2008 Letter from New Hampshire
posted by on January 8 at 9:27 AM
Josh, a Slog reader that lives in New York, sent this letter from New Hampshire…
Hi, Sloggers,
As someone under-25 who had never before campaigned for a political candidate, but caught a 4:45am bus from NYC to Manchester on Saturday to make calls and knock on doors for Obama over the weekend, I thought you might appreciate my perspective on the ground race in New Hampshire heading into Tuesday.
First of all, everything they say about the face-to-face, handshaking, lift-the-hood-and-kick-the-tires retail politics of early primary states is completely true. With fewer exceptions than I expected, everyone I spoke with was kind, patient, thoughtful, interested, and welcoming. In one “only in New Hampshire” moment, when I arrived at one house I discovered an Edwards volunteer finishing a conversation on the steps with the undecided voter I was courting. The voter turned out to be a Navy engineer home at weekend liberty from his station in Maine, where he’d returned after his most recent tour in Iraq disposing of IEDs. I got the impression that this kind of coincidence was typical.
As for the horse race: In the conversations I had with voters who were undecided, the people I spoke with seemed to be almost… seeking permission to vote for Obama. I heard a lot of “I’m leaning toward Obama, but…” and “He’s really inspiring, but…” followed by some doubt or worry (usually about either his relative inexperience or the lofty, generalized nature of his speeches). Over and over again, I got the impression from the start of the conversation that the people I talked to wanted with their hearts to vote for Obama but were holding back. Clinton’s argument that “hope is not enough” is appealing to voters’ most cynical fears about historical moments like this one, but the idea of an Obama presidency is tugging at their heartstrings.
On the other side, Clinton’s recent positioning doesn’t seem to be resonating with the New Hampshire voters I spoke with. While people seem to agree with her that she is truly ready to be president, her Big Contrast line about “hoping” vs. “demanding” vs. “producing” change seems to leave folks feeling somewhat deflated. Particularly with her stab at Obama in the NH debate that “we don’t need to be raising the false hopes of our country about what can be delivered,” she seems to have inadvertently positioned herself as being against hope. With the appearance of arguing that voters should not set their sights beyond what is achievable, I don’t think her message will exactly send people running to their polling place.
I think that the results from Iowa, along with recent news that he’s ahead, will assuage reservations about Obama with more of an effect than people have been predicting. And like the neophytes in this video from Sunday’s rally, I think voters are captivated by Obama’s answer to Clinton’s argument, subtly woven into his stump speech, that the greatest moments in American history—from the revolution to emancipation to women’s suffrage to the civil rights movement—were born of hope, and, as he puts it, that the biggest gamble is playing the same game with the same players over and over again and expecting a different result.
Based my conversations in Manchester, I think Obama is going to pull ahead from Clinton by an even bigger margin than he did in Iowa—a suspicion that, as you have noted, has support from recent polls.
In a caucus, people have to make known their choices publicly, a setup which might have discouraged those who were afraid to be thought naïve or blindly optimistic from caucusing for Obama. New Hampshire voters, of course, are famously reluctant to divulge their preferences. If I am right that people’s hearts in New Hampshire are with Obama, how many more of them do you think will vote their hopes in the polling booth, when no one’s looking?
I guess will know later today.
Yours,
Josh
P.S. Here I am at the Manchester rally, from a picture lifted right off Obama’s website.
So living in NH means a nonstop parade of camping volunteers banging on your door. Sounds great!
He looks hot. Is he single? What's his email address? Is he into the ladies?
If you really want to be deflated, read Dennis Perrin's blog today. I love him!!!
http://dennisperrin.blogspot.com
What an exciting thing to be a part of--thanks Josh
An interesting perspective. But Josh, are you sure you're not just hearing what you want to hear?
I guess we'll know later in the evening.
@5: he is there to campaign for Obama, of course there's some degree of hearing what he wants to hear.
will someone explain to me how evoking movements that had nothing to do with a government or a president have anything to do with running for president? it's not because anything any president or executive leader did that made any of those movements effective. it was collective, direct action by large groups of people who defied their government. which, i guess is a nice message to tell the kids about how they can affect their government, but it really doesn't have anything to do with whether or not barack obama is capable of moving groundbreaking legislation past congress, ending a war, helping us save the environment, overhaul public education, protect american jobs and interests overseas, be commander in chief of the armed forces, protect us against another katrina-like disaster, or restoring our standing in the world.
i'm not saying it's a bad message. it really is the truth that hope moved those things. but what's his point? i feel like a bit of an imbecile at this point that i don't see the extraordinary beauty of an obama candidacy. i do get chills when he says all that shit, so it's not like i have no soul. i just don't see how it has anything to do with what he's capable of doing as a change agent in washington. he really hasn't displayed, in his short time in congress, that he can back up his speeches with much. actual change and action.
and his environmental and healthcare plans are just not as good as his opponents.
Not that this NYC campaign volunteer is really fulfilling a journalistic role, but For more on this, Glenn Greenwald's "The role of political reporters"
[salon] is required reading.
Isn't this
"the biggest gamble is playing the same game with the same players over and over again and expecting a different result"
awfully close to the definition of insanity?
Just sayin.
The reality is that Sen Obama will make a great President.
But the fearmongers in the GOP and the Clinton-Bush camp want you to live in fear instead.
Americans are made of sterner stuff than that. We refuse to live in Fear.
(caveat, if you live in Fear, N.H. it's ok to live in Fear)
How about if you live in Hell, Michigan?
great report, thanks.
@5&6:
You're both right - I am sure there was some degree of rosy color to my perception of the political temperature in frigid Manchester. The article @8, applying the same principle to the press corps, is absolutely a must-read.
Nobody mentioned that I may have expereinced sampling bias because I was knocking on doors from a list given to me by the Obama campaign. That's why I was very careful to couch my perceptions in language referring to "the conversations I had" and was especially careful to say "I think" and use the word "seem" rather than "is." I-statements.
Still, I think we'll see my perceptions bear out. I heard similar things from the Clinton and Edwards volunteers who came up on the same bus, and there is the matter of the polling averages I linked to. (More here.)
I also think it's pretty hard not to see Clinton's attacks on Obama as un-hopeful, regardless of the other virtues of her candidacy - and I love her. It sucks that she's going to get slammed for what I believe was a completely earnest, incredibly touching, and noble sentiment in a moment of - heavens no! - emotion yesterday. It will take a little bit of the sweetness out of today for me if Obama wins. But that doesn't change the fact that in New Hampshire, you really can feel something in the air.
But I could be wrong. We'll know in about an hour and a half.
Tears for Fears.
Sorry had to say that. Its a bummer Josh, I really hoped you were going to be right. I don't know if Clinton's crying was real, but I wouldn't put it past her, after the cackle.
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