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Friday, January 4, 2008

Hillary Faces Gender Hurdle

posted by on January 4 at 12:24 PM

Josh has his pro-Hillary spin; here’s my anti-Hillary spin. Not to say that I don’t like Hillary — she’s currently my second favorite (more on why I’m not an Obama fan later today)—but the numbers indicate she faces one serious obstacle: Men don’t like her. What’s worse, women’s support isn’t strong enough to make up the difference. In last night’s Iowa caucuses, Obama narrowly bested Clinton among women (Clinton 30 percent; Obama 35 percent). But men voted overwhelmingly for Obama—35 percent supported him, compared to Clinton’s 23 percent. (Second-place Edwards took 24 percent of the male vote). Those numbers are bad news for Clinton, who needs stronger support from the ladies to make up for her poor showing among men.

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by this reasoning, is edwards facing a gender hurdle as well?

Posted by Cale | January 4, 2008 12:28 PM

Edwards was third in the entrance poll, but finished second in the actual caucuses,

Posted by Sandeep Kaushik | January 4, 2008 12:29 PM

"Third-place Edwards"?

Posted by DOUG. | January 4, 2008 12:33 PM

I blame her equivocal nature and the dumptrucks full of cash she gets from the pharmaceutical lobby.

Posted by povertyrich | January 4, 2008 12:34 PM
Those numbers are bad news for Clinton, who needs stronger support from the ladies to make up for her poor showing among men.

Well, I suppose that's one take. Alternatively, you could say that her failure to lead with either gender reflects some more substantive problem.

Posted by tsm | January 4, 2008 12:38 PM

Again, the 5 largest Muslim countries have had no problem each electing a female head of government in recent years. It's too edgy for most Americans and most Slog commenters, though.

Posted by jamier | January 4, 2008 12:41 PM

yeah, it's kind of hard to frame this as a gender-based problem when she's not connecting with either sex.

and this isn't about electing A woman, it's this *particular* woman. you can't subtract the human being from the equation. her problem isn't her woman-hood. it's her clinton-hood.

Posted by brandon | January 4, 2008 12:46 PM

Those numbers can't be right.  If Obama got 35% each of men and women, what group accounts for his 38% overall?  Trannies?

Posted by lostboy | January 4, 2008 12:50 PM

I can't wait to hear why you don't like Obama.

Posted by sprizee | January 4, 2008 12:51 PM

clinton clinton bush bush clinton?

no thanks

Posted by come again? | January 4, 2008 12:54 PM

@10 - Make that "Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Clinton", actually. And then maybe another "Clinton".

Posted by tsm | January 4, 2008 12:56 PM

Don't forget to add another Bush at the end of that "come Again?". Jeb can't wait!

Posted by sprizee | January 4, 2008 12:57 PM

I'm a man, I usually vote D, and I certainly don't like her. But it's not because she's female. I just don't LIKE her!

But you can bet your sweet bippy I'd take her before Huckabee...

Posted by Will Penguin | January 4, 2008 12:57 PM

@8: You're assuming men and women turned out in equal numbers. Far more women voted, so Obama's total percentage is 34. But the reason it's not 38 is that these are entrance poll numbers. They won't necessarily match up with the actual vote tally, both because of small sample size and the post-viability realignments.

Posted by annie | January 4, 2008 1:06 PM

My bippy isn't on the betting table.

Posted by kid icarus | January 4, 2008 1:22 PM

While your implication that male voters are holding her gender against her in some way sounds plausible, it seems just as plausible that many female voters are cutting her more slack than they otherwise would because she is female.

I'd be pleased as hell to have our first non-rich-white-guy president, but even so I find that strictly on policy matters my views are closest to Edwards. And I don't even like the guy.

Posted by flamingbanjo | January 4, 2008 1:22 PM

@5 and @7... "she's not connecting with either gender". Did you read the post? She's connecting more with women than with men. That's the point here. Her women numbers are respectable, while her male numbers are less so.

She may not be connecting with either gender as much as she needs to be to win the nomination, but she's definitely connecting with women more than men. And apparently farmers like her too.

Posted by Julie | January 4, 2008 1:25 PM

annie @14, thanks for the clarification, but I assumed no such thing.  Regardless of the gender ratio, if Obama gets the same 35% of each, the only way he can have a higher total is if somehow men + women ≠ total, or if ECB's numbers ≠ caucus tally.

It raises the question, why do we care about entrance poll numbers that are significantly discrepant from the vote tally?  Sure, they offer much better demographic breakdown, but it's a good breakdown of too-small sample with results already obsoleted by Dodd and Biden dropouts that the caucus realignments naturally (if imperfectly) compensate for.

Posted by lostboy | January 4, 2008 1:29 PM

Nonsense. Her lackluster showing has nothing to do with the fact that she has a vagina. Iowans -- 95% white, mostly rural Iowans -- seemed to have little problem getting past Obama's blackness. If they liked her better, they would have no problem getting past her vagina.

Personally, I like the idea of Hillary as president more than the actuality of Hillary as president. I'd love to finally see a female president. I just find that I don't personally like Hillary all that much. I'll happily vote for her in the general election if she wins the primaries, but I can't get all that excited about the prospect.

Posted by Reverse Polarity (formerly SDA in SEA) | January 4, 2008 1:30 PM

Yeah, ECB, if you're looking for a demographic divide in the results of the Democratic causus, gender is the wrong factor to be looking at. Obama won with men and women; Edwards was apparently second with men and women; and Clinton was third.

Age is criteria where you see the gaps. Obama whooped ass with the under-45 vote, and Clinton won the oldest demographic -- which, using ECB's style of hyperbolic extrapolations must mean that old people are racists, right?

Posted by oneway | January 4, 2008 1:31 PM

As for analysis, it looks more to me like Obama gets 35% all around and the only gender gap is between Hillary and Edwards, as Cale @1 points out.

Posted by lostboy | January 4, 2008 1:34 PM

@17 - Sure, but this isn't the only dimension by which the electorate is defined. For example, the polls show an even larger gap in her support with respect to young/old voters, didn't they? Why not consider that the crucial issue?

Posted by tsm | January 4, 2008 1:36 PM

Duh, second place.

Posted by ECB | January 4, 2008 1:38 PM

You are correct. I absolutely can't stand her. I'm a registered democrat and will not vote for Hillary under any circumstances.

Posted by Mark in Colorado | January 4, 2008 1:40 PM

@ #7 Brandon you are SPOT ON! That is THE reason! period.

Posted by Reality Check | January 4, 2008 1:49 PM

Is it mandatory that every insightful post by Eli be canceled out by something insipid written by you? This has got all the insight of a fucking DailyKos diary.

Posted by for_fucks_sake | January 4, 2008 1:52 PM

My dad lives in Iowa, and caucused for Hillary last night, she wasn't viable, but I forgot to ask what his 2nd round pick was. I really don't buy this argument.

Posted by what? | January 4, 2008 1:54 PM

A candidate with an out-of-the box 49% negative rating, who's in the pockets of insurance and big pharma, and who voted at every opportunity to support disastrous military adventurism is not going to be a viable Democratic candidate in a general presidential election regardless of reproductive plumbing.

The extremely irritating voice and mannerisms don't help either.

Posted by pox | January 4, 2008 1:59 PM

Some men will never vote for a woman, no matter what. They say they will, but there will always be something about a "particular" woman candidate that keeps them from voting for her.

Posted by crazycatguy | January 4, 2008 2:10 PM

News Flash: Women don't like her, according to exit polls from CNN, WaPo, and WSJ.

It's not just men.

I have voted for many women politicians in my life, including our current Governor, who's doing a great job. But it's hard to vote for Sen Clinton, and that's not my problem, it's her problem.

Deal with it.

Posted by Will in Seattle | January 4, 2008 3:00 PM

oh, and I agree with @13 - heck, I'd vote for Sen Clinton and actively support her over any of the evolution-denying combat-avoiding looney tunes in the Red Bushie party ...

Posted by Will in Seattle | January 4, 2008 3:02 PM

Have you heard about the Quarterback for the Packers?...

In a news conference Deanna Favre announced she will be the starting QB for the Packers this coming Sunday. Deanna asserts that she is qualified to be starting QB because she has spent the past 16 years married to Brett while he played QB for the Packers. During this period of time she became familiar with the definition of a corner blitz, and is now completely comfortable with other terminology of the Packers offense. A survey of Packers fans shows that 50% of those polled supported the move.

Does this sounds idiotic and unbelievable to you? Well, Hillary Clinton makes the same claims as to why she is qualified to be President and 50% of democrats polled agreed. She has never run a City, County, or State. When told Hillary Clinton has experience because she has 8 years in the white house, Dick Morris stated "so has the pastry chef".

Think about that for a bit. What real world political experience does she have? All she spews is rhetoric.

Reality Check

Posted by Reality Check | January 4, 2008 3:46 PM

Who's Dick Morris? Was he the pastry chef for some unpopular President who bombed a country noone cares about anymore?

Posted by American Reality Check | January 4, 2008 5:04 PM

Men don't like her, true. Also, women don't like her (Barack won among women too). Independents don't like her. Even the people that support her don't like her very much. Why would anyone think she could win the general election?

Posted by Mr Me | January 4, 2008 5:07 PM

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