Conflict of Interest Stranger News Hour on 710 KIRO
posted by on January 12 at 14:23 PM
Tonight’s installment of The Stranger Hour on KIRO is at 8pm.
I’ll be on talking about the upcoming legislative session in Olympia and trying to make sense of the Democratic primary New Hampshire.
NH primary analysis:
Each is worth 2 points shift to HRC:
1. non rotating ballot placement
2. tears-- not for sexist reasons, but just because showed HRC is human & cares
3. self deprecating joke about not being liked -- likable
4. Obama's smugness when saying "you're likable enough, Hillary"
5. sense among I's that Obama didn't need their vote, but McCain did
6. Intense media nastiness aimed at HRC between IA and NH
The next is 2 points against HRC:
7. Bill pointing finger/being mad
net result 10 points shift
BUT mainly all this had an impact in just 203 days due to (A) the intense engagedness of NH voters in the context and (b) the modern media and internet mean (i) all information spreads like fire on gasoline, and (ii) information today is more visual (so these little up-close, human" moments have a greater impact).
Sooooo...today 3 days is the same as 3 weeks back in '92.
And thus a 10 point shift is not so surprising.
PS--the Bradley effect could be there, or could be speculation. This is a Democratic primary, not a general election.
mea culpa: 2-3 days not 203 days
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