effect could be there, or could be speculation. This is a Democratic primary, not a general election.

]]> unPC http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/01/stranger_news_hour_on_710_kiro_5#c897743 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/01/stranger_news_hour_on_710_kiro_5#c897743 Conflict of Interest Sat, 12 Jan 2008 17:58:39 -0800 Comment by unPC mea culpa: 2-3 days not 203 days

]]> unPC http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/01/stranger_news_hour_on_710_kiro_5#c897744 http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/01/stranger_news_hour_on_710_kiro_5#c897744 Conflict of Interest Sat, 12 Jan 2008 18:00:05 -0800